We are all looking for those players with opportunities to go nuclear, and the good news is that league-winning talent can be found at any point in the draft. Now how do we identify who it’s gonna be – and how exactly do we do that? Well, the truth is that… we can’t. It’s a game of luck. However, we can take steps to make our own luck, to inform ourselves by reading into why certain players could have more value than others, paying attention to what’s worked in the past, and noting recent trends in the ever-changing landscape of the NFL. I will start by addressing some more obvious breakout candidates to remind everyone of the reasons these players are ranked as high as they are. But don’t worry, if you’re in a deeper league and looking for some potential breakout targets to grab late in drafts, I’ve got you covered. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but I’ve identified 20 players in situations where they could outperform their ADP, possibly by significant margins.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
This one is a low-hanging fruit, so I’ll make it quick. I want to reinforce confidence in Wilson’s abilities and remind everyone why he deserves to be picked so high in drafts. Despite major QB issues, this man has two 1000+ yard seasons in the books, earning the fourth most targets in 2023 and seventh most in 2022 of all wide receivers. This was done without Aaron Rodgers, a QB with a track record of heavily targeting an alpha receiver (e.g. Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings). Historically, the highest percentage of wide receiver breakouts happen in their third year and between the ages of 24-27; Wilson checks both boxes. Most importantly, he passes the eye test with flying colors, and no other receiver on the team threatens to take his job – the perfect storm of talent and opportunity. With competent quarterback play, Garrett Wilson could certainly contend to be the #1 wide receiver in fantasy football this year.
Malik Nabers (NYG)
We are talking about the second highest-ranked fantasy rookie wide receiver of all time: Malik Nabers is unquestionably talented and has an incredible future in the league. His ability to make dynamic catches, the next-level awareness, and follow-through to complete plays in tight coverage will be worthy of highlights you will watch again, and again. In fact, before the NFL draft, there was debate whether he or Marvin Harrison Jr. would be the #1 receiver off the board. You may be asking, “If that’s the case, then why is MHJ ranked so much higher in drafts?” Well… because, unlike Nabers, MHJ doesn’t have a Daniel Jones problem. That, paired with PFF’s 30th-ranked Giants o-line, will hinder Nabers’ performance more than anything. If I had to guess, at some point this season we’re gonna see a stat line of 6 catches for 70 yards, with a touchdown, and we’ll be sitting there complaining about how it could’ve been so much better had Jones not overthrown, or underthrown, or made bad decisions, or – ok, ok, you get the idea. This is why Nabers is ranked where he is, as he will put up some incredible performances this year, but you may have to take the bad with the good. FantasyPros has him ranked as the consensus WR23 in the fourth round in 12-team leagues, a price at which I would gladly draft him.
Tank Dell (HOU)
The addition of Stefon Diggs paired with last year’s breakout of Nico Collins doesn’t deter me from Dell, who was on the verge of a massively productive year before his season was cut short due to injury. He’s back, fully healthy, and on a team with an immensely talented QB in CJ Stroud, who is on the precipice of his own breakout year. Between weeks 9-12, Dell caught 25 of his 43 targets, producing 369 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s a 17-game pace of 1568 yards and 21 touchdowns, and (excluding week 10) this is with Collins on the other side of the field as the WR1. That level of production is not sustainable so it would be fair to expect the touchdowns to be much lower, especially with Diggs being worked into the mix, but I wanted to highlight the significant playmaking ability that Dell brings to this already monstrous receiving core. More importantly, Tank Dell can be drafted nearly two rounds after Collins, and about one round after Diggs, giving him amazing value compared to his teammates.
George Pickens (PIT)
Regarding opportunity, he’s the only fantasy receiver of note on this team. Who is the #2 in Pittsburgh, is it Roman Wilson? Calvin Austin? Pat Freiermuth? I guess we’ll find out, but these guys won’t be on my squad at the end of a draft. Last year, despite the lack of productive quarterback play, Pickens accrued 1140 yards on 63 catches from 106 targets. The only player who produced more yards with fewer targets was Brandon Aiyuk (105), and he went HAMburgers on the field last year, plus it’s also worth noting that he had 13 more catches than Pickens. Of all WRs with over 100 targets in 2023, Pickens had the #1 highest yards per reception at 18.1, and the second longest catch of the year for 86 yards. He’s a highly physical and acrobatic playmaker who has proven the ability to make phenomenal catches, even when Kenny Pickett threw ducks at him. Russell Wilson didn’t look great in Denver, but he’s still an upgrade from last year, and someone whom I’d expect to look Pickens’ way – similar to previous year’s Courtland Sutton connection, which yielded 10 touchdowns. Oh, and Pickens is going into his third year which, as mentioned earlier in this article, is historically the most frequent breakout year for WRs. You can generally find Pickens at the end of the fifth round in 12-team leagues.
