Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
We made it! The first week of the season is here and we are here to help you avoid overreacting to the first set of games this week. Coming into Sunday I anticipated a nice offensive battle between Atlanta and Minnesota since they both return a lot of skilled players on offense and they would be playing in a dome. This game did not turn out as I expected but hey, it’s the NFL. Let’s take a look at what we saw:
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
- Matt Ryan: 33/46, 304 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
This was a sluggish performance by Matt Ryan as he was pressured for most of the game. The Vikings tallied seven hits on him and sacked him four times while he was running for his life most of the afternoon. The Falcons were shut out until the 4th quarter when Ryan found Calvin Ridley on a 4th and 5 from the 20-yard line on a beautiful fade route down the left sideline. Ryan then found Julio Jones on an endzone fade route towards the end of the game to salvage his fantasy day. The game flow was great for Ryan as he attempted 46 passes but since he was pressured most of the day he was unable to get into a rhythm. Look for him to bounce back next week versus the Eagles at home.
Running Backs
- Ito Smith: 6 carries, 31 yards | 1 target, 1 catch, 9 yards
- Devonta Freeman: 8 carries, 19 yards | 4 targets, 3 catches, 12 yards
Game flow was AWFUL for the running backs in this game as the Vikings quickly jumped up 14-0 in the first quarter and had as large as a 28 point lead. Devonta Freeman had 11 touches in this game but wasn’t able to showcase that he looks to be a safe RB2 most weeks due to the game flow. Ito Smith looks to be the clear handcuff to Freeman and could have a Tevin Colman type role if anything were to happen to Freeman. I’ll chalk this game up to an awesome defensive performance by the Vikings and look for Freeman to get on track next week versus the Eagles at home.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Julio Jones: 11 targets, 6 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD
- Austin Hooper: 9 targets, 9 catches, 77 yards
- Calvin Ridley: 6 targets, 4 catches, 64 yards, 1 TD
- Mohamed Sanu: 6 targets, 5 catches, 57 yards
- Justin Hardy: 5 targets, 4 catches, 41 yards
There were lots of targets to go around for the whole offense in this one as Matt Ryan had 46 pass attempts. Julio Jones was heavily targeted coming off of his newly signed contract and he even found the endzone on a nice fade route against Mark Fields. If Julio continues to get this workload and can make it through the whole season, he could be a league winner. Austin Hooper did most of his damage in the second half on dump-off throws by Ryan but all in all, he could be a top ten tight end if he gets this much volume. Don’t expect 9 targets every week (or for him to catch all of them) but hey it’s the tight end position. Calvin Ridley should be able to build on this and be a viable WR2 – WR3 most weeks in a high powered offense. Mohamed Sanu is an underrated safe flex option in deeper leagues and I don’t think this is finally the year for Justin Hardy.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
- Kirk Cousins: 8/10, 98 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles
What a weird stat line from an NFL quarterback in this day and age of football. Kirk Cousins certainly underwhelmed if you started him in fantasy but hey, at least he didn’t get negative points. With Kevin Stefanski calling the plays for the Vikings now, it looks like they will be more of a possession type offense and it might hurt Kirk’s fantasy value. Last year, the Vikings played from behind a lot which led to a nice year for Cousins as a fantasy QB. This year, with the addition of Kubiak and Mike Zimmer calling the defense, if the Vikings get ahead it looks like they plan to run the ball a lot. This could hurt Cousins as a fantasy QB–and possibly his weapons–but I’m not panicking yet. Cousins did have a nice TD throw under pressure to Thielen on the first drive but that same pressure resulted in two fumbles.
