Bills vs. Colts
Bills
The Bills entered the week with a 2-4 record, and did so with low expectations after an elbow injury to 1st round rookie QB Josh Allen that left the team with the unenviable position of starting veteran QB Derek Anderson. The Bills predictably struggled this week, losing to the Indianapolis Colts 37-5 in a game that wasn’t close at all. Let’s take a more in-depth look below at the fantasy-relevant information you need to know about the Bills performance from week 7:
How did veteran QB Derek Anderson look under center?
It may have been an ugly game for Buffalo Bills overall, but the lack of success wasn’t a result of poor QB play from QB Derek Anderson. Anderson finished 20 of 31 for 175 yards and that came with 0 TDs against 3 INTs. While Anderson cost the Bills three points at the end of the first half with an interception return that led to an Adam Vinatieri of the Colts field goal kick, the rest of his turnovers were with the game mostly out of reach. He showed poise in the pocket through much of the game, getting the ball out quickly into the hands of his playmakers which is all that was really asked of him. He also clearly understands the passing concepts that the Bills run, and he should with his veteran experience, but he’s a game manager at this point and the Bills aren’t talented enough to consistently win with a game manager under center. The result is a mediocre fantasy profile for Anderson and the skill position players around him.
Anderson’s 2.59 Time to Throw mark this week is noticeably lower than QB Josh Allen’s 3.15 season mark which really highlights Allen’s ability to extend the play. The Bills played a short and quick passing game with Anderson under center and it led to a conservative offensive game. It will be interesting to see next week if the Bills look to push the ball more against Patriots in the passing game and if they can muster more than 175 yards passing.
RB LeSean McCoy left the game early in the 1st quarter, is he expected to be out long-term and how did the backups fare?
RB LeSean McCoy left the game early in the 1st quarter with what was deemed a head injury. McCoy, originally thought to have a leg injury, is in the league’s concussion protocol after being up-ended and landing hard on the crown of his head on the turf at Lucas Oil Stadium on the 2nd play of the game. He could also be dealing with an ankle injury, but until he clears concussion protocol that’s irrelevant. The timeframe for McCoy’s injury is up in the air right now, you just never know with head injuries. I would expect that if McCoy is cleared to play, it will be a close to game time decision. It should be noted that he will have an extra bit of recovery time as the Bills play the Patriots on Monday night this coming week.
McCoy was replaced by RBs Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy, who did a good job in his stead. Ivory received 16 carries and made the most of them with 81 yards picked up (5.1 YPC avg) while also picking up 3 receptions for 25 yards. He did an effective job at following his blockers in the Bills zone run blocking scheme, and fought for extra yards consistently. He notably ranked 4th best in terms of efficiency according to Next Gen Stats this week, and the Bills will need him to continue running well if McCoy is out with injury next week. 3rd RB Marcus Murphy was explosive in limited action this week picking up 53 yards on just 4 carries including one 30 yard run in the 3rd quarter. He also caught 5 balls on 6 targets for 17 yards which highlights the trust that Murphy was able to quickly gain with Anderson under center. Both are viable pickups off the waiver wire if available and in need of RB help short-term.
Did anyone in the receiving core step up with QB Derek Anderson starting this past week?
As suggested in the game preview I wrote, WR Kelvin Benjamin was a favorite target of Anderson and quietly put together his best game of the year. Benjamin finished with 4 receptions on 5 targets for 71 yards (17.8 YPC avg). He continues to struggle to get open as he posted just a 1.6 avg yards of separation at target mark, but he looked more motivated to win his contested catch situations and came down with almost all of them. He came down with a few 3rd down and long catches, and just looked like he cared for once this season and that’s encouraging if you’re a fantasy owner of his. Expect him to continue being a go-to target next week as Anderson is expected to start again this coming week.
WR Zay Jones came down with 3 of his 5 targets for 27 yards, and he continued to look solid in the short/quick passing game. He continues to show solid separation skills with a 2.6 avg yards of separation at target mark this week, and it has led to efficiency catching the ball with a 60% catch rate this week which is close to his season average of 55.88%. I believe in his skillset, and if he had more competent QB play throughout the year, he would be more fantasy relevant. For now, he should be considered a bench or waiver wire option with upside.
TE Charles Clay was used sparingly in the short/quick passing game, catching 3 passes on 4 targets for just 14 yards. The Bills didn’t utilize his talents downfield, and the conservative nature of his routes led to a completely mediocre and fantasy irrelevant line. It’s become clear that without former Bills QB Tyrod Taylor under center, that Clay’s role in the offense is less valued and he should be considered a low-end bench option or more likely left on the waiver wire.
What happened to the Bills D/ST unit?
The Indianapolis Colts threw and ran through Buffalo’s defense all day and the game was never really in doubt. The Colts running game was chunking yards against Buffalo after the first two series of the game. RB Marlon Mack went for 126 yards on 19 carries. RB Nyheim Hines had 47 yards and Jordan Wilkins had 46 yards on a combined 11 carries. The Bills D-line simply struggled which is atypical as they have been impactful throughout most of the season and are a big reason why the Bills were ranked top 10 in both rush and pass D according to Football Outsiders entering the game. A big part of it was the extra attention that was given to DE Jerry Hughes by the Indianapolis Colts offensive line, he was getting pulled and tugged and held all game and never was able to wreak his usual havoc. The rest of the Bills defensive line weren’t able to take advantage of the extra attention on Hughes and the result was a lack of pressure on QB Andrew Luck and open running lanes for the Colts RBs. The Bills defense was also put into a tough position with 5 turnovers coming from the offense. It will be interesting to see if the Bills are able to bounce back defensively against the New England Patriots next week.
-Adam Garland
Colts
Editor’s note: entry coming soon
-Michael Collins