What We Saw: Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos

 

The Detroit Lions, holders of the #3 overall pick in next April’s NFL Draft heading into this game, traveled to Denver to face the Broncos in a battle of two teams looking to the future.  Detroit jumped out to an early 10-point lead but was unable to stem Denver’s offense, eventually succumbing to a 27-17 defeat. Denver controlled the majority of the game, easily outgaining Detroit 348 yards to 191.  Denver also held the edge in first downs (25 to 13), sacks allowed (0 for Denver to Detroit’s 4), and time of possession 36:08 to 23:52. Here’s what I saw.

 

Detroit Lions

 

Quarterbacks

 

• David Blough: 12/24, 117 yards, 1 TD, 4 sacks, 22 yards lost

 

There’s an old saying from the Disney movie Bambi in which Thumper said, “If you can’t say something nice, don’t say nothing at all.”  That quote just about sums up my feelings for David Blough.  Blough has been nothing short of miserable since being named the starter before Detroit’s annual Thanksgiving Day game.  Blough has only proven to the Lions he is not an option as a backup option going forward.

 

Running Backs

 

• Bo Scarbrough: 8 carries, 34 yards
• Kerryon Johnson: 10 carries, 42 yards | 1 target, 1 reception, 1 yard
• Ty Johnson: 3 carries, 20 yards

 

Kerryon Johnson was activated off of injured reserve this week, allowing him to get in some more work before Detroit wraps up the 2019 season.  Johnson’s snaps were wisely monitored, but Johnson looked very good considering the lengthy layoff. Johnson showed good burst through the hole and finished runs well.  Johnson should be entrenched as Detroit’s starting RB next season and should maintain RB2 value for 2020.

Bo Scarbrough got the first carry of the game but continued to look like nothing more than a downhill runner with good size.  Scarbrough doesn’t have the speed or elusiveness to be very effective as an every-down RB. Scarbrough is also not involved in the passing game, limiting his usability considerably.  Scarbrough may have done enough to remain a member of the team next season, but he won’t be a factor unless Johnson suffers another injury.

Ty Johnson was strictly used as someone who spelled Johnson and Scarbrough throughout the game.  Johnson looks like he could evolve into a decent RB, but the Lions refuse to give him opportunities.  

 

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

 

• Kenny Golladay: 12 targets, 6 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD
• Danny Amendola: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 21 yards
• Logan Thomas: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 17 yards

 

Kenny Golladay has been one of the lone bright spots for the Lions this season and topped 1,000 for the second consecutive season in this game.  I heard some fantasy analysts questioning why Blough wouldn’t pepper Golladay with targets given the lack of receiving weapons, and that’s exactly what happened in this game.  Golladay’s TD was the result of a great individual effort, catching a designed WR-screen and refusing to go down while lunging for the end zone. Golladay’s stat line should have been better, but a video review late in the fourth quarter upheld an incomplete call on the field despite what appeared to be obvious evidence to the contrary.  Regardless, Golladay should continue to be a solid WR2 with WR1 upside next season.

Blough’s other six completions were spread among Danny Amendola, Logan Thomas, and Jesse James.  Amendola should continue to see the majority of the work out of the slot for Detroit, assuming he elects to return next season.  Thomas and James have been solid, if unspectacular, replacements for T.J. Hockenson, but Hockenson should become the primary receiving TE he was drafted to be next season.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, none of these options are really enticing when looking forward to 2020, though Hockenson could provide TE2 production.

 

Denver Broncos

 

Quarterbacks

 

• Drew Lock: 25/33, 192 yards, 1 TD | 4 carries, 10 yards

 

The Broncos may just have found the QB of their future in Drew Lock.  Now, while Lock’s numbers from today aren’t earth-shattering, Lock looks like he belongs in the NFL.  Lock makes quick decisions and places generally places passes where they need to be to allow his receivers to be successful.  Lock also knows how to move in and out of the pocket and shows the ability to throw effectively on the move. With some young options at key receiving positions, Lock could have a long and fruitful career ahead of him.  Looking ahead to 2020, Lock should be a viable streaming option early in the season with the ability to provide QB2 numbers on a regular basis as he grows and learns in the position.

 

Running Backs

 

• Phillip Lindsay: 19 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards
• Royce Freeman: 9 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards

 

The broadcast of this game focused on a number of signs from fans begging the Broncos to unleash Phillip Lindsay.  While I wouldn’t call this performance an “unleashing”, Lindsay saw his second-most carries of the season and turned in his second 100-yard effort in the victory.  Lindsay ran hard all game long, frequently running through the first defender and gaining what he could. On Lindsay’s TD, he followed his FB through the hole then made a great cut, causing Detroit’s safety to run into a blocked defender, then ran unimpeded into the end zone for a 27-yard TD.  It’s frustrating for Lindsay owners to see Royce Freeman continue to eat into his playing time, but if Lindsay can continue to get 60% or more of the carries, he’ll still be a solid RB2 option.

Speaking of Freeman, Denver seems to trust him more when the team is in a typical passing situation or near the goal line.  Freeman did see a slight bump in carries over the previous six weeks and was able to convert one of those carries into a one-yard TD plunge.  Freeman consistently sees the lesser workload, making him hard to trust as anything more than a low-end RB3 with TD upside.

 

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

 

 

• Courtland Sutton: 10 targets, 5 receptions, 41 yards
• DaeSean Hamilton: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
• Noah Fant: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 10 yards
• Jeff Heuermann: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 13 yards
• Tim Patrick: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards

 

Much like Golladay, Courtland Sutton is growing into a solid fantasy option on a weekly basis.  Despite being matched up with Detroit’s only Pro Bowl selection, Darius Slay, Sutton was still targeted a team-high 10 times and had several opportunities in the end zone.  Against a lesser CB, Sutton probably has at least one TD and two or three more receptions. Sutton uses his size and strength to overpower smaller defenders, making him an attractive target for QBs.  Sutton should retain WR2 value with WR1 upside next season.

Both DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick were crucial pieces of Denver’s aerial attack this week, garnering six targets each and, in Hamilton’s case, finding the end zone.  Both are bigger receivers with good speed, much like Sutton. Hamilton’s TD came on a shovel pass near the goal line in which Lock utilized a beautiful RPO with Lindsay before flipping to Hamilton for the score.  It will be interesting to see if Denver addresses the WR position in the offseason after trading Emmanual Sanders earlier this year, but if the team keeps the status quo, one or both of these players could make fantasy rosters as bench depth with starting WR4/FLEX appeal in 2020.

Denver’s TEs were held mostly in check in this game, registering just four receptions and 23 yards between Jeff Heuermann and Noah Fant.  The Broncos seem content to roll out both TEs, basically making both unattractive fantasy options as a result.  Fant has shown off his athletic prowess, making him the better fantasy option for 2020. Heuermann might have slightly more appeal in PPR leagues, but I think next offseason will allow Fant to move into the primary TE role and have the most fantasy success.  If Denver shows Fant will be the primary option, he should carry TE2 value with TE1 upside. If the team elects to continue with a two-TE rotation, both become bench depth for 2020.

 

–Bryan Sweet