Draft Prep: 12 Overrated Players To Avoid In Your Drafts

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Here at QB List we feel the best way to approach your draft is to break-down each position and draft the most valuable player that fits your teams need at the moment. While strategies like Zero RB or Late Round QB have become as recognizable to fantasy footballers as Cover 3, there is no single strategy that will win your league. If you are not willing to adjust on the fly, then you are likely to walk away from your draft disappointed and frustrated with your roster.

A great way to give yourself some drafting agility is to study the average draft position data before going into your draft. By knowing where the hot and cold spots of a draft are you should be able to react accordingly, without ruining your draft.

I am going through late week ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator.  These players are guys I’m not selling at their current ADP usually because they have questions on health or role.  I feel I can find a similar player later in the draft, while drafting a better player at the listed ADP.

Check back soon for the underrated list to accompany this.

Quarterback

  • Derek Carr (Early 7th ADP) – If you’ve been paying attention to the fantasy QB position this decade, it’s clear there is parity between the early to mid-round QBs and late round QBs. Carr finished in the top 10 among fantasy QBs. Andy Dalton had a down year, finished in the early 20s, yet averaged just 2 points less per week than Carr. Don’t get caught up in the Raiders optimism this year, I don’t see Carr with the ceiling of a top 5 QB.
  • Kirk Cousins (Mid 8th ADP) – I am just not willing to draft Cousins at his ADP. He had what looks to be a career year, lost 216 veteran targets, is relying on a free agent WR, a draft pick no one knows anything about and a TE that can’t be trusted. I like Pryor and love Crowder but there are at least five QBs I would be fine taking, all of them going a round or three later, and all of them within 3 weekly fantasy points per game.
  • Tyrod Taylor (13th round ADP) – For me Tyrod is un-draftable. Even though he’s going at the end of the draft, the job is quickly slipping away from him. The coaches don’t love him, they traded away their best WR and best CB and Buffalo is burning the roster down already. Wentz, Palmer, Cutler and Eli are all going around the same time. None of them are great options but at least they will be 16-week starters.

Running Back

  • Isaiah Crowell (Mid 3rd ADP) – Crowell is a below average back on a team that feeds him carries. What that means is we have seen his ceiling and it’s a low-end RB2. In the mid-3rd I’m looking for guys that can change the outlook of my team. The 3rd round is a waste land this year, where many owners panic and end up with Crowell. Don’t be that guy.
  • Mike Gillislee (Mid 5th ADP) – Gillislee is a puzzling player for me. He projects to eat in New England and maybe he would if not for the presence of Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead. Oh and New England has him listed as the third string back right now. Owners are drafting him this high solely on the previous season of a different player. I’m not trying to figure out New England’s weekly game plan. The smart play is to draft one of the other New England backs at value.
  • LeGarrette Blount (Late 6th ADP) – Blount had 299 carries, including 79 in the red zone, last year. He also changed teams. Two rules that have served me well in my years playing fantasy football: stay away from players coming off a career years and be cautious of a player changing teams. Both scenarios show an overwhelming percentage to regress.

Wide Receiver

  • Julian Edelman (Earyl 5th ADP) – WR targets translates directly to WR fantasy production. The addition of Brandon Cooks severely cuts into Edleman’s outlook. Add to that a healthy Rob Gronkowski, receiving RBs galore and we haven’t even gotten into the WR depth. New England is loaded and I see a big drop for Edelman. I’m not willing to ignore the signs in front of me.
  • Donte Moncrief (Early 8th ADP) – I have always wanted to love Moncrief. Yet he’s never received more than 105 targets. He’s never had a 1000 yard season (even in college). Granted he is a touchdown monster but his production is directly tied to Andrew Luck. He’s the classic player oozing potential, which often means he’ll never be NFL productive.
  • John Brown (Late 9th ADP) – A promising young career has been derailed by a concerning medical diagnosis: sickle cell trait. The condition may affect Brown’s ability to perform strenuous exercise, recover from injury, extreme fatigue and sometimes severe pain. Basically everything an NFL football player might need to succeed at playing football. He’s un-draftable for me. His ceiling is 1000 yards and 6 TDs, numbers I feel at least 8 guys going after him can produce.

Tight End

  • Jack Doyle (Mid 12th ADP) – I generally like where TE is being drafted this year. I’ll focus on guys I think should not be drafted in a 12-team league. I like Doyle, I think if we knew Andrew Luck would play 16 games he’d be a strong sleeper. Without Luck he will be asleep all year, and if Luck does come back I can find him on waivers.
  • O.J. Howard (Early 13th ADP) – In the last decade we have only seen four top 12 finishes by a rookie TE. Add to that the presence of Cameron Brate, who finished in the top 10 last year, and you can easily see a scenario where Howard catches about 30 balls. I’m staying away.
  • Jared Cook (Late round flyer ADP) – Cook is a recognizable name that has been drafted to a fantasy team as long as I can remember. The Oakland/Carr TE position has never been productive in fantasy. I expect that to continue. Don’t waste a pick on a name you’re familiar with, especially when the TE position is a prime target for in-season waivers.

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Marc Salazar

I live in San Antonio and I am the father of an amazing 6-yo little girl. I have been playing fantasy football for 15+ years and love everything about the strategy and complexity of NFL football. I run dynasty leagues that include individual defensive players, contracts, free agency and rookie drafts. I hope to introduce at least one of you to the joys of this format.

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