When it comes to this series of Bust articles, it is important to keep reiterating that Bust has not been a bad player. Bust means that the player’s acquisition cost does not align well with the fantasy football production you should expect this season. It becomes increasingly more difficult at wide receiver, where as many as fifty wide receivers are going to have a significant weekly impact on their team.
When looking for busts at wide receiver, the primary two things I am looking at are target competition and situation. In dynasty, I always take talent over situation because you have the benefit of time. In redraft, these things are paramount because you need them both to be good this year and right now.
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper, as of August 15th.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
ADP 17/WR10 (My Ranking: 41st Overall)
Is this the year we see Adams finally hit that wide receiver age cliff? While I don’t know if it will be all Adams’ fault, the Raiders’ passing game is headed toward a disastrous season. With one of Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell manning the helm, the potential that Adams shows anything like his early career is limited. Last season was already a significant drop off from his typical value due to the lack of touchdowns, and that concern is still there for 2024. He also has to deal with newcomer Brock Bowers, who will demand targets as well. Adams may end up slightly higher than where I have this season (WR21), but the ceiling is lower than in years past, and the risk is much higher.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
ADP 25/WR12 (My Ranking: 30th Overall)
Everyone is waiting for the Olave breakout, but I am tentative to say it’s coming this year. Derek Carr struggles to push the ball downfield and has dealt with severe injuries in nearly every season in the league. The Saints offense has two players you are investing in – Olave and Alvin Kamara – despite Carr. Olave should see the volume necessary to surpass the 1,000-yard mark, and he can create separation at will. Olave is a low-ceiling, high-floor player in full PPR leagues. I wouldn’t trust him as my WR1, but WR2 feels right. We need to see his ADP come down two rounds so he can avoid the bust label he is heading towards right now.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
ADP 26/WR14 (My Ranking: 44th Overall)
One of the most unique playmakers in the NFL, Samuel can win in ways that most other wide receivers can only dream of. That’s why the fantasy world is constantly looking for the next Deebo. In the back half of the season, Deebo averaged over 18 fantasy points per game, behind only CeeDee Lamb. If Brandon Aiyuk gets traded, Deebo will jump up to WR18 for me. Until that happens, he is a high-upside player who has a lot of target competition. His WR14 price tag is closer to his ceiling than fantasy managers should be willing to draft players. For context, outside of Deebo’s breakout season in 2021, where he was essentially playing the top wide receiver and top running back roles, Deebo has only been a top-30 wide receiver once in his five-year career. The chance of busting is high for Deebo.
Stefon Diggs (WR, HOU)
ADP 37/WR18 (My Ranking: 64th Overall)
We started to see glimpses of Diggs’ decline last season. He is still a strong route runner, but his usage did change for the first time in a long time. Diggs joins a crowded wide receiver room in Houston and should compete with Tank Dell for the WR2 role on the team. It’s hard to project his usage, but don’t be surprised if we don’t see the Diggs of 2022 ever again. The risk is much higher than in years past as he enters his age-31 season. Going three rounds ahead of Tank Dell, there are much better options than Diggs in the third or fourth round of your fantasy drafts.
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
ADP 53/WR26 (My Ranking: 43rd Overall)
If the Steelers do not find a way to bring Aiyuk to Pittsburgh, Pickens will be in for a breakout season. I would be drafting Pickens ahead of both Diggs and Samuel in this scenario. The issue here is that Aiyuk to the Steelers wouldn’t just hurt Pickens’s value; it would destroy it. Pickens is not the most versatile of players, and while he fills the X-receiver role very well, there is little debate on who would lead the Steelers in targets if Aiyuk were to come to town. It is an unfortunate situation for a player that I had marked as a breakout before the trade conversations started. If you are drafting this weekend, it is too risky to draft Pickens before the sixth round of your drafts.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)