2025 Early Season D/ST Targets
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter/X, Reddit)
We all know (or should know by now) that you should wait until the last round or two of your draft to grab a D/ST unit. You’ll likely end up hitting the waiver wire throughout the season to constantly adjust that roster spot, so it’s the least valuable position to target in the draft… but it’s not meaningless. So, which defenses should we look for in that final round to start our season off strong?
What I’ve found to be the case in both drafting my initial D/ST and mid-season streaming is that ‘matchup hunting’ only goes so far. Sure, you could look at whoever is playing New Orleans or Cleveland Week 1, but it’s necessary to also consider the quality of the unit you’re putting in your lineup. Should you really be targeting the Bengals only because the matchup might be in their favor?
Keep in mind that until we see action in Week 1, nothing we believe about any offense or defense is certain. Always reconsider your options as you reevaluate each team’s performance along the way. When it comes to which D/ST to draft, I view the Week 1 matchup as the most important, followed in part by Weeks 2 through 4. If what we presume about the quality of certain offenses is true, then you might not have to hit the waiver wire right away in Week 2. Let’s get into it.
D/ST #1: Denver Broncos
Matchups: TEN, IND, LAC, CIN
This unit might be the best defense in the league. An already strong front adds Dre Greenlaw to the second level with Alex Singleton, and the reigning DPOY Pat Surtain is joined by Talanoa Hufanga and their first-round pick, Jahdae Barron. They play Tennessee with a rookie QB in Week 1, followed by the Colts. Indianapolis’s offensive line is in a precarious situation, and we shouldn’t be afraid of either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson given the strength of this secondary. The outlook in Weeks 3 & 4 doesn’t appear to be necessarily favorable, but this unit might be akin to last year’s Lions during the first half of the season – a team so good you could consider starting them regardless of the matchup. But, if you’re less convinced by the first two weeks, then you can always hit the waiver wire going into Week 3.
D/ST #2: Los Angeles Rams
Matchups: HOU, TEN, PHI, IND
Sacks and turnovers are the name of the game for D/ST scoring, so I love looking for defenses with an elite pass rush. Similar to the Broncos, the Rams also face the Titans and Colts in two of their first four matchups, but start Week 1 against Houston. While the pass game of Houston is presumed to be its strong suit, the Texans’ offensive line appears to be a less-than-average unit. With the pass rush of Jared Verse and Byron Young, the Rams D could rack up a solid number of sacks and hinder Houston’s pass game. Week 3 is a tough matchup against Philly, but we’ll gladly take the first two weeks and reassess from there.
D/ST #3: New England Patriots
Matchups: LV, MIA, PIT, CAR
You might be thinking, “Wait, wasn’t the quality of the defense important, and we weren’t just matchup-hunting?”. Yes, that’s right. Forget what you knew about the Pats’ defense last season and look forward (remember how Philly went from worst to best). Sweeping coaching changes and some meaningful additions (DT Milton Williams, LB Robert Spillane, and CB Carlton Davis) provide the ingredients for a potential lockdown unit. Also, keep in mind that this secondary still has Christian Gonzalez and Jabrill Peppers. New England gets a Raiders team that will likely still be working out the kinks in Week 1, two weak O-Line matchups with Miami and Pittsburgh in Weeks 2 and 3, and then Carolina in Week 4. Miami might be seen as the offense with the most firepower, but the strength of this Pats D falls right in line to cause some headaches for them. (I can’t believe I’m saying this, but…) Carolina might be the offense I fear most matchup-wise, but that’s far enough out in the schedule to disregard for now.
D/ST #4: Buffalo Bills
Matchups: BAL, NYJ, MIA, NO
We all know the Bills to be a strong defense with an elite front 4 that now features Joey Bosa. Week 1 against Baltimore is without a doubt the toughest matchup, but at least they play at home. We’ve seen how some offenses can be slow out of the gates, so I wouldn’t totally fade them surviving the week. It should be easier sledding from that point forward with the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. Personally, I would be willing to roll the dice on Week 1 to have this D/ST in my pocket for a good stretch rather than gamble with whichever D/STs might be available on waivers in Week 2.
D/ST #5: Arizona Cardinals
Matchups: NO, CAR, SF, SEA
This defense added EDGE Josh Sweat from the Eagles and DT Calais Campbell from Miami. They also spent their first two picks in the draft on very highly graded prospects, IDL Walter Nolen and CB Will Johnson. The Cards play the Saints in Week 1 …I’ll be polite and leave it at that. After Week 1, we’ll see how the matchup with Carolina fares for Week 2, but then the rubber hits the road with the Niners and Seahawks in Weeks 3 & 4. Arizona is a fine option if all you’re looking for is a one-to-two-week plug-in option. There’s also a chance that the Niners’ injury bug continues to spread its plague, so keeping ARI for Week 3 might not totally be out of the Cards (sorry).
Honorable Mentions / Fallback Options:
Pittsburgh Steelers: NYJ, SEA, NE, MIN
San Francisco 49ers: SEA, NO, ARI, JAX
Seattle Seahawks: SF, PIT, NO, ARI
Photo by Scott Winters | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)