Dolphins @ Bills
Final Score: Bills 31, Dolphins 21
Writer: Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind on X/Twitter)
The Dolphins showed up and made this a closer game than it should have been. Buffalo sleepwalked through most of the game and still came away with a 10-point win. It wasn’t the greatest performance by the Bills, but it got the job done.
Miami now heads to 0-3, and with huge issues on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they have a real problem at QB and almost no way to address it due to their depth chart. Their defense continues to allow huge games and is a must-start matchup for any lead RB.
Two Up
- James Cook — Was dominant all game.
- Dalton Kincaid — Led the Bills in targets and looked great throughout.
Two Down
- Tua Tagovailoa — Averaged under 4.5 YPA and threw a terrible INT.
- Keon Coleman – The Bills receiver room is so crowded. The Coleman breakout may be on hold.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: 22/34, 146 yards, 2 TD, INT
Tagovailoa just looks extremely limited as a QB right now. He doesn’t throw more than 5 yards downfield very often, and when he does, it’s very off the mark or ends up in the hands of the opposing team.
He had Tyreek Hill open on a couple of deeper routes in this game, including a deep ball where Hill had a step on a CB in the third quarter and underthrew him, causing an incomplete pass. His INT late in the game was egregious.
Tua being at QB is a net negative for Hill, although he likely brings up the value of De’Von Achane since he is dumping it off so much. The Dolphins may make a switch at QB at some point; it wouldn’t surprise me.
Running Back
DeVon Achane: 12 carries, 62 yards | 9 targets, 7 receptions, 29 yards
You can’t love the fact that Achane lost a goal-line touch to Ollie Gordon, but at the same time, if he keeps getting 8-10 targets a game like he did here, it’s not the worst trade-off.
I thought Achane looked solid in this game, and he looks bigger than he did last year and better as a result, running between the tackles. Despite the Bills often crowding the line of scrimmage, Achane still had some nice chunk gains and nearly scored on the first drive, where he took the carry and bullied his way past one defender for a 12-yard gain.
The big plays won’t be as frequent as you’d like, but Achane’s PPR ability is going to keep him in RB1 status all season.
Ollie Gordon: 9 carries, 38 yards, TD
Gordon looks great running the ball. The Derrick Henry comparison is high praise, obviously, and maybe a bit lazy, but he certainly does give off a bit of a King Henry vibe.
Regardless, he certainly bullied his way to a couple of nice gains in this game on the Bills’ defenders, who looked caught off guard on a couple of his early runs. His TD run from the 2-yard line was also a thing of beauty as the Bills seemed to have almost zero shot of stopping him. The Dolphins would be crazy not to give him more touches, and you’ll likely see his carries tick up from here on out.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Tyreek Hill: 10 targets, 5 receptions, 49 yards, TD
I thought Hill looked fine in this game. He got open on a couple of big plays downfield, but couldn’t connect with Tagovailoa, who looks terrible on any ball thrown more than five yards downfield.
His TD was a nice route where he beat the defender across the end zone and then caught a lob pass from Tagovailoa, who put just enough on the ball to get it to him. Hill is a WR2 the rest of the way, but would have a lot more upside IF he were to get attached to a better QB.
Jaylen Waddle: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 39 yards, TD
Waddle was a big non-factor for the first portion of this game. He did catch a simple one-yard TD pass early on, but didn’t do anything else until late, when he caught a series of short passes and took them for some shorter gains.
I don’t see a ton of upside for Waddle in this version of the Miami offense, and we’ve likely seen his upside over the last two weeks. That said, if Hill gets traded, his targets could rise dramatically, so he’s a player I’d rather keep as a WR3/4/Flex option than trade away right now.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen: 22-28, 213 yards, 3 TDs | 4 carries, 25 yards
Allen looked like he was sleepwalking through parts of this game. He chose to mostly dink and dunk, looking to both Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir on many of his passes, rather than risk getting hurt on runs or taking shots deep. His nicest play was likely the 20-yard TD to Kincaid early in the game, when he caught him open on the sidelines. His longest pass was a five-yard completion to Elijah Moore late, which Moore took 25+ yards after the catch.
It was a semi-smart game plan because who wants to get hurt against the Dolphins, but it also caused this game to be much closer than it should have been. Overall, this is sort of how the Bills tend to play against weaker competition, as they only seem to throw downfield when really pushed by another elite team.
