What’s up everyone, Jake (13-16 on the season) here filling in for Adam’s weekly player props article. Be sure to check out my own weekly prop bet article where I take a look at some first-half lines and over/unders. I know what you’re thinking: “Where’s Adam? He went 4-2 last week. We want someone who will actually pick winners“. I would be upset too if I got stuck with my picks, so feel free to fade me as much as you’d like.
Now, let’s get to some picks.
Marquise Brown O/U 62.5 Yards
The Ravens host the Vikings this week in the early window of the week nine slate with a fairly high game total at exactly 50.0. With the Ravens favored by six points, they have an implied total of 28 points, a very respectable number. I always say that the bookmakers are smarter than me, so I’m inclined to believe the number will be right around there, I’d actually guess it’s a little higher. Ravens over 28.0 is not an official pick (unless it wins). 28 points will require the Ravens to move the ball plenty, and nobody is more set up for success than Marquise Brown.
The Ravens are coming off the bye, but prior to the week off, Brown had 14 targets against the Bengals with an average depth of target of over 23 yards. He’s quickly become Lamar Jackson’s go-to receiver, even with Rashod Bateman on the field. The opportunity should be there, and the matchup favors Brown as well. The Vikings are allowing opponents to pass for 246 yards per game, which falls right in the middle of the league while facing some bad pass offenses like the Panthers and the Lions. Just last week the Vikings allowed three different receivers to go over this mark against Cooper Rush’s Cowboys. And if you’re not already convinced, the Vikings’ outside cornerbacks are slow; both of them clocking 40 times at over 4.6 whereas Marquise Brown runs about a 4.3. Assuming the Ravens continue to throw the ball at the rate they have this season, this over could hit on just two or three receptions. Oh, and the Vikings’ top pass rusher Danielle Hunter is out for the season, giving Lamar Jackson even more time to throw the ball down the field.
The Pick: OVER 62.5 Yards (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyreek Hill O/U 5.5 Receptions
The Chiefs have spent much of this season looking like shells of their former selves, coming into this week at 4-4. Betting against the Chiefs every week has been a good strategy so far, and at 7.5 point favorites this week, Vegas seems to be backing the Chiefs yet again against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. The Chiefs scraped out a win against the Giants last week while scoring only 20 points, but did seem to find out that when you throw Tyreek Hill the ball, good things tend to happen. Hill had a whopping 18 targets that he turned into 12 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 48 times and saw his average depth of target drop slightly from his season average as the Chiefs seemed more content to be methodical on offense and pick up first downs rather than going for it all in one play.
The line for Tyreek’s receptions is set at 5.5 for this contest, a number he’s eclipsed in five of eight weeks so far. Most teams have been content to attack the Packers through the air, they’ve seen 60% pass plays this season. The Chiefs are also happy to throw the ball, throwing on 65% of plays. Jordan Love is quarterbacking the Packers which could cause the Chiefs to get out to a quick lead and have less of a need to throw the ball, but Mahomes has thrown the ball at least 30 times in every game this season which could be enough for Hill to amass six receptions. Not unlike my previous pick, the Packers also have cornerbacks on the slower side with two of their corners running 4.6 40s; Eric Stokes likely has the speed to keep up with Hill, but he’s lacking in the other departments, allowing 13 yards per catch and an over 50% catch rate. I could see this line moving up to 6.0 by game time, but I can easily picture a seven or eight catch game for Hill.
The Pick: Over 5.5 Receptions (-130, DraftKings SportsBook)
Matthew Stafford O/U 2.5 TD Passes
Let me start this off by clarifying that I have a bias here; I’m not a Rams fan, but they are my Super Bowl pick and I believe Matt Stafford has a great chance at MVP. The Rams offense is unbelievable, led by Stafford and Cooper Kupp. Matt Stafford is 6-1 for MVP at the moment and I think it’s the best odds you’ll get him at for the rest of the season (Also not an official pick, unless it wins). The line for the Rams team total is set at o/u 30.5, total touchdowns are set at o/u 3.5; we should see plenty of scoring in this one. The Titans don’t have a good pass defense at all, and Sean McVay is one of the best in the business at scheming guys open, regardless of matchup.
Greg Mabin, Elijah Molden, Janoris Jenkins. Not a very intimidating group of cornerbacks, especially when you consider the receivers on the other side in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. One matchup, in particular, to look out for is Kupp vs Molden out of the slot. Kupp is putting up the best numbers of his career this season, and he’s got a sizeable size advantage against Molden, about four inches and 20 pounds. He’s a touchdown machine, having scored ten so far this year, making himself a huge red zone threat. This isn’t about Kupp though, that’s just one matchup for Stafford to exploit. The offensive philosophy for the Rams also lends itself to touchdown passes. Inside the red zone, the Rams are throwing the ball on 56% of plays, inside the ten yard line that number jumps all the way up to 63%. The Rams can score from anywhere on the field with their explosive pass game, and being near the endzone doesn’t deter them from throwing the ball. Look for Stafford to sling it all over the yard on Sunday and hopefully find his teammates in the endzone
Pick: Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)