Anyone who has played fantasy football for a while has most likely heard the adage “you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it.” Our early picks are generally those we rely on for the bulk of our teams’ weekly production, and so it’s often a sound strategy to minimize risk with those picks. The inverse is true for the later rounds – these picks won’t lose your league, but they can certainly help win it. In the later rounds of drafts, we want to chase upside above all else.
In terms of process, the three most important things to evaluate for fantasy relevance are a player’s talent, opportunity, and situation. Talent encompasses a player’s physical abilities and measurables and whether or not they are a good football player (i.e. do they pass the eye test?). Opportunity is a player’s likely role and projectable volume. Situation is more about a player’s team; how good is the team, the strength of the offensive line, the offensive scheme and philosophy, play volume, etc. For early-round picks, we want to draft players with ideal combinations of all three factors. In the later rounds, we want to target players who check at least one of these boxes, with talent and opportunity being the biggest factors.
Last season, we saw several players who went after pick 120 – or even undrafted – overperform based on their ADP. We saw players like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Sam LaPorta, Nico Collins, and Raheem Mostert provide top-tier production at their respective positions. Other players like Adam Thielen, Rashee Rice, Gus Edwards, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell, and Jaylen Warren gave us solid stretches where we could reliably slot them into starting lineups. Ideally, we want to find those “league winners” who vastly outperform their late-round ADP and become fantasy stars; but even getting a player who becomes a weekly lower-end starter like an RB2, WR3, or Flex, is a small win for us in these late rounds.
This article will focus on redraft leagues, and the ADPs mentioned are based on FantasyPros Half PPR ADP (consensus of Yahoo, Sleeper, and RTSports). The players mentioned can still be targeted in best ball, but their ADPs will vary across platforms. Without further ado, let’s dive in and look at 10 players I’m targeting late in drafts.
1. Romeo Doubs (WR, GB), ADP 146.3 – Romeo Doubs led all Packers wide receivers last year with a 77.1% snap percentage, 96 targets, 41 first downs, and tied Jayden Reed for the team lead with 8 receiving touchdowns and 17 red zone targets. Doubs has good size at 6’2″ and 204 lbs. Though he may not be as flashy as Reed (ADP 84) or Christian Watson (ADP 103.3), Doubs has been the standout receiver at Packers training camp, drawing high praise from CB Jaire Alexander. Doubs also led the the Packers in targets and receiving yards in both playoff games drawing six targets in each, finishing with lines of 6-151-1 against the Cowboys and 4-83-0 against the 49ers. Green Bay has a bevy of young pass catchers, and while they will spread the ball around, Doubs will be on the field as their X receiver with the trust of his QB.
Despite entering his third NFL season, Doubs is only 24 – the same age as Jayden Reed. Dontayvion Wicks (ADP 158.7) has gotten a lot of buzz in fantasy circles this offseason, and his long TD catch in the first preseason game will likely steam him up even higher. However, at this point, Wicks appears to be more of a rotational WR; I also think it’s more likely he eats into Watson’s snaps due to his prior hamstring issues and Doubs being a more complete route runner and WR than Watson.
I think people perceive Doubs as a boring selection, so there is value to be had there. His ADP certainly shouldn’t be as close as it is to Wicks’. This is an offense I want to invest in, and all of the WRs mentioned are viable choices, but I think Doubs comes at a very reasonable cost relative to his role and the opportunities he should see on the field.
2. Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR), ADP 149.3 – From weeks 6-18 last season, Chuba Hubbard was the RB24 averaging 19.2 touches and 77.7 total yards per game. Despite signing Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million contract, the incumbent Hubbard outplayed him in 2023 and took the lead back role. There has been a lot of change for the Panthers this offseason. They brought in Dave Canales as their head coach, who has built a reputation for revamping QBs like Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.
Canales also aims to establish the run and featured Rachaad White in TB last season in the passing game as well. Carolina also invested in the offensive line and traded for WR Diontae Johnson during the offseason, which should help improve the offense as a whole. These are all positive developments for Hubbard who was a low-end RB2 in the latter half of the 2023 season on an anemic Panthers offense (tied for last in the league with NE at 13.9 points per game).