Zay Flowers (BAL)
For the first time in three years, a wide receiver has gotten more targets than Mark Andrews. Sure, some of this is attributed to injury, but there’s no question that the production was there for Zay Flowers as he delivered definitive alpha numbers compared to his teammates, earning nearly 23% of the entire team targets for 858 yards and 5 touchdowns. Not bad for a rookie. Going into his second year, he will need to improve on those numbers to outperform his ADP – fortunately, he’s on an elite offense with a QB in Lamar Jackson who, despite being the king of rushing QBs, can sustain great passing numbers when needed. Since Greg Roman departed before the 2023 season, there was a sharp increase in Jackson’s passing production as he achieved a career-high pass attempts (457) and passing yards (3678), which is also the first time he’s gone beyond the 3000 passing yard mark since his MVP season in 2019. Throwing the ball more almost got them to the Super Bowl, so they have no reason to shy away now. It’s also worth noting that there’s very little competition in the WR room: Rashod Bateman has been performing well below expectation, Odell Beckham Jr. left to join the Dolphins, and players such as Nelson Agholor or Russel Gage are both known for their careers as boom/bust options with two to three good games per year. Flowers is in line for an incredible opportunity to produce.
Rashee Rice (KC)
Elephant in the room… is this dude getting taken to court? The answer is: apparently not. The assault charges were dropped, but he could still receive punishment from the NFL in the form of a multi-game suspension. However, there’s a possibility that this won’t be resolved until the end of the 2024 season, meaning Rice very well could play all 17 games. His rookie campaign was solid, and despite not quite cracking the 1,000-yard mark, and while his teammates were dropping beautifully placed passes all over the field, Rice presented himself as the best receiver on the Chiefs who isn’t named Travis Kelce. Rice would be going much higher in drafts if it weren’t for the legal issues, but the risk of a multi-game suspension has been baked into his ADP. He’s currently ranked on FantasyPros as the WR35 at pick #78 in half-PPR leagues, putting him in the seventh round in 12-player drafts. If he plays the entire season, I don’t see how he won’t outperform that ADP. Worst case scenario, he’s suspended for several games, but he’s drafted late enough that he won’t sink your team. Lastly, he has the best quarterback in the world, Patrick Mahomes, throwing him the ball – which is generally a good thing. Ridiculous value, totally worth the risk.
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
Technically, he’s already broken out as he’s posted over 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons. I’ve always loved Terry, he’s so talented, but he’s been on the receiving end of a subpar offense for his whole career. I feel that we’ve all been tempered by the recent forgettable seasons coughed up by the likes of Sam Howell and Taylor Heinicke, but now they have a Heisman winner in Jayden Daniels throwing the ball, and despite being a mobile quarterback, he can still air it out when needed. Evidence of this goes beyond having the talented Malik Nabers as his #1 guy in college, as his connection with Brian Thomas Jr. further highlights how Daniels can place the ball exactly where it needs to be in short, middle, and deep passing situations. The Commanders also traded their former first round wide receiver, Jahan Dotson, giving McLaurin even less competition than before, with the next players in line being Byron Pringle and Luke McCaffrey. I like McCaffrey as a sleeper pick in deeper leagues, but I don’t see him usurping the WR1 role. I have a feeling that McLaurin is in for the best year of his career.
Rome Odunze (CHI)
Beyond the breakout of DJ Moore, the Bears went all-out to improve their passing attack by signing Keenan Allen in the offseason, using the first overall pick of the 2024 draft to snag Caleb Williams, and the ninth pick to pair him with one of the top WRs in this draft class: Rome Odunze. With 1,640 receiving yards, Odunze had the most yards among all college WRs in 2023, plus he hauled in 13 touchdowns through this span. At 6’3″ and 215 lbs, he uses his strength to fight for yards after catch, but also touts good route running and can fluidly change direction during plays. His speed and explosiveness are average, but his other attributes make up for this as he specializes in beating out his opponents to catch the ball, with a contested catch win percentage of 68.2% in 2023. This is slightly over 20% higher than Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. It’s risky to assume massive numbers from a rookie WR, especially one with a rookie QB, but the skillsets are there for success in this offense. His consensus ADP is 93 overall as the WR39 on FantasyPros, meaning on average he’s going in the eighth round in 12-team drafts. This is somewhat risky, but he has one of the higher upsides among WRs drafted in this area. It’s also worth noting that his ADP fluctuates across different platforms (e.g. in PPR he’s #34 on Sleeper, but #42 on ESPN), so you may be able to scoop him up for a bargain.
