New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
I spent a week discussing with local Patriots fans the pratfalls of getting out ahead of your competitors. Baltimore is no paper tiger, and with a high octane offense predicated on the run, and some deep threat wide receivers, I thought they’d game plan to keep New England’s offense on their toes. They did just that, to the tune of an unanswered 17-0 lead before the second quarter, demoralizing the hopes of a cakewalk and “us versus the world” mentality allowing the Patriots to moonwalk into their week 10 bye week.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
- Tom Brady: 30/46, 285 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception | 1 carry, 0 yards
Tom Brady showed up to your party, overstayed his welcome, charms everyone’s significant other at the party and puts a select couple of people in utter misery before he leaves the party with the prettiest person there. Those people miserable are the rest of the NFL, as they watch him breeze his way through their 2019 schedule like a sous vide steak. Thankfully for all football watchers that aren’t based in New England, the Ravens showed up (with their good luck charm Ed Reed in tow) ready to make a point that they are at the very least the second-best AFC team to make their way across the current 2019 schedule. Brady looked hurried, he did not look comfortable, and outside of a sneaky pick play to free up Mohammed Sanu, most of what New England offered in the first half was seemingly pedestrian. Brady peppered us with some smart throw-aways, a usual electrified banter on an intentional grounding, and attempting to find a way to out-think a Ravens defense that seemingly chugged Red Bulls before the game.
Running Backs
- Sony Michel: 4 rushes, 18 yards, 0 touchdowns | 1 target, 1 reception, 12 yards
- Rex Burkhead: 4 rushes, 18 yards, 0 touchdowns | 2 targets, 1 reception, 16 yards
- James White: 9 carries, 38 yards, 1 touchdown | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 46 yards
For the most part, the only way I can look at the Patriots rushing offensive is a system interference created only to push back opposing defenses from selling out on their passing game. So far it’s worked. Sony Michel looks mostly pedestrian, downright scrub-like for the large portion of this season, having a hard time mustering little over 3 yards per carry on the season, and under 500 yards combined, going into week 9. His carries have been chipped into by Rex Burkhead and his hard-nosed rushing and supreme blocking. His passing opportunities that were already suspected are completely wiped off the docket by the smooth silkiness of James White’s hands. So where does that leave us? Michel went off the board as the 23rd running back, from FantasyPro’s Average Draft Position, and even now that seems high. He’s absolutely a liability to start unless he can squeeze himself into the end zone, and Brady has roughly 40 weapons at his disposal.
From the current game plan calls, it looks like Michel is little more than an afterthought, and wouldn’t be someone I’d want to be at all relying on getting anywhere near the playoffs. If you have any Patriots fans in your fantasy leagues, see if Sony has absolutely any value to them. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes outside the top 30 backs.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
- Julian Edelman: 11 targets, 10 receptions, 89 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
- Mohammed Sanu: 14 targets, 10 receptions, 81 yards, 1 touchdown
- Phillip Dorsett: 4 targets, 2 reception, 13 yards
- Ben Watson: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 28 yards
Mohammed Sanu has arrived! With a pretty little pick play in the first half, Julian Edelman takes his spot right in the middle of the mantle and shares it with Sanu, as he allows a short, ho-hum reception within the 5-yard line turn into a Sanu touchdown over his own. Something about the New England water for these receivers makes them enjoy getting hit, and this is no different. Sanu has been in the system for a game and a half and has already started to catch up on as many targets as James White or Julian Edelman, and you can see why. Cerebral, and with the ability to seamlessly read and run a route, I’m already eating my words on a second-round pick is a touch too much for him. As we’ve seen time and time again, with players the likes of Josh Gordon, of Antonio Brown caliber, you are nothing more than a cog to a massive rolling wheel, and Sanu may just fill that role perfectly.
