It’s Week 7, which means that we are starting to separate the wheat from the chaff in the NFL. Luckily, they haven’t started separating the wheat from the chaff at QBList or I might be out of a job. At any rate, there don’t appear to be too many exciting matchups for this week, with many of the NFL’s high-flying offenses on bye or visiting teams that are simply not very good. For example, the Lions visit the Rams this week, while the Texans head to Arizona to face the Cardinals; two games that, while anything can happen on any given Sunday, don’t project to be particularly close. So, let’s take a look at some player props that are sure to make Week 7 more interesting than you might think!
Adam’s Betting Record: 19-23 (Getting back to .500 slowly but surely)
Chase Edmonds OVER 57.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (DK, -110)
On Fanduel: Chase Edmonds OVER 57.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)
As mentioned earlier, Edmonds and the Cardinals get to host the Houston Texans in Phoenix. You know what that means? Kyler Murray and the gang get to feast on the Texans’ below-average defense! And, the Cardinals will likely have the ball in their hands a lot. Since Davis Mills rudely showed me up a couple of weeks ago by throwing for 312 yards against the New England defense, he has come back to Earth, throwing for 243 yards and 2 INTs against the Colts, while the Texans ended up losing quite badly, 31-3. It looks like it will be more of the same against an even better Cardinals defense with a revenge game for Mr. J.J. Watt. With the ball in the hands of the Cardinals’ offense quite often, I expect to see Kliff Kingsbury dial up the points early and then let James Conner and Edmonds do most of the heavy lifting.
Edmonds’ injuries and production have been a little concerning in the last few weeks, but I’m hoping (and reasoning) that he will get back on track this week with some help from Murray and the Texans’ defense. Please, please let this be the week that Edmonds finally scores a TD.
Most Total Yards Without A Touchdown So Far In 2021:
Chase Edmonds – 479
Mile Sanders – 391
Jakobi Meyers – 346
Laviska Shenault – 326
Kadarius Toney – 325
Quez Watkins – 311
Bryan Edwards – 303
Sammy Watkins – 292
Kenny Golladay – 282
Julio Jones – 263
George Kittle – 236
— Russell Clay (@RussellJClay) October 21, 2021
It’s tough out here for Edmonds investors.
Also consider: Chase Edmonds OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (DK, -115)
Derrick Henry OVER 117.5 Rushing Yards (DK, -115)
On Fanduel: Derrick Henry OVER 120.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
King Henry. Against Kansas City’s 31st-ranked rushing defense by DVOA. This one feels like a no-brainer.
My only concern is that Kansas City puts up points in a hurry and finds a way to slow down Tennessee enough to force Ryan Tannehill and Co. to pass the ball and keep Henry off of the run. However, HC Mike Vrabel has still gone to Henry on the ground enough during those times that Henry should be able to cross the century mark in rushing yardage and then some. Even if you’re a Henry regression type of person, this week doesn’t feel like the week that he’s gonna come crashing down to Earth.
Also consider: Derrick Henry OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards (DK, -110)
Daniel Jones UNDER 229.5 Passing Yards (DK, -115)
On Fanduel: Daniel Jones UNDER 236.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Jones is going to be missing WRs Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this week. The Giants are also going to be missing Saquon Barkley to support Jones and WR Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and TE Evan Engram are all banged up. And, the Giants get the Panthers’ defense this week, which is not the juggernaut unit it was in the early weeks of the season, but they’re still projected to rank 15th in total defensive DVOA, so the Panthers’ defensive unit is no slouch.
I think Daniel Jones is going to have to carry the Giants’ offense with his legs, not with his arm. The Panthers get after opposing quarterbacks at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL and have a solid defense otherwise, which makes me think that Jones is going to do more damage on the ground than he is through the air.
On the other hand, Jones is still going to have to make throws to keep pace with the Panthers. He still has Slayton, Shepard, and Engram, who are good receiving threats and Jones has played with that trio over the past few years, so they have some chemistry together. I could see a game where Jones hooks up with Slayton and Engram down the field and makes 232.5 passing yards look silly. But, I’m just not sold on the Giants’ offense minus Golladay, Toney, and Barkley. The Giants’ offensive game plan in Week 6 was centered around Kadarius Toney, and it seems a little puzzling that you’d make an entire game plan around a rookie WR, making me not so sure that the Giants have much of an offensive game plan these days.
Also consider: Daniel Jones UNDER 20.5 Completions (DK, -115)
Alvin Kamara UNDER 129.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (DK, -115)
This prop is not available on Fanduel.
Alvin Kamara is going to get his carries and his receiving yards against a mediocre Seahawks defense. But he’s not going to get enough to reach 130 rushing and receiving yards. I’m not sure what the oddsmakers have in mind with this prop bet, to be honest. Take a look at Kamara’s game log this season:
Zero of these games have resulted in 130 rushing and receiving yards. What makes the oddsmakers think that Kamara is going to be able to do it all against Seattle? I don’t think it’s gonna happen, even in a primetime game.
There is the possibility that Kamara churns up the yardage against the 16th-ranked run defense by DVOA and then picks up 4 or 5 receptions for 30+yards. Seattle ranks among the bottom 5 teams in rushing yards allowed per game, so the propensity to allow big rushing games is still a worry for the Seahawks. However, I think that number is a little inflated, as the Seahawks have faced rushing-heavy teams like Tennessee, Minnesota, and San Francisco. And, with Jameis Winston under center, though, there’s a ton of variance in the Saints’ offense. And, I don’t think this is going to be one of Winston’s premier games, with both teams playing slowly and cautiously due to their QB play.
Also consider: Alvin Kamara UNDER 93.5 Rushing Yards (DK, -115)
Lamar Jackson OVER 305.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115)
Lamar Jackson is going to get another chance to put up big points and lots of yardage against the Bengals this week. The Ravens are down to Devonta Freeman as their starting RB, so my guess is that HC Jim Harbaugh is going to lean a little, teeny bit more on Lamar and the passing game instead of handing the ball off to Old Man Devonta.
I thought the Chargers would give the Ravens’ defense fits last week, but it didn’t quite materialize. But, at the risk of making the same mistake this week, I think the Bengals will potentially keep pace with the Ravens and force Jackson to make some plays. Plus, the Bengals’ defense (projected 12th in defense DVOA) is nothing to be afraid of for Jackson (arguably, though, Jackson has surpassed mere matchup concerns), so I think the main concern for Lamar reaching this number is the game script. Are the Ravens going to blow the Bengals out like they did the Chargers last week? Or are the Ravens going to have to work hard to win this game?
Also consider: Lamar Jackson OVER 239.5 Passing Yards (DK, -115)
Aaron Jones OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
On Fanduel: Aaron Jones OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Aaron Jones and the Packers get to take on the Washington Football Team this week. The Football Team’s defense has taken a step back this year, falling from a top-5 defense that carried some terrible QBs into the playoffs into the 19th-ranked defense by DVOA and Taylor Heinicke under center. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers shouldn’t have a ton of problems moving the ball up and down the field against this defense, which means that Aaron Jones should have a handful of opportunities to pick up rushing yards. And, while the Football Team has a solid run defense (12th by rushing DVOA), Jones can still break off a few big runs and pick up 67 rushing yards for the game.
Jones has also been able to pick up 67+ yards in nearly every game he’s played in this season. Take a look at his game log:
There’s a mix of defenses in here, some very good ones and some very mediocre ones. Washington doesn’t appear to present much of an issue defensively, so fire up Jones with some confidence.
Also consider: Aaron Jones OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards (DK, -115)