The negative for Hubbard, however, is the Panthers traded up to draft Jonathan Brooks (ADP 95) in the second round as the first RB off the board. Brooks was viewed by most as the best RB prospect in this year’s draft, and he could have gone even higher if it wasn’t for tearing his ACL. Brooks opened training camp on the PUP list and isn’t likely to play the first few weeks of the NFL season.
This is where opportunity knocks for Hubbard. At the very least, he should be viable for the first few weeks of the season in this new offense. If Chuba plays well enough, he could retain some value and still see a decent amount of touches as I would expect the Panthers to ease Brooks in coming back from injury. Depending on team build, having a late-round RB you can start early in the season can be a valuable asset while playing the waiver wire and waiting for other players on your roster to emerge.
3. Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL), ADP 152 – Rico Dowdle has a massive opportunity this season in a Cowboys offense that just led the league in scoring and finished second in plays per game. His only real competition for touches at this point is Ezekiel Elliot (ADP 109.7). The biggest drawback with Zeke there is I could see Dallas favoring him in pass protection and goal-line situations, at least early on. Dowdle, however, is undoubtedly the more explosive player. In brief preseason action, he flashed some burst and decent pass protection, which should lead to him seeing the field more often and getting more high-value touches should he continue these trends. Dowdle is already being speculated as the favorite to lead the team in rushing.
Last season, Dowdle averaged 4.1 yards per carry and ranked 16th in yards after contact; Zeke averaged 3.5 yards per carry and ranked 43rd in yards after contact. Zeke’s efficiency metrics have been steadily declining for seasons now, and he doesn’t offer much in the run game outside of short-yardage situations. At an ADP of 152, as long as Dowdle can earn most of the work between the 20s, he can outperform his draft position even if Zeke gets the goal-line touches. Zeke also carries more injury risk this year at 29 years old.
Assuming Dallas doesn’t add any other backs, Dowdle has a clear path to a lucrative role in this Cowboys offense. Taking Dowdle late in drafts is betting on the younger more explosive runner to receive the lion’s share of the rushing work, which is usually a good bet to make.
4. Jaylen Wright (RB, MIA), ADP 152.3 – It’s hard not to like a 210 lb running back who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and had a relative athletic score of 9.82. It’s even harder to not like such a player when they play for Mike McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins. That player is none other than Jaylen Wright. The Dolphins traded a 2025 third-round pick to draft Wright in the 4th round of this year’s NFL draft. Wright averaged a whopping 7.4 yards per carry for Tennessee in his final collegiate season totaling 1013 yards on 137 attempts. The talent profile is there, and the situation in Miami is perfect for a speedster like Wright.
The only thing keeping his ADP so low is the lack of opportunity. However, I think Wright has multiple paths to opportunity. We saw last year with De’Von Achane (ADP 22.3) and Raheem Mostert (ADP 73.7) that McDaniel is willing to rotate RBs, and the fact that Miami traded a future third-round pick to draft Wright leads me to believe he will have some role in this backfield from the jump. There is also this quote from Mike McDaniel. I think he is likely the successor to the aging Mostert and could form a dynamic duo with Achane in the coming seasons.
McDaniel values speed and explosive players, and his scheme works to get his best players the ball and put them in positions to succeed. We saw last season with Achane that an explosive player doesn’t need a ton of volume to produce for our fantasy teams in this highly efficient offense. Wright has already flashed in the preseason with 10 carries for 55 yards and a TD in his first game.
Wright is also a rare case in that he has double contingency upside; an injury to Achane or Mostert would likely shift more volume his way, and neither player has been exceptionally durable at the NFL level. Wright is one of my favorite late-round fliers this year, and he is the cheapest way to get a piece of this explosive Miami backfield.
5. Ty Chandler (RB, MIN), ADP 154.7 – Like Jaylen Wright, Ty Chandler is an explosive, 200+ lb running back who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. Over the final four weeks of the 2023 season, Chandler averaged 15.3 touches and 81.8 total yards per game, and he scored 2 TDs. He was a more electric RB than the plodding Alexander Mattison, and the coaching staff has spoken highly of Chandler this offseason. Mattison is long gone now, but the Vikings did sign Aaron Jones (ADP 55.7) to a 1 year, $7 million deal this offseason. Jones is much more talented than Mattison, but Jones will also turn 30 this season and struggled with a nagging hamstring injury for much of the 2023 season.