You’ll take the 3 TD passes obviously and nice fantasy week, but I’m sure Allen owners wanted a bit more from this A+ matchup.
Running Back
James Cook: 19 carries, 108 yards TD | 3 targets, 3 rec, 10 yards
Cook was fantastic in this game. His first carry was a 12+ yard jaunt where he got into the secondary, and he just rolled from there, ripping off more big runs and rushing for an easy score. I’d rate Cook pretty highly on the list of best RBs in the game right now, as he’s a great blend of power and speed, who also contributes in the receiving game.
At any rate, you have to love how he has destroyed two weak defenses in a row now and how the Bills have treated him as their lead back. Other than Ty Johnson taking three carries, Cook was the only RB from Buffalo to take carries in this game. Ray Davis (0 carries) is a complete non-factor.
He won’t face Miami every week, but certainly, there will be more great games like this from Cook this season.
Ty Johnson: 3 caries, 13 yards | 2 Targets, 1 reception, 8 yards
Johnson is a nice receiving back and works well with Allen. He caught one pass in this game and was noticeably the only other Bills RB to take a carry or do anything of note.
I view Johnson as the handcuff in Buffalo at this point and, at worst, figure he would split carries with Davis if Cook went down.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Khalil Shakir: 4 targets, 4 rec, 45 yards, TD
Shakir is an underrated player. He’s great after the catch and, for a smaller player, has a decent catch radius. He and Allen went 4/4 in this game, and his last reception of the game was a 15-yard catch and run he took from around the line of scrimmage all the way down for a score. It was a nice play and illustrated how Buffalo likes to use these higher percentage throws to take advantage of their players’ skill sets.
The issue with Shakir for fantasy is that Kincaid plays a similar role and is now starting to take away targets. Shakir will likely have his moments, and if this game was any indication, Allen wants to use him more because he trusts him more than his outside receivers.
For fantasy purposes, he’s someone I wouldn’t hesitate to try to pick up if the price was right.
Dalton Kincaid: 6 targets, 5 rec, 66 yards, TD
Kincaid had a really nice game for Buffalo, one of the few bright spots, overall. Allen was targeting him from the start, and they connected on the first Bills drive for a longer TD down the sideline, where Kincaid easily beat a linebacker in coverage.
This matchup was one Kincaid should have taken advantage of, and he did, but more importantly, the Bills gave him primary targeting. Dawson Knox saw zero targets, and Kincaid led all Bills in targets and receptions.
It could just be Buffalo shifting targets around for a game or two, as they often do, but to me, Allen and Kincaid looked very in sync. It’s possible this is the start of a bigger run for Kincaid and him pushing to become a top 8 TE.
Keon Coleman: 4 targets, 3 rec, 20 yards
After his breakout game vs the Ravens, Coleman now has just 46 yards and six catches over his last two games. He did draw a PI call on the first drive, but was pretty non-descript in this game after that.
Coleman’s issue is simply that Buffalo has an overabundance of different talented receivers and is efficient at using them all in different ways. Right now, he’s mainly the deep or sideline option and isn’t going to get more than a handful of targets much week unless the Bills get way behind.
The talent and upside are undeniable, but for fantasy, he’s stuck in that WR3/4/Flex deadzone range at the moment.
Elijah Moore: 3 targets, 2 rec, 30 yards | 1 rush, 11 yards
Moore has come on over the last couple of weeks for the Bills and made some big plays. His 30-yard catch (5-yard catch, 25-yard run) was the longest play for the Bills in this game, and it iced the game with about 2:00 minutes left. He’s getting used in a sort of quasi Deebo Samuel role for Buffalo, who is also giving him carries, and it’s working.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see him potentially start rotating more with Palmer or taking a bigger snap share. He’s an effective player who can help keep the defense on its toes and showed it again in this game.
Josh Palmer: 1 target, 1 rec, 5 yards
A complete non-factor, who didn’t catch his first pass until late in the fourth quarter. Not a player you need to wait on or really worry about for fantasy purposes.
Jackson Hawes: 1 target, 1 rec, 5 yards, TD
Hawes caught a highlight-reel touchdown on a shovel pass from a scrambling Josh Allen. He’s just another name in the Bills’ pass-catching corps to take away from the other guys.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)