What We Saw: Week 1 2018

49ers vs. Vikings

49ers

The 49ers began the 2018 season with a tough loss on the road to an elite, Super Bowl contender. However, despite boneheaded penalties, turnovers, countless injuries, dropped passes, sloppy play, and poor tackling, they were in this game until the very end. In fact, if the team can tighten things up moving forward, they showed that they can hang with arguably anyone in the league. Make no mistake, this team is far from a playoff lock, but they play with heart and should be a difficult team to beat on any given Sunday. They leave Minnesota frustrated with the missed opportunities to beat a playoff-caliber team on the road despite excessive mistakes, but with the knowledge that they can, and will, play better. Most importantly for fantasy purposes, there should be solid production across the board. Let’s dive into what went right (and wrong) against Minnesota.

Jimmy G is mortal, but still better than you might think

The undefeated streak finally comes to end, but not without encouraging signs against one of the league’s best defenses. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 261 yards and 1 TD, but it was an ugly 45% completion rate and 3 INTs, including a pick-6, that dampened his performance and sullied the box score. However, if you didn’t watch the game, you didn’t see how many yards (and touchdowns) were left on the field. Jimmy G could have easily thrown for over 300 yards and tossed 3 TDs against a formidable defense. TE George Kittle dropped what would have been a long bomb for a touchdown, as did WRs Pierre Garcon and Dante Pettis respectively, though their opportunities were a bit more contested. As for Garoppolo’s pick-6, it came on a missed assignment where WR Kendrick Bourne ran a hitch route when he was supposed to run an under route, in addition to missed protections in the blocking on a lineup change. Garoppolo was hit 9 times on 38 dropbacks and had 9 deflections on his 18 incompletions. He was constantly under pressure after the O-line lost both OG Mike Person and then backup guard Joshua Garnett. But he didn’t excel under pressure in this game the way he did last season. Losing WR Marquise Goodwin in the first quarter didn’t help, but all three of his picks occurred while he was under duress. His line couldn’t establish any semblance of a run game, and he was under pressure on the majority of his dropbacks despite being sacked only once. For those looking for more positive signs, Garoppolo looked good on his throws downfield, most notably with a 22-yard strike to Dante Pettis for a TD and the aforementioned bomb to Kittle that was dropped – all encouraging signs after he seemed to struggle with the deep ball last year.

The run game may miss Jerick McKinnon, but it misses open running lanes more

HC Kyle Shanahan’s system is predicated on the play-action. The 49ers struggled mightily to open up any running lanes. This was most notable in the first half when RB Alfred Morris was stuffed twice on the goal line, fumbling twice. He recovered his first gaffe, but the second one resulted in a crushing turnover. Morris finished with a disappointing, but expected, 12 carries for 38 yards, and a pedestrian 3.2 yards-per-carry. Backfield mate Matt Breida out-gained Morris 46 yards to 38, with a healthier but unspectacular 4.2 ypc. Breida also caught 1 pass for 5 yards on two targets. Neither back was able to put much together on the ground against Minnesota’s elite front seven.

Shanahan’s eye for receiver talent continues to be a boon

Pierre Garcon’s career exploded in Washington when Shanahan took over there as OC. And Marquise Goodwin went from one-trick deep threat in Buffalo to a borderline WR1 last season in San Francisco. The 49ers 2nd round selection of Dante Pettis in this year’s draft raised a few eyebrows, but Pettis proved both his versatility and explosive ability against a top flight secondary. When Goodwin left in the first half with a quad injury, Pettis turned on the jets and caught 2 of his 5 targets for 61 yards (a 30.5-yard average), including a fine 22 yard over the shoulder grab in the end zone. He dropped another deep ball in the end zone on a tough contested catch, but he also had a nifty 14-yard punt return. He’s a threat to score in multiple ways, and Shanahan could continue to find creative ways to use him as the season progresses.

George Kittle is a thing now, and the 49ers will spread the ball around

In the Game Preview article, I remarked that the 49ers’ best chance to move the ball and put up points may be through red zone maven TE George Kittle and underneath targets like Pettis, WR Trent Taylor, and fullback Kyle Juszczk (1 catch for 56 yards) given the Vikings’ strong corners on the perimeter and the fact they were starting a rookie in the slot at DB. Ultimately, that’s exactly what happened, as Pettis provided a few big plays and Kittle finished with a team-leading 5 catches for 90 yards on 9 targets. Kittle would have had a massive game had he held onto that deep ball for a TD, but all things considered, this was still a very productive game from the young TE. Marquise Goodwin finished the game without a catch after getting injured, and Garcon predictably struggled against star DB Xavier Rhodes, hauling in just 2 of his 6 targets for a modest 21 yards.

The defense isn’t great… but it might not be bad

DeForest Buckner embarked on what should be a strong DPOY campaign with 2.5 sacks and a lot of disruption on the line. Fellow defensive lineman Arik Armstead held down the fort against the run and beat protections inside rather frequently to pressure QB Kirk Cousins. Many expected WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to run wild against corners Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon, but a 22-yard touchdown to Diggs on a ball that could not have been more perfectly placed by Cousins was really the only big blow they allowed. Thielen did finish with 6 catches for 102 yards, but he needed 12 targets to do it.

