Lions vs. Dolphins
Lions
The bye week was good to the Lions, heading into Miami with a solid bill of health and taking care of business. It was a bit of a strange day for fantasy purpose for the Lions, so let’s go in and see what takeaways come from this game.
Matthew Stafford is on one of the best streaks in his career
It isn’t translating to fantasy greatness, but definitely fantasy consistency. Matthew Stafford is on a five game streak of a 100+ passer rating, something he has never accomplished in his career (though he has come close on multiple occasions, a 97.5 rating in 2011 cutting his streak to four straight). He has five straight games with multiple touchdowns, something he has done twice, and three games without an interception is closing in on his career high of four straight.
The weird thing is his historic (for him) streak of low passing attempts. Three games at 30 or less passing attempts is not something that happens to Stafford. It’s a very strange product that Lions fans haven’t seen from a QB in well over a decade. So, naturally, we have to examine where it’s coming from.
There are two products to consider here, and neither of them are great news for Stafford owners. The first is the existence of a run game. Here’s a stat that Lions fans haven’t heard since the 90s: the Detroit Lions are a top five rushing offense. They run the ball at a 4.9 yards per carry clip, which is tied for fourth in the league. It’s not just a product of who the Lions have played, either. Five out of six of the Lions’ opponents this year are top 20 in yards per carry on defense (and while top 20 isn’t great by any means, it does mean ‘not terrible’) and two of the opponents are top seven.
The reason this is an issue is two-fold. First, the Lions are a legitimately great offense. They are 9th in the league in offensive yards/play, despite both the atrocious Week One fiasco and the nature of having a 50/50 split between runs and pass attempts. This means the Lions are going to score fairly often, and against bad offenses they will probably be shifting more heavily to the run late in the game. The other half of this issue is that Stafford does not need to carry the team to the end zone anymore. The run game is just as viable on any given play or drive, regardless of field position or situation.
Back to the initial issue of Stafford’s lack of pass attempts, we have to consider the coaching change. Jim Bob Cooter is still the offensive coordinator, but this offense is nothing like what the Lions have had in years past. This means any expectation on ‘return to the mean’ in terms of pass attempts is meaningless. There is no mean to return to, as we have no idea what the mean actually is for this scheme and coaching staff. Stafford could legitimately be a low attempt, high efficiency quarterback for the rest of this season. We won’t fully know until the season is nearly finished.
To boil all of that down to a simple sentence, Stafford isn’t throwing the ball that much anymore and it could very easily stay that way due to pretty much every factor.
The receivers hit new lows on Sunday pretty much across the board
None of the Lions wide receivers blanked you this week, but none of them met any expectations. Golden Tate was the closest to being helpful to the fantasy world, but Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones were non-existent.
There isn’t really much to say about this one. The Dolphins could not contain the run even a little bit, so the Lions ran the ball. On October 12th, 1997, the Lions ran the ball for 259 yards in Tampa Bay. Sunday was their highest mark since then, at 248 yards. When you run like that, you just don’t need to pass.
I hesitate to write this game out entirely for the WR corps, due to game script, but Stafford has been passing less and less for five games in a row. It’s worth keeping an eye on. If Stafford is continuing to throw the ball 30 or less times per game, the stats just aren’t going to be there for his receivers. Efficiency makes for a great NFL quarterback, but not great fantasy wide receivers.
The run game was the best it has ever been and ever will be
Let’s not pretend the offense is going to drop 200+ rushing yards on a week to week basis. However, Miami’s mediocre run defense against a fully healthy Lions offense is the reason I stressed starting Kerryon Johnson in the preview. He’s going to continue to dominate mediocre and bad run defenses, just by virtue of his talent, solid offensive line play, and the offensive weapons running routes around him. You can’t stack the box against Stafford and his three-headed wide receiver monster. Realistically, you probably can’t even have seven guys stay in the box. The more important factor here is that Johnson really doesn’t need 20 carries in a game and probably won’t get that very often. His low involvement in the passing game this week should balance out, however, and even though expecting ~180 yards from scrimmage for Johnson is absurd, a healthy 100 isn’t all too much to ask for outside of facing the toughest run defenses in the league.