Jayden Reed (GB)
The Packers have an awesome receiving core: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks. They’re all talented, but in Jayden Reed’s first year in the NFL, he was the standout player in this receiving corps. He finished as the WR23 in half-PPR leagues in his rookie year, gathering the most receiving yards and catches in Green Bay, plus showing versatility beyond pass catching as 1 out of 4 WRs across all teams with at least two rushing touchdowns in 2023. He’s a Swiss Army knife, and the Packers have now had an offseason to design plays for him using his unique skillset. While his biggest concern in 2023 was that his snap count was a season average of only about 56%, he should get on the field more often in his second year as he’s become more engrained in their gameplan. Green Bay also gave their franchise quarterback Jordan Love a massive contract, demonstrating their continued tradition of committing to one QB in the long term, and they’ll want to nurture his connections with the WRs on this team. Their WR schedule is one of the easiest in 2024, while for RBs it’s arguably the worst – they’re gonna air it out a ton. I’d recommend drafting any Packers WRs at their respective ADPs, but I see the path for Reed to lead the pack again.
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)
Nearly 39% of all wide receiver targets in Jacksonville went to Calvin Ridley, who produced 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns. With his departure, a major receiving role has been opened in the Jaguars pass attack – enter Brian Thomas Jr., the #23 overall pick in the draft, a man who was drafted to fill this void. His time at LSU seems to be overshadowed by his former teammates Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers, who both deservedly gained massive pedigree for their on-field performances. Thomas was about 400 yards and 40 targets shy of matching Nabers’ stats from 2023, but managed to produce three more touchdowns, displaying his burst of speed and great awareness down the field. Jacksonville has consistency in the receiving game between Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, who are both safe targets for the team, though neither of these guys is known for their big play ability; their production is volume-based and they have decent floors. Brian Thomas Jr. will be the ceiling player in this offense, and he may be exactly what Trevor Lawrence needs to become a major producer in the long run.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
In his rookie year on the Seahawks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba accounted for nearly 26% of Seattle’s WR targets (93), with the lion’s share going to DK Metcalf (119) and Tyler Lockett (122). Outside of these three, the only significant players in the receiving game were RBs Kenneth Walker (37), Zach Charbonnet (40), and TE Noah Fant (43), meaning that the top-three WR options on this team have no competition for their roles on this offense. Going into his 2nd year, Smith-Njigba established a decent floor for his production, but with his 2023 average snap count of 64.8%, he will need to be on the field much more this year to become a difference-maker on this team. Metcalf’s role is set in stone as the #1, but Lockett is battling injury and coming off his first season outside of the top 20 since 2017. I’m not saying that Lockett has fallen off, but these are noteworthy factors to consider as Smith-Njigba may have to be more involved at the beginning of the season. Sure, the opportunity could be better, but let’s not forget the skills this #20 overall draft pick possesses: he holds the Big Ten all-time single-season receiving yard record at 1,606 yards, including a single-game bowl record of 347 yards and 3 touchdowns. We know he can ball out as he was ranked far above all other WRs in his draft class for a good reason, and if he can translate this to the NFL level, he’d very likely perform above his ADP.
Keon Coleman (BUF)
The Bills parted ways with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who accounted for over 44% of the total team targets in 2023. Yowza. Frankly, this benefits sophomore tight end Dalton Kincaid more than anyone, but that is a massive amount of vacated targets and Buffalo will need another playmaker to fill this void. This is where Keon Coleman comes in: a big-bodied player who, while not particularly fast, uses his physicality to create separation and move the ball down the field. The Bills love to run the ball and need strong blockers, someone who isn’t afraid to bully the defense to make a play. Yes, in fantasy football blocks don’t count for points, but this versatility will get Coleman on the field for more snaps, and the more time in the lineup means greater opportunities to get the ball. Josh Allen has thrown for over 4000 yards each of the last four years and has proven to be a highly accurate, top-tier quarterback who can turn a receiver into a fantastic option for fantasy. The only concern is that the Bills traded down twice in the draft, which could mean they may not be committed to drafting ‘their guy’; however, they passed on Ladd McConkey, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Adonai Mitchell. That said, the Bills are an elite team and I trust their process. They selected Coleman, and hopefully, he can seize this golden opportunity.