Fantasy Outlook

Jimmy Garoppolo still looks as advertised (strong, backend QB1) and should deliver in better matchups. He’s got a new, explosive weapon in Dante Pettis to pair with speedster Marquise Goodwin (whose injury does not appear serious) and athletic freak TE George Kittle. Pierre Garcon should remain a consistent possession receiver who will get his chances in the red zone. Kittle looks poised for a big year and may graduate from “sleeper” to top 10 option. The run game may prove problematic in difficult matchups, as the line didn’t hold up as well as it needs to and RBs Alfred Morris and Matt Breida lack the elite talent to compensate. That being said, better days lay ahead for the duo as the new line continues to gel the the 49ers tighten up their sloppy play. Both should remain squarely in the RB3 range until one hopefully emerges onto the low-end RB2 radar. The defense should also be stream-worthy against lesser offenses as it bends without breaking, benefiting from Bucker’s sack potential, the impending return of suspended star LB Reuben Foster, a healthy Arik Armstead, and Pettis’ penchant for big plays in the return game.  

–Paul Ghiglieri

Vikings

Captain Kirk with a good start

Not to pat myself on the back, but I feel like I kicked the year off well with my player predictions where (almost) everything I predicted for this game was spot on. I predicted that the San Francisco 49ers would lose their first game under the watchful eye of heart-throb Jimmy Garoppolo. Check. I also predicted a business-like game from Kirk Cousins where he would go 22-35 for 232 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Well I was close…really close…but just because he wanted to make SKOL Nation excited about their new signal caller, he decided to one-up me. Cousins went 20-36 for 244 yards with 2 TDs and a pretty zero interceptions. He laid a beautiful 22 yard pass into the arms of Stefon Diggs (see below) for a touchdown and added one more later to his new favorite 6’6” security blanket, Kyle Rudolph, from 11 yards out. This was a day that will be common for Cousins this year, a ho-hum, get ‘er done kind of day and trust me…YOU’LL LIKE THAT!

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Running Backs (not) Running Wild

Okay, I admit it…I missed this one. I was expecting a more ground and pound approach from the Vikings with Dalvin Cook, but owners in PPR leagues won’t be too disappointed with his final stat line as he finished with 95 total yards to go along with 6 catches. He doubled the touch count of Latavius Murray, splitting 22-11 respectively and Murray ended up with a pedestrian 42 yards with zero catches. I will admit, the offensive line has me a bit nervous in this one, as neither back averaged over 3.8 YPC, but I’ll wait another week before I sit them in timeout. For now, just be thankful that on a day where the passing game was clicking, Dalvin Cook was hot in the kitchen, cooking up 6 receptions in your PPR leagues.

Wide Receiver U

Ah yes…now this one I am proud of. Here were my predictions before the game:

Fantasy Prediction:

Adam Thielen: 8 catches, 93 yards

Stefon Diggs: 5 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD

And now, drum roll please… here is what actually happened:

Adam Thielen: 6 catches, 102 yards

Stefon Diggs: 3 catches, 43 yards, 1 TD

You can chalk it up to a small sample size, but I’m going out on a limb and saying that they must read my work. As we will continue to see all year, Adam Thielen is just too good. He consistently got separation and Cousins was looking his way early and often, as he went on to hog 12 of Cousins 36 targets. To compare this to Stefon Diggs, Diggs only received 6 on the day, 1 less than Dalvin Cook. Now, as I said in the preview, Thielen is the guy you want to own if you are in PPR, Diggs is your main man in standard. But either way, you are never sitting either one of these guys on your bench in any league if they are healthy. If there is a Thielen owner out there that just isn’t….Hooked on a Thielen (I promise that is the last time I use it.) then I suggest you go make an offer, because this guy put all preseason questions to rest about whether or not Cousins would be looking his way. I was also excited to see Laquon Treadwell get involved with 4 targets, as he will be a flier fill in should Thielen or Diggs ever go down.

Rhodes Island

What can you say about this defense? They are straight up nasty! If you watched this game, you saw the constant pressure and disruption that they brought to an offense that everyone expected to come out firing, even with the loss of Jerick McKinnon. Well, so much for that. Garoppolo finished with an ugly line of 15-33 with 261 yards to go along with 1 TD and 3 INTs. He also finished with just a 45.1 passer rating and got sacked 3 times. Harrison Smith, maybe the best player that no one talks about, kicked off the turnover fun with a fumble recovery in the second quarter, then Mike Hughes returned a panicked throw from Jimmy G for a 21 yard score on a play where Garoppolo wanted no part of the three flying-purple-Jimmy-eaters in his face. Later, Xavier Rhodes would intercept a pass before Harrison Smith would ice the game with a late INT. Ride the purple wave this year if you have the Vikings defense because it will be a nice ride.

– Matt Dean