Jones has also never really proven to be a bell cow and split work with other RBs during his time in Green Bay. It seems the Vikings view him similarly, and he is likely to work in tandem with Ty Chandler in a 1A, 1B type of situation. Between his age and the workload split, Jones is a player I’m avoiding at ADP this year; conversely, Ty Chandler is someone I’m targeting heavily and have ended up with him on the majority of my best ball rosters. I value him just as much in redraft as he should provide standalone value as well as nice contingency upside. It’s crazy to me he is going almost 100 picks later than his teammate Aaron Jones.
People seem to be down on this offense with Kirk Cousins signing with Atlanta, but I think Sam Darnold and/or JJ McCarthy can be plenty serviceable. Kevin O’Connell runs a great offensive scheme, the Vikings have a solid offensive line, and lesser QB play could mean more touches on the ground and through the air for the RBs in this offense. Once again, I like betting on the young back who has familiarity with the offense, and I will continue to target Ty Chandler in the later rounds of drafts.
6. Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO), ADP 155.7 – Rashid Shaheed is known for his big-play ability but has lacked consistency to this point in his career. He’s largely been a boom-bust option for fantasy owners with only a handful of weeks where he has finished as a WR1 or WR2. The talent and potential are there, though, so we are hoping to see more volume for Shaheed this season.
He finished last season with 46 catches for 719 yards and 5 TDs on 75 targets. Despite the inconsistency, Shaheed is one of the better deep ball receivers in the league. He saw over 1000 air yards on his targets last season, had a 14.6-yard aDOT (10th among qualifying WRs), and had the third most receptions of 40+ yards with 7. The only other receivers ahead of him in this category, Tyreek Hill and Amari Cooper, did so with far more targets.
| Player | 40+ yd rec | Targets |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 171 |
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 128 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7 | 75 |
With Michael Thomas gone and Juwan Johnson coming off of foot surgery, Shaheed should see an uptick in targets as the Saints’ WR2 this season. The Saints brought in Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator this offseason; he served as the 49ers passing game coordinator in 2023. This is a breath of fresh air for a Saints offense that has seemed stale in recent years. Kubiak should incorporate some of the concepts that make the 49ers one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
Last season, the 49ers led the league with 6.6 YAC per reception. It would make sense to get Shaheed some layup targets with YAC opportunities as he is a good player with the ball in his hands; he was selected to the All-Pro first team last season as a punt returner. Shaheed has also impressed in training camp thus far. With a better offensive coordinator and what should likely be an expanded role in the offense, look for Shaheed to break out this season.
Additionally, Shaheed receives a bump if your league rewards for return TDs and/or yardage, though he would likely go much earlier in leagues with those settings. TD odds are low on returns, but he’s one of the better return men in the NFL. With the new kickoff rules, Shaheed should see even more return opportunities as the Saints’ leading kick returner, and more chances at TDs is always a positive.
7. Mike Williams (WR, NYJ), ADP 159.3 – Mike Williams signed with the New York Jets on a 1 year/$15 million deal this offseason. He is 29 years old and coming off a torn ACL he sustained in week 3 of the 2023 NFL season. Normally, that’s not the type of player I would be in on drafting, but there are some reasons for hope along with a late-round ADP that make me willing to take a shot on Mike Williams this season. Firstly, the talent is there when Williams is healthy; he was the WR15 before his injury last year and finished as the overall WR10 in 2021 when he played 16 games. Despite his injury history, he has displayed some durability and toughness playing in at least 15 games every season from 2018-2021. Secondly, he sustained his ACL tear early last season, and it was not a multi-ligament tear which typically has a longer recovery.
Williams has been activated off the PUP list, and the plan appears to be for him to be ready to play by Week 1. I would expect the Jets to ease him back and ramp him up over the first few weeks of the regular season like we saw with Breece Hall last season. The opportunity is certainly there for Williams, as the team doesn’t have much WR talent outside of target hog Garrett Wilson; given the contract and his ability, Williams projects as the Jets clear WR2.
