What We Saw: Week 1 2018

Seahawks vs. Broncos

Seahawks

The run game is a fantasy, and real life, disaster

The Seahawks rushed the ball 16 times for 64 yards on Sunday. Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny truly split carries, with each getting just seven touches. Carson rushed for 51 yards and caught three passes for 28 yards. Penny only rushed for eight yards, although he did have four receptions for 35 yards. The Seahawks have made it a priority to utilize their running backs as pass-catchers more often, and that did come true on Sunday. Regardless, I wouldn’t want this backfield in standard formats. 12-14 team PPR leagues can put Carson or Penny in a FLEX role, but that’s about it.

Will Dissly?

Seattle’s leading receiver was rookie tight end Will Dissly, who hauled in three receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown. Dissly is a blocking tight end, and while he will no doubt be picked up in plenty of fantasy leagues, he is unlikely to replicate those numbers in the future. If you are looking for a new TE, don’t be too tempted by Dissly’s hot Week 1 performance.

Doug Baldwin out, Brandon Marshall in

Doug Baldwin suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday and is likely out at least a month. After he departed, the Seahawks heavily targeted veteran Brandon Marshall. Marshall ended up hauling in three receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown. He would have had another score, but was called for an offensive pass interference on a play where he caught one in the end zone. Wilson went to Marshall immediately upon entering the red zone, and with Baldwin out I expect Marshall to see enough targets to merit consideration in 12-teamers. Tyler Lockett had a nice day as well, and should see an uptick in value with Baldwin out.

The Defense

Seattle’s D/ST scored just two points in standard fantasy leagues, despite three interceptions. Earl Thomas looked outstanding, with an interception early in the contest. Denver scored both their touchdowns with Thomas on the bench, and the defensive unit should be better once Thomas can play a full load. Still, they are a middling defense at best.

-Andy Patton

Broncos

RB Phillip Lindsay will be in a lot of “Waiver Wire” articles this week. He was a key piece for the Broncos’ offense today. With Royce Freeman struggling to get the ball moving early, Lindsay was given a chance to perform. He finished the day with 15 carries and 71 yards on the ground, and two receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown. Lindsay ended up with 18.2 points in PPR leagues. He is currently owned by 1.9% of players according to ESPN, but you should expect that number to skyrocket next week. The Broncos feel very comfortable having him in the backfield along Freeman to create a dynamic two-running back system. This might be bad news for owners that drafted Freeman as early as the third round, but don’t be too distraught. Freeman also finished with 71 yards on 15 carries, but he did not get a touchdown. Devontae Booker finished with two carries for four yards. The Broncos look like they are firmly in a committee at running back. It just looks like that committee is Freeman and Lindsay instead of Freeman and Booker. I would be dropping Booker in every league and trying to add Lindsay instead.

At quarterback, Case Keenum was both good and bad. We will start with the bad: he had three interceptions. Coming from a player that only threw seven interceptions last year, this was eye opening. On a positive note, Keenum threw for over 320 yards, something he only did once last year with Minnesota. He also threw three touchdown passes and finished with 19.2 fantasy points in standard scoring. His main target was Emmanuel Sanders, who was targeted a team-high 11 times for 135 yards. Sanders looked like the Sanders of old, running crisp routes and creating tons of space. Sanders was able to turn a crossing route into a long touchdown score. Going forward, I’d expect Sanders to maintain a great pace, safely getting WR2 numbers on a weekly basis with the occasional WR1 performance. Sanders is boosted in PPR formats. Keenum’s highlight of the day came on an incredible red zone throw to Demaryius Thomas:

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Thomas was targeted 10 times, but only caught six passes. Part of that was Keenum’s inaccuracies, but it was refreshing to see Thomas get the target-share that he did. He will be another safe WR2 with the occasional WR1 breakout. Courtland Sutton saw plenty of time on the field. Although his stat line was mediocre, he was targeted five times and could continue to see his role expand as the season goes on. I doubt he is on your fantasy team, but Jake Butt was the top tight end for the Broncos, targeted four times as compared to Heuerman’s one target. It is obvious that Case Keenum has added a new dimension to this Broncos offense. Going forward, I don’t expect Keenum to throw the ball 39 times like he did today. The running backs will continue to carve out their roles. The wide receivers will get their numbers consistently. Anyone who invested in the Broncos’ offense in their drafts took a bit of a risk. Luckily for them, that risk seems to have paid off early.

I would be remiss if I failed to mention the Broncos’ defense. Von Miller helped prove that the Orange Crush is not dead. The team finished with 12 points in ESPN standard scoring. They sacked Russell Wilson six times. They intercepted the ball two times. That being said, there was a big blown assignment against Tyler Lockett that ended in a long touchdown. They weren’t perfect, but they were able to create enough pressure and cause enough turnovers to be relevant. You are starting them next week against the Oakland Raiders.

-Nick Light