What We Saw: Week 9 2018

Bears vs. Bills

Bears

A number of weeks ago, I joked about how easy a certain matchup against the Miami Dolphins would be for the Bears. I joked about how Brock Osweiler was terrible, and the Bears should win by a minimum 2 touchdowns. Well, I’d be lying if I said that didn’t stick in my mind with Buffalo and Nathan Peterman on the dockett. Sure, this should be an easy win. Remember Osweiller though. My dad didn’t fail to remind me of my failed prognostication either. Fast forward to a scoreless first quarter, and I was a little bit nervous. Well, the second quarter soon took care of that. First, the Bears drove 37 yards for a Jordan Howard touchdown. Then, Eddie Jackson returned a fumble 65 yards for another score. Three and a half minutes later, Leonard Floyd picked off a pass and returned it for another defensive score. The Bears would put up 28 in the second quarter, and win 41-9. It was a good week for me and my fellow Bears fans.

Passing Attack

The passing game really didn’t have to do much this week as the defense took care of business. Mitch Trubisky was 12/20 for 135 yards and a touchdown and an interception. I would say Mitch only looked okay, but he wasn’t really called on, so it’s hard to say how good or bad the game really was for him. With a small passing bubble, the receivers will clearly suffer. Anthony Miller led the team with 5 receptions and 49 yards, Taylor Gabriel had 3 grabs for 45, and Trey Burton was 2 for 28 with a touchdown. Every offense goes through these kinds of weeks, and things should bounce back a bit next week against a stronger Detroit passing attack.

Rushing Attack

The offensive bubble didn’t only strike the passing game…the Bears were held to 64 total rushing yards on the day. It’s kind of amazing that they scored 41 points while being held under 200 net yards on the day. Jordan Howard led running backs with 47 yards, but saved his day thanks to 2 rushing touchdowns. His touchdown upside should always be there on short goalline situations, so he offers value in that way. Still, I expect more Tarik Cohen when the offense is doing more. Speaking of, Tarik Cohen had a total dud this week. Five rushing yards and 1 catch for 8 yards won’t make anyone happy. Still, he did have a single point in PPR leagues…

Defense Recap

If you were worried about the Bears defense, well worry no more. They had 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, forced a fumble, and returned two of those turnovers into touchdowns. It was a beautiful day for the Monsters of the Midway, and this was with Khalil Mack sitting out again. It seems like the Bears are trying to rest Mack for the coming divisional slate, and this decision looks to have paid off. The defense found an identity without Mack, and dominated an opponent completely. Obviously keep starting the Bears, though I would keep an eye on Mack and what he’s doing.

-Mike Miklius

Bills

The Buffalo Bills had yet another tough week in a 41-9 loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears. Not a lot went right in the game for the Bills, QB Nathan Peterman continued to struggle with turnovers, the RBs were taken out of the game due to game script but weren’t doing anything special anyway, the WRs continued to struggle to come down with catchable balls, and the offensive line simply weren’t effective at their jobs. Let’s take a deeper look at the fantasy-relevant information you need to know about from this week’s game:

QB Nathan Peterman has to be out of chances right?

First, I want to congratulate QB Nathan Peterman for making it through his first NFL game, meaning this was the first time that he started and completed the same game without being pulled. It’s a small percentage of people in the world that can say that they have done that! Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news as Peterman continued to struggle with turnovers and poor play. He finished 31 for 49 with 0 TDs against 3 INTs, and 189 yards passing. Now his first INT of the day wasn’t necessarily his fault as it was a catchable ball that bounced off the hands of recent free agent addition, WR Terrelle Pryor. The other two were poor throws though and he clearly is overmatched at this level at the moment.

His 2.78 Time to Throw mark was middle of the pack this week among QBs which suggests that the offensive line wasn’t horrible in pass protection either and my eyes saw similar. The Bills were also utilizing a quick/short passing game strategy which explains the low passing yards despite the high attempts number. The result was the 12th lowest aggressiveness mark this week among QBs but only the 11th best completion% which again shows that Peterman simply isn’t ready to lead an offense efficiently. It will be interesting to see what the Bills do next week if QBs Josh Allen and Derek Anderson still aren’t ready to return from injury.

RB LeSean McCoy continues to struggle

We are now 9 weeks deep into the season, week 10 is almost here, and RB LeSean McCoy has just 267 yards rushing with 0 rushing TDs. What a disappointment he has been for fantasy owners! This week isn’t helping your concern either as McCoy managed just 10 yards rushing on 10 carries (1.0 YPC) while also picking up 4 catches for 19 yards on 4 targets. He struggled to find running lanes again this week, and some of it seems to be on the offensive line, but some of it seems to be McCoy’s own doing as he’s looked indecisive behind the line at times. Perhaps the scariest part about the lack of success this week to me is that McCoy faced 8+ defenders in the box on the least percentage of runs of any week this year. That means that the Bears defense was playing the pass, and McCoy still couldn’t find the space to pick up yards.

On the other side, backup RB Chris Ivory continues his successful run with 36 yards rushing on just 7 attempts (5.1 YPC) while also picking up 3 receptions on 4 targets for 20 yards. He seems be taking advantage of the Bills zone-run blocking scheme, picking up quality yards between the tackles by running decisively with burst and power. He’s been the better RB for large chunks of the year now, and with more volume he could be interesting fantasy wise but McCoy will likely continue to dominate the touches unless injured.

Did anyone stand out in the receiving core this week?

Presumed #1 WR Kelvin Benjamin received the volume to be fantasy relevant with 9 targets in the game, but only came down with 4 of them for just 40 yards. His struggles to create separation persist as he posted a 1.9 avg yards of separation this week which ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL. His struggles to create separation mean he’s constantly in contested catch situations and he simply isn’t coming down with enough of those 50/50 balls to be fantasy relevant. Continue to have him sit on your bench or more realistically, consider him waiver wire fodder.

#2 WR Zay Jones had one of his quietest games this week, catching 4 balls for just 18 yards on 6 targets. He’s proven all year that he can create get open and that continued this week with a 2.8 avg yards of separation mark this week which ranked ahead of names like Vikings WR Adam Thielen, Falcons WR Julio Jones, and Saints WR Michael Thomas. The game plan for Jones this week limited him in my eyes as he didn’t run a ton of downfield routes. I continue to believe that with better QB play, that Jones could be plenty fantasy relevant, but unfortunately he plays for the Bills. Consider him a bench option with upside, but a low floor due to the situation.

TE Charles Clay left this week’s game with a hamstring injury, which meant an increased role for TE Logan Thomas. QB Nathan Peterman checked down to Thomas often and he was able to rack up 7 catches on 8 targets for 40 yards. The lack of downfield routes limited his overall upside though and that’s a similar story to #1 TE Clay’s 2018 season to date. It’s become clear that without former Bills QB Tyrod Taylor under center, that the TE role in the offense is less valued and none of the Bills TEs should be considered as more than waiver wire material.

Free-agent addition WR Terrelle Pryor received 5 targets in the game and came down with 2 catches for 17 yards. You could tell that he was just getting his feet wet in the offense and expectations should not have been high in his Bills debut. One target was noticeably a game changer as he had a catchable ball deflect up off his hands and into the arms of the Bears defender. Not exactly sure what sort of role he can carve with the Bills at this point and how valuable it will be fantasy-wise, but he is mildly interesting so I’m excited to see how it breaks down and whether he can push someone like WR Kelvin Benjamin out the door.

-Adam Garland