The wide receiver position continues to be absolutely loaded with talent. Every year, we are given players who fill the upper echelons of the position. The tricky thing to navigate with such a deep pool of talent in one position is finding the values, the sleepers, and the hidden gems. The answer isn’t always the young guy, although it might be.
I look at some key traits or circumstances when identifying players I would classify as sleepers or post-hyped sleepers. When it comes to traits, especially in today’s NFL, the two differentiators among players who are closely ranked or valued are route running and body control. Those two traits can elevate a wide receiver who may not have all the physical giftings of a D.K. Metcalf. I’m sure you can guess the circumstances I look for: an above-average or better passer at quarterback and the opportunity to see 135 or more targets.
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper, as of August 15th.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
ADP 56/WR27 (My Ranking: 46th Overall)
The offseason questions about Higgins left us hoping he would land somewhere he could establish himself as the WR1 for an offense. Unfortunately, fantasy managers will have to wait one more season for that. Higgins is the WR2 for a Joe Burrow-led offense. That is one of the criteria met already. Not only that, but with Tyler Boyd moving on and questions around who will fill the WR3 role for this team, Higgins, if he can stay healthy, should flirt with 125-135 targets. When it comes to his skillset and the things we care about, Higgins is great at attacking the ball in the air and winning contested catch situations. Last season, while he dealt with injury, his success rate did drop, but not to the point of being genuinely concerned about him as a player. He is primarily an outside receiver, and with Ja’Marr Chase’s increased usage in the slot and the shorter areas of the field, we could see some blow-up games from Higgins in 2024. You can draft him on the fringes of WR3 territory, and that is value worth capitalizing on.
Keenan Allen (WR, CHI)
ADP 62/WR32 (My Ranking: 59th Overall)
Allen has been one of the most prolific wide receivers in the NFL during his career. So how the heck is he a sleeper?! Well, as he enters his age-32 season, he has started to plummet in ADP. Last season was quietly one of the best of Allen’s career though, even with him missing time due to an injury. Now he joins a crowded Chicago wide receiver room but should be able to compete for the WR1 role with DJ Moore and play more in the slot in three wide receiver sets. Allen has spent his entire career winning with his route running and nuance, not his athleticism, so he could have more career left than people think. His profile could mean we are getting Larry Fitzgerald-lite. Now tied to another elite young quarterback, Caleb Williams, Allen is the cheaper of the two assumed top options in Chicago, and it is far from a sure thing that he won’t lead this team in targets in 2024.
Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)
ADP 99/WR42 (My Ranking: 82nd Overall)
It feels weird to say that Odunze was the WR3 of this year’s draft class, but he was. In a class that gave us Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Odunze somehow became an incredible consolation prize for the Chicago Bears. Odunze is an elite route runner who dominates in contested catch situations. He can win at every level of the field and has a fair shot to eat into both Allen and Moore’s snaps. That being said, it looks to be more of a slow burn for Odunze, who will have to earn that playing time behind two of the league’s best pass catchers. So why does he make the sleeper list? The answer is the late season and the playoffs for fantasy football. Odunze has already been one of the stand-outs in camp, even with limited preseason playing time. Odunze hits on every marker for a winning wide receiver sleeper except for the 135 target mark, and that is a pace he could be running at come playoff time, even if he isn’t there all season long. Odunze could win people their championships this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA)
ADP 108/WR47 (My Ranking: 67th Overall)
Smith-Njigba is going to be an interesting player to watch in the new Seahawks offense. He has the skill set to win at every level of the field but has a limited ceiling while competing with both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He also has to navigate a new offense in year two and hopes that Geno Smith can improve over his 2023 results. JSN has a wide range of outcomes this year, but if Metcalf or Locket were to miss any time at all, Smith-Njigba has a chance to flirt with the top 15 wide receiver numbers. Add to that his WR4/5 price tag, and he is an easy selection in the ninth round.
Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB)
ADP 160/WR65 (My Ranking: 106th Overall)
Wicks is my personal favorite of the Packers’ young wide receivers. He is a premier route runner and navigates spacing and body control well. I would not be surprised to see Wicks lead this team in all receiving categories in 2024. That being said, Wicks has a long way to go to earn that role. Currently, he sits as the WR4 on the depth chart. His current ADP of WR65 is going to rise as we get further along in the preseason, but if it holds anywhere near that, he is a screaming buy.
Ja’Lynn Polk (WR, NE)
ADP 170/WR68 (My Ranking: 135th Overall)
The rookie wide receiver who is being slept on the most is Polk. He proved in college that he has great route running ability and sure hands. He fell in large part due to his lack of athleticism. The Patriots may have found their top target earner for the foreseeable future. The early season could be a grind as the Patriots navigate Drake Maye’s development and protect the young quarterback from their atrocious offensive line. Still, once the two can establish some chemistry, Polk could take off the final month of the season. Polk is a perfect dart throw after the top 150 players are off the board.
Javon Baker (WR, NE)
ADP 250/WR83 (My Ranking: 179th Overall)
Javon Baker (WR, NE) – ADP WR83 (250)
Baker is a fourth-round pick out of UCF. He was initially at the University of Alabama before struggling to find playing time. The move proved to be a good one, as Baker posted just under 2,000 receiving yards in his final two seasons. The good news for Baker is that he has a chance to be the Patriots’ X-receiver of the future. My projections have the Patriots wide receiver room shaping up with Baker, Polk, and Demario Douglas leading the way. If that were to be the case, Baker should contend for 135 targets in his rookie season and be the opportunity-juiced version of Dontayvion Wicks from a year ago.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)