I’m also less hesitant drafting Williams coming off an ACL injury because of how he wins on the field; he is a big, physical WR who wins vertically and on contested balls. He isn’t as reliant on quick cuts or being shifty. The Jets also don’t have another WR with his size. Coupled with QB Aaron Rodgers, who is great at throwing the deep ball and back shoulder fades, Big Mike Williams could be a steal and produce a fair amount of TDs on a team with real Super Bowl aspirations.
8. Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN), ADP 165.3 – Though he went undrafted in 2023, Jaleel McLaughlin holds the NCAA record with 8,166 rushing yards. Despite being undersized for an RB, McLaughlin earned his spot on the Broncos last year and was electric whenever he touched the football. He ranked fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and 14th in explosive run rate. McLaughlin also ranked fourth in yards per target and first in targets per route run among RBs with at least 20 targets in 2023.
Javonte Williams (ADP 94.7) is looking healthier this season and projects as Denver’s lead back who will see the majority of the base rushing work. However, the main reason to target McLaughlin is for his pass-catching work. Veteran Samaje Perine is a likely cut candidate for the Broncos this season, which would lead to even more opportunities in the passing game for Jaleel McLaughlin. Perine did not have a good showing in the Broncos’ first preseason game, but McLaughlin did. McLaughlin had 7 carries for 30 yards, averaging more yards per carry than either Javonte Williams or Audric Estime, and he continued to show off his pass-catching chops out of the backfield on this 22-yard completion from Bo Nix.
The pass-catching RB role has always been valuable in Sean Payton offenses, and it should continue considering the Broncos led the NFL in RB target share with a whopping 32% for the 2023 season. If McLaughlin continues to impress, his stock is only going to rise. He’s an especially good late-round pick in PPR formats this season.
9. Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL), ADP 173.7 – Isaiah Likely has already proven he has massive contingent upside in this Ravens offense if Mark Andrews (ADP 47.7) misses time. During the 2022 season when Andrews missed most of week 8 and all of weeks 9 and 18, Likely posted weekly finishes of TE2, TE9, and TE3, respectively. Last season, in six games without Andrews, Likely totaled 5 TDs and posted four top 10 TE weeks, three of which he was a top five TE on the week. Likely also caught a TD in the 2023 AFC Divisional matchup with the Texans.
Likely has shown he has chemistry with QB Lamar Jackson and can earn targets, and if he didn’t have Andrews there, Likely would be a top-10 TE in fantasy drafts without a doubt. With positive reports out of training camp and a lack of depth at WR, I would not be surprised to see the Ravens utilize more two tight end sets and/or have Likely line up as a WR out wide or as a big slot.
Likely has shown he is simply too talented for the Ravens to keep him off the field. I do expect he will have an expanded role in the 2024 season, and he may be the only true TE handcuff in fantasy football. The prospects of increased involvement in the offense and the contingent upside make Isaiah Likely worth a late-round flier.
10. Demarcus Robinson (WR, LAR), ADP 214.5 – Demarcus Robinson was the WR31 in fantasy points per game over the final six weeks of the 2023 NFL season. He scored 4 TDs over that stretch and averaged 5.7 targets per game despite playing roughly a third of the snaps and receiving zero targets in week 18 when the Rams rested many starters. In their playoff loss, Robinson was also second on the team in receiving yards to rookie star Puka Nacua (ADP 13.3) on 6 targets. During that final stretch, Robinson’s performance was good enough to be a WR3 for fantasy managers, and he appears to have earned the role as the Rams’ WR3 heading into the 2024 season.
The WR3 role for the Rams is more valuable for fantasy purposes than pretty much any other offense in the league. This is because the Rams line up in 11 personnel (three WRs on the field) more than any other team in the NFL with a rate of 93.1% in 2023. So far, that trend has continued in the 2024 preseason. Though Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp (ADP 38) project to be the stars in the Rams passing attack, Robinson has shown he can still be productive and garner targets.
There is also the contingent upside if either Puka or Kupp were forced to miss time. Along with running 11 personnel at a high rate, I expect the Rams to have to air the ball out more with a tougher schedule after making the playoffs and the loss of Aaron Donald on defense. Robinson is as good a flier as any that can be had for practically free in fantasy drafts this year.
Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)