Running Backs
- Dalvin Cook: 21 carries, 111 yards, 2 TDs | 2 targets, 2 catches, 9 yards
- Alexander Mattison: 9 carries, 49 yards
Well, well, well. Dalvin Cook might just be an RB1 after all. Watching him today reminded me why he was such a high draft pick and why fantasy owners were drooling over him this preseason. If the point of the Kubiak offense is to control the ball and hand it off to Cook as much as possible, he could very well live up to the draft price. The offensive line looked great run blocking for Cook while going up against a decent defensive front. If they can continue to create space for Cook look for him to be a matchup-proof RB1 when healthy. Alexander Mattison established himself as the handcuff to Cook and honestly a must-own fantasy option due to Cook’s injury concerns.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Adam Thielen: 3 targets, 3 catches, 43 yards, 1 TD
- Stefon Diggs: 2 targets, 2 catches, 37 yards
- Chad Beebe: 1 target, 1 catch, 9 yards
- Kyle Rudolph: 1 target, 0 catches
When your QB only throws the ball 10 times it makes for a difficult day at the office for the receiving corps. Adam Thielen looked like he was off to a great start on the first drive where he caught a 23-yard TD from Cousins after they were given a short field from a blocked punt. After that catch, Thielen only had two catches for 20 yards the rest of the game as the offense looked to control the game and tempo by running the ball. Stefon Diggs was designated active before the opening kickoff but barely did anything as again the offense was very run-heavy. I had my concerns about Kyle Rudolph coming into the year due to the presence of Irv Smith Jr. and after this game, a lot of owners may be looking to replace him for a hot waiver wire TE. I would hold another week as the Vikings go to Green Bay next week in what could be a game that the passing game would have to be more effective. Look for Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph to put up more points next week.
— Colin Weatherwax
What are the chances of adding snap % to the RB and receiver sections? Would be nice to have all that info in one place especially with all the rookie talent and opportunity this year.
Hey Shawn. Thanks for reading! I’ll have to look into how easily I could obtain this data, but it’s a great idea.
I’m in a FAAB league. How much can we buy into Brown this season and what kind of FAAb bid should I be putting on him % wise? First year doing FAAB. It’s also a PPR
Corey, why did you say Buffalo has an “offense that will look to run the ball more often than not” when their first run play was their 19th play of the game! They ran the ball maybe 4 times in the first half? Surely they’ll run the ball more than that, but they clearly showed with their no huddle empty back field sets that they want to throw the ball a lot more this year.
Hey Hartman – thanks for the question! It’s true that Buffalo started out running their no-huddle and throwing the ball a lot more. They’ll definitely throw more this year and it’ll be easy, they’ve finished bottom 5 in pass attempts as a team for the last 4 seasons. But when they threw more yesterday, it led to two punts, two Allen lost fumbles, two interceptions (including a pick-six) and a knee to end the half. Their play-calling was much more balanced in the second half and as a result, they came back and won the game. Devin Singletary was fantastic in the second half. If Allen can’t do a better job of holding onto the football, Buffalo will keep him on a short leash. Before tonight’s games, Buffalo’s passing percentage is 15th in the league at 60.32%. I can see them finishing somewhere around there this season. Thanks for reading!
Julio’s TD was not against Rhodes, it was against Mark Fields who was picked up last week, Rhodes shut Julio down again. Kubiak is not calling the plays, the offensive coordinator is Kevin Stefanski. Nice try, failed on basic level stuff, Won’t be reading you again
Great catch Rob. I just checked and saw that Rhodes in fact was not the one covering Julio on his TD. I guess this means the Rhodes are closed again! Secondly, the broadcast team was drooling over Kubiak’s gameplan in this game but I see now that he is an offensive adviser and in fact not the coordinator. Thanks for the comment. Looking forward to getting better every week!
Something I’d add in about the Ram’s not-so-sharp looking offense might be due to the fact that almost none of them played in the preseason at all. Same thing with the Packers. Same deal and one of the same conclusions I reached (also first game with new coach, for them)
Hey David! Thanks for commenting. I totally agree and my Bears suffered the same fate. I think it’s clear that players need some preseason time even if it creates a small injury risk. Hopefully things shape up in the next few weeks.