If we’re looking into the remainder of our fantasy schedules, Edelman will continue to be a top 15 wide receiver in all points per reception leagues, despite being a touch dodgy with the added mouths to feed, and if anyone has gained traction out of this offense, Sanu has moved from a third/fourth option in Atlanta to that same role elsewhere, albeit in a much more potent squad. He could find himself easily in a top 30 points per reception role. Buy, while you still can.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterbacks
- Lamar Jackson: 17/23, 163 yards, 1 touchdown | 14 rushes, 63 yards, 2 touchdowns
Did you guys know that Lamar Jackson is good at football? I know, I’m saying things that no one has had the cajones to state so far, but figured I should go out on a limb. Joking aside, this guy is an absolute joy to watch. Electric quarterbacks between him and Patrick Mahomes are the new must-watch workhorses behind center, and the ability to either hunker down and take off in ten-yard chunks, or unleash a pass off their back foot to any litany of offensive options really makes you wonder if the college game will start to slant to pro offensives built around these style of quarterbacks, preparing them for the NFL in this mindset. Under 20 passes behind center, and yet almost 200 yards accrued, between rushing and passing totals. So how do you defend him? Well, I’ll say this. As someone who wanted either Mahomes in the third, or Jackson as a deep sleeper in the 10th/11th round turn in all my leagues, I’m certainly feeling like the guy who got prime rib sold to me as throwaway bits. As long as he’s able to avoid catastrophic hits, I think Lamar ends up finishing his season as a top 30 fantasy asset.
Running Backs
- Mark Ingram: 15 carries, 115 yards | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 29 yards
- Gus Edwards: 7 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD
I thought that Mark Ingram was done when he stepped away from the Saints offense. A by-product of Alvin Kamara being honed in on by defenses. An offense predicated on two-tiered rushing attacks, and Michael Thomas. A quarterback the caliber of Drew Brees no longer finding ways to make anyone on his offense look like they should see a lei wrapped around their necks, shortly after a Hawaiian pro bowl. And yet, here we are. And I’m kicking myself. I bought into what the Ravens were selling. I put all my chips in, on the Lamar Jackson square at the roulette table. So, why was I out on Ingram? Maybe having a 30-year-old running back scares me (Ingram turns 30 in December). Maybe I had a belief that the offense would spell less on a rushing attack and more on Lamar Jackson turning the corner and taking off. Either way, as we look at the statistics for this game (Ingram averaging over 10 yards per rush, with ease), and an offense that quietly has as much firepower as Kansas City or New England, and anyone who took Ingram as the 22nd running back off the board, just prior to Sony Michel, well, they may have got an amazing discount. Ingram looks great, and Gus Edwards last year showed that anyone built into this offensive scheme built by Greg Roman will allow a large amount of fantasy value to whoever is healthy.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
- Willie Snead: 2 targets, 2 reception, 15 yards
- Seth Roberts: 1 target, 0 receptions
- Nick Boyle: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 27 yards. 1 touchdown
- Mark Andrews : 3 targets, 2 reception, 21 yards
- Hayden Hurst: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 15 yards
- Miles Boykin: 1 target, 0 receptions
- Marquise Brown: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 48 yards
What exactly can we pull from this receiving crew? There’s not much you can draw from it besides the sheer fact that there is volume to be had, but many, many mouths. 13 targets, spread out over 7 receivers, and one running back. It could be game-planning, but mostly you’d want to rely on the ones who can explode for big-play potential in this offense over target need. Marquise Brown is the shining star to keep an eye on, and that was apparent before the season even started. The 1 to Jackson’s 2, both drafted at the top of the Raven’s draft board, and the offensive options they want to build around. Brown is an absolute firecracker off the line and could be seen as the best threat offensively to come out of this draft. Compared often to someone like DeSean Jackson, Brown can run a route and bury you with his speed, often finding himself behind coverage, and outplaying any secondary competitors lined up against him. Brown is the long term play, but I wouldn’t want to have any stock in any of their receivers for just this year alone, other than hedging my bets on Mark Andrews if he starts to regain his rapport with Lamar Jackson he’s lost over the past couple games. His ability to pull down overthrown and high aerial attack passes makes him an amazing threat that will continue to see targets.
-Matt Bevins (@MattQBList)