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Coming off a 10-touchdown season, Courtland Sutton has established himself as the #1 for this receiving core. What’s more, Bo Nix looks to be the real deal as he’s been on a rampage during the preseason, completing 23 for 30 (76.7%) of his passes and earning a 116.7 passer rating in the first two games. This is welcomed news as the Broncos have struggled with finding a difference-maker at the position for quite some time. Sutton accounted for over 34% of the wide receiver targets on this offense, while Jerry Jeudy received roughly 33% – now, with Jeudy gone, 87 assumed targets have become available. Rookie Troy Franklin will likely earn some of this workload, and he performed very well in his last year at Oregon, but we need to see more from him to be confident in his ability to perform at the NFL level. He didn’t catch a pass in week 1 of the preseason, and in the week 2 slaughter of the Packers, he wasn’t targeted a single time. This is a case where I trust the veteran to maintain his role at the top of the pecking order, and although I don’t expect a repeat of a 10-touchdown season, I do expect Sutton to see more valuable targets at a higher rate than in recent years.
Jameson Williams (DET)
Is it finally gonna happen? Is this the season where we see him unleashed? We’ve been at the edge of our seats waiting for the breakout to come since he was picked 12th overall in the 2022 draft, and so far we’ve been left wanting. Jameson Williams is not entirely to blame (at least in his 1st year), but the Lions have a high-powered offense and, for the first time in decades, are ready to make a run for the Superbowl. Amon Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta have their roles locked in, as they accounted for about 52% of the team’s receiving yards in 2023, but with the amount that Jared Goff slings the ball that leaves over 2,000 yards unaccounted for. This, paired with the departure of WR2 Josh Reynolds, the opportunity for another receiver presents itself, and this team would welcome a deep-threat speedster to the arsenal. Head coach Dan Campbell stated that Williams is the most improved player from practice this offseason and, when asked where he progressed most, Campbell is quoted as saying, “Everywhere”. This is exactly what you want to hear from a coach who turned a historically losing team into a potential Super Bowl contender. Jamo is ranked as the consensus ADP WR48 on FantasyPros and, on average, is going in round 9 in 12-team leagues.
Ja’Lynn Polk (NE)
My original plan was to write about Demario Douglas because he was the #1 on this team in 2023, but after looking at the stats I just couldn’t do it. He was the receiving yards leader on this team with 561 yards and ZERO touchdowns. Let’s face it, the Patriots stunk last year with a 4-13 win/loss record, marking this as their worst season since 1992. They need help, and this is where the #37 pick Ja’Lynn Polk comes into play with seemingly no other competition to crack the starting WR lineup. Though he was overshadowed by his star teammate Rome Odunze, Polk produced a respectable and nice 69 catches for 1,159 yards and 9 touchdowns in his final year at Washington. He has great body control and ball skills to make contested catches, and although his speed is average he’s great with tracking the ball to catch deep throws. As for his QB situation, the Mac Jones experiment is over as they spent the overall #3 pick on a new quarterback with Drake Maye in hopes of reviving their passing attack. No notable additions were made to their WR core outside of the draft, so Polk has a chance to make an immediate impact. If he can perform well early in the season he will quickly be locked in as a starter. Ranked as the consensus ADP #178 on FantasyPros, he will be available at the end of your draft in 12-team leagues.
Rashid Shaheed (NO)
PFF ranks the Saints’ o-line at 32nd. Dead last. I know this is not a great way to start a “breakout” player discussion, but it’s important to challenge one’s own point of view. The bottom line is that Rashid Shaheed can stretch down the field for huge gains, and his quarterback Derek Carr has historically used a deep threat as a crutch to evade otherwise dead plays and bust performances. I’m not here to argue that you will find the answer in Shaheed, but he could perform above expectations as a byproduct of Carr’s necessity to make massive throws, on the off chance that he can do something other than check down to Alvin Kamara time and time again. The primary receiver and talent on this team is Chris Olave, and the only reason he’s not at the top of this list as a breakout is because I believe his team is doing him dirty. Head coach Dennis Allen may have escaped “Bountygate”, but we will never forget what he’s doing to Olave’s career. I pray that they both get what they respectively deserve. But I digress. I mainly want to highlight that Shaheed will have at least a couple of massive touchdowns, and it could be more than we realize as Carr may need to get the ball away quicker than any other QB in the league.