LeGarrette Blount continues to stay relevant, but it’s obviously going to be a risk to start him on a week-to-week basis. He has TD upside, but if he doesn’t get in the end zone you’re pretty much always going to bust with playing him. Note that the first goal line carry went to Kerryon this week, a play before Blount got his TD. Before this week it seemed like Blount would always be the short yardage guy (which could return to effect since he actually made it into the end zone), but if his goal line opportunities go away, so does Blount’s fantasy relevance.
Tight ends got involved heavily this week
I will go right ahead and say it as clearly as possible: do not waste your FAAB or waiver position on Michael Roberts. I know the fantasy landscape for tight ends has been a struggle this week, but Roberts is not a pass catching tight end. The reason he caught the touchdowns this week is because the defense wasn’t expecting him to actually run a route. Could that happen again? Sure. Is it worth betting on? No.
The defense continues to rack up sacks
This was the first week in the season that the Lions generated sacks through pressure instead of coverage, and it was great to see. That being said, it’s the only reason they don’t have a bottom 5 fantasy defense. They give up points left and right and rarely generate turnovers. The defense played a solid game against the Dolphins that will statistically look average due to a 50+ yard TD surrendered to Kenyan Drake, but I don’t put that much stock into it. The Lions schedule is so brutal the rest of the season that it’s hard to expect anything from them on the D/ST side of things.
-Ian Rye
Dolphins
Aside from a few big plays, the Miami offense wasn’t able to generate a lot of movement against a susceptible defense. Unfortunately, the defense was forced to try to stop the run, something they seemed wary of doing all day, which allowed the Lions to take an early lead they never relinquished. Ryan Tannehill was out yet again, as was DeVante Parker. Parker may be an interesting case going forward, as insinuations after the game indicate that he was healthy and scratched anyway. On top of that, the Dolphins saw a couple of WR injuries that look like they’ll make the next few weeks even more difficult. At this point, the Dolphins (and their fans) probably wish that they had stayed in bed on Sunday.
Kenyan!
Frank Gore was the starter yet again, but Kenyan Drake showed why he was the most highly drafted player on the Dolphins this year. The highlight of the day was a 54-yard run where Drake burst through a gap in the line and was well past the second level before the defense was able to turn and chase him. Beyond that run, Drake was involved in the passing game and was the primary ball carrier during the second half. The day could have been even better for Drake, but Brock Osweiler overthrew him by about a yard on what should have been a 29-yard touchdown in the fourth. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses, as Drake’s big run was preceded by a pass deep along the left sideline that he got his hands on, but couldn’t reel in. While Drake was having success, Gore was running into walls of defenders and couldn’t generate much yardage at all. When the game was well out of hand, he was brought in to help keep a drive alive on a third and short, but was ultimately scripted out. One nice wrinkle for both Drake and Gore was the fact that there were a couple of plays in which they were both on the field, using each other as misdirection.
Injuries Everywhere (and WR takes)
The elephant in the room is that both Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson were both forced out the game with injuries. In the case of Stills, he already made a dent by scoring the first TD for the Dolphins and almost had a second. Wilson was yet again being used all over the formation, but after making a catch in the flat, he was tackled awkwardly and left the game for good. Brock Osweiler wasn’t using Stills deep (most of the deep shots went to Drake), but he kept Danny Amendola and the TE’s busy. Amendola scored his first Miami TD immediately after Osweiler overthrew Drake for the same score and was generally used to move the chains otherwise. Both Mike Gesicki and Nick O’Leary were used throughout the day, and while Gesicki had the better statistical day, but Nick O’Leary always seemed like he was seeing more looks. Jakeem Grant made one nice catch along the sideline in the fourth, but was largely absent.
Ball Hawking Doesn’t Work When You Won’t Stop the Run
Miami has become a defense known for interceptions. The problem with that is that if they can’t stop the run, the probably won’t have opportunities to catch sloppy QB’s off guard. The Dolphins allowed Kerryon Johnson to get yardage through the A-gap, through the B-gap, through the C-gap, and along the outside. The idea of edge contain looked like a foreign concept to the defense, and the Lions accrued 248 yards on the ground. Even LeGarrette Blount saw opportunities for 10+ yard runs, which is unconscionable.
The defense put the Dolphins into catch-up early, and a combination of injuries and Brock Osweiler couldn’t pull them back out, no matter how hard Kenyan Drake tried.
-David Fenko