Darnell Mooney (ATL)
Between Drake London and Kyle Pitts, the receiving game should already be locked in, right? Well, maybe, but we haven’t seen what head coach Raheem Morris or either of their two new quarterbacks look like on this team in the regular season. Darnell Mooney’s career has been a bumpy road with Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields as his primary QBs, plus a bit of Nick Foles and Andy Dalton peppered in here and there. He hasn’t been dealt a fair hand and it feels like we’ve only seen flashes in the pan with him – but this may be where it turns around. Kirk Cousins is the presumed starter and has a prolific passing history with seven seasons of over 4000 yards, and in recent years has sustained high-end QB production in Minnesota. The new Falcons system wants to distance themselves from last year’s scheme, and although Morris is known as a defensive-minded coach, he has experience as a WR coach and a passing game coordinator from 2016 to 2019. This new approach is an excellent structure for skilled pass catchers, so the only thing left to learn is if Mooney is talented enough to seize the opportunity. Also, he’s free to draft, and honestly, unless you’re in a deep league he probably won’t be drafted. That said, his situation is worth monitoring.
Xavier Legette (CAR)
Oof. I have to talk about the Panthers right now… Ok, look, I’m a cat person, and I’m rooting for them to be successful. However, despite picking Bryce Young with the #1 overall pick in 2023, they still haven’t gotten it together. Something needs to change. Adding Diontae Johnson to the passing attack is a great start, and Adam Thielen was a pleasant surprise last year, but imagine if they found someone with a higher measured top speed than Tyreek Hill – perhaps by precisely .19 mph. This is where 1st round draft pick Xavier Legette fits in as the shiny new weapon on an offense that desperately needs playmakers. He’s large, quick, has strong hands, and specializes in making contested catches, though he needs to improve his route running. In his five years attending South Carolina, he only had one prolific year which makes him a dart throw, but his consensus ADP on FantasyPros is WR65 and on average he’s being drafted in the middle of the 13th round in 12-team leagues, making him a low-risk/high-reward pick at the end of your draft. Just make sure not to leave your draft with two Panthers, if you end up going zero RB and need to grab Chuba Hubbard, look elsewhere for your last WR pick.
Jermaine Burton (CIN)
I love the talent, but not the opportunity. There’s no way he suddenly usurps Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, but I can’t deny it: he’s looked awesome in the preseason. It’s also important to note that Tyler Boyd is no longer in Cincinnati, a player who had over 25% of the total WR targets. This WR3 role needs to be filled, and Burton could be the one to do it. Joe Burrow was battling an injury in 2023, which significantly hindered his production, but in the two years where he played full seasons, he accrued at least 4500 passing yards in both, enabling Chase and Higgins to have 1000+ yard seasons in those years. Barring injury, I wouldn’t guarantee Burton being a difference-maker yet, but if he earns the WR3 role I’d expect similar numbers to Boyd who, in 2021 and 2022 respectively, gained 828 and 762 yards, plus five touchdowns in each of these full seasons with Burrow. There’s also still uncertainty surrounding Chase’s contract extension, and if he decides to hold out in the regular season, or if Higgins ends up being traded as he’d requested in the off-season, then Burton would become a steal at the very end of the draft. Mind you, this is merely speculation; all I’m saying is, at least keep an eye on him. If you’re in a deeper league, he’s a worthy stash.
Quentin Johnston (LAC)
Grit your teeth, close your eyes, and pick him up no earlier than the 15th round. Yes, he’s free to draft, which is a part of why he’s on this list. You’re probably gonna drop him after week 1, but hear me out: what if he just happens to turn things around in his second year? The Chargers moved on from their top-two receivers and decided to resurrect the Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman offense. Yes, we all know that these dudes love to run the ball. A lot. I’m not expecting this passing attack to have the same success as recent years, but every team has to throw the ball at some point. Justin Herbert is super talented and will find ways to diversify from the 1-2 punch at RB. Plus, with the major upgrades to the offensive line, he will have more time to make reads down the field. It’s worth noting that Harbaugh has been singing praises of Johnston, saying he’s been developing, getting stronger, and needs another chance to prove himself on the field. In terms of upside, it’s pretty sweet considering there’s zero risk in drafting him with your last pick.