Must Drafts. My Guys. Ride-or-Dies.
Whatever you call them, the intention remains the same. Leave every draft with as many of them on your team as possible.
For my first series here at QB List, I’ll be breaking down my “Flag Plants” for the 2025 Fantasy Football season. There’s no singular set of criteria. No formula or made up “J.A.Y.” metric. Just a couple of players at each position that I plan on drafting a whole lot of this summer. Some will be studs I’m willing to “buy the risk” at their ADP, while others are bounce-back candidates set to shed their previous bust status. Some will be guys I simply think are being drafted too low.
First up for you? Quarterbacks.
I’ve got a couple of former first overall picks, a former rookie of the year, and one guy that so many people will regret counting out after two down-ish seasons.
Don’t be one of them.
Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
(FantasyPros ADP: QB19)
I’m not going to argue that Trevor Lawrence has done anything to remotely sniff the “generational talent” moniker bestowed upon him in college. I also won’t rehash all the dumpster fire decisions made by the Jacksonville Jaguars since drafting T-Law.
A new era begins.
Welcome to #DUUUVAL, @CoachUrbanMeyer
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 14, 2021
Enough about the past. Let’s get to the future.
Trevor Lawrence enters 2025 with a new head coach for the fourth time in five seasons. Thankfully, Liam Coen isn’t just another retread. The new Jacksonville coach hails from the much-beloved, uber-productive Sean McVay coaching tree. In just one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, Coen rejuvenated both the Bucs offense and Baker Mayfield‘s career. Tampa’s offense jumped from 18th in points per game (21.2) to fourth (29) from 2023 to 2024, and Mayfield threw for a career-high 41 touchdowns.
There was a lot to like about how Lawrence played pre-shoulder injury last year. He had the third-highest accuracy rate (83.25) and the second-highest average depth of target (9.8) among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. And in Weeks 1-8 (injury issues started Week 9), Lawrence had the 2nd most pass plays of 20+ yards, as well as the 2nd best completion percentage on passes of 20+ yards (48.1). Despite his struggles, Lawrence is coming off back-to-back seasons of over 4,000 passing yards. An often overlooked part of his game, Lawrence has averaged 321 rushing yards and about four rushing touchdowns, adding nearly four extra points per game.
Jacksonville also addressed the offensive line and is one of the most improved units on paper. They signed both OT Patrick Mekari and C Robert Hainsey and drafted OT Wyatt Milum in the third round. Milum excels in both run and pass blocking and didn’t allow a single sack the past three seasons at West Virginia.
Speaking of the draft, don’t forget the Jaguars made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Jacksonville has already made it known that they view him as a wide receiver first. Paired with Pro Bowl sophomore wideout Brian Thomas Jr., the duo already appears to headline the best arsenal of weapons TLaw has had in his professional career. Currently being drafted as the 19th or so quarterback off the board, he’s being drafted way below his floor. Is a QB1 overall season in his future? Likely not. But a top-10 fantasy finish is certainly attainable. Maybe as early as this year.
CJ Stroud – Houston Texans
(FantasyPros ADP: QB18)
The 2023 rookie of the year took a significant step back in his sophomore season, but it’s unsurprising when you dig into the details. The Houston offensive line was horrendous. CJ Stroud faced pressure on 34.8% of his drop-backs, the highest rate in the entire league. He was sacked 52 times, the second most in the league, behind the guy next up on this list. When given time, Stroud was just fine, with a completion percentage of 70.1% and yards per attempt of 7.3. When pressured, his completion percentage dipped to 47.6% and yards per attempt dropped a full yard to 6.3.
Thankfully, Houston revamped its line this offseason, signing a handful of veterans in OG Laken Tomlinson, OT Cam Robinson, and OT Trent Brown, trading for OG Ed Ingram, and drafting OT Aireontae Ersery in the 2nd round. The offensive line is shaping up to be significantly improved, but to what degree will decide how close Stroud can get to his rookie year performance.
Stroud has rarely had his full assortment of weapons at his disposal. Through Stroud’s first 36 games, he’s had Nico Collins and Tank Dell in just 18 of them.
Stroud with and without Collins and Dell on the field (per FTNData)
With both, Stroud’s per-game numbers go up drastically—Over five more completions, nearly another touchdown, and 52 more passing yards per game.
While Dell is out for the year after suffering a devastating injury, the Texans did add help this offseason. Not just talent, but depth too. They signed Christian Kirk and drafted Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at 34th and 79th overall, respectively.
Stroud is already singing the praises of new OC Nick Caley, who’s worked under Josh McDaniels and Sean McVay (noticing a theme?). Stroud said Caley allows him to take more control of the offense at the line of scrimmage, which hasn’t been the case in the past. Caley won’t commit to a specific style of offensive system, opting instead for “game-by-game adjustments.” Although McVay was calling the plays, Caley was the passing game coordinator for the Rams last season, who ranked 10th in passing yards per game. Like Lawrence, Stroud’s being drafted way below his floor around the QB 18-20 mark. The difference is that a QB1 overall season is still in the realm of possibility for Stroud.
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
(FantasyPros ADP: QB11)
Caleb Williams was much better than he was given credit for last season. Despite getting sacked more than any other signal caller last year—67 times— and facing pressure on 29.4% of his dropbacks, merely 2% of Williams’ throws were considered turnover-worthy. While his passing numbers left much to be desired, he delivered on his rushing potential. Williams had the 7th most rushing yards among quarterbacks (489) and averaged 6.0 yards per carry.
Caleb Williams making more big plays on the run 👀
📺: #JAXvsCHI on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/MYhm2HCu3L— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
But my excitement for Williams’ potential jump has more to do with his new head coach, former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. It’s confirmed he’ll be calling plays in Chicago, which is thrilling to hear for the Bears’ fantasy potential. Detroit’s offense finished in the top five in both points scored and yards in all three seasons with Johnson at the helm.
The Bears also made significant moves to address the offensive line, trading for OG Joe Thuney, signing OG Jonah Jackson (who joins Johnson from Detroit), and adding free agent center Drew Dalman. They also snagged Senior Bowl standout OT Ozzy Trapilo in the second round of the NFL draft.
Despite already having wide receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, the Bears added two dynamic weapons with the first two picks: tight end Coleston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden. All things considered, Williams is my dark horse pick to finish as the QB1 overall this season.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
(FantasyPros ADP: QB6)
How did we get here? How did we get to a place where people are fading Patrick Mahomes? Patrick Mahomes. The only active player who even remotely has a shot at dethroning Tom Brady as the GOAT?
Has his fantasy production been down over the past two seasons? Sure. Did he throw for the fewest passing yards in his career in 2024? Yup. But the fewest passing yards for Mahomes’ career (3.928) was still good for the sixth most in the NFL. He finished third in attempts (581) and completions (392), and had a top 10 completion percentage (67.5%). His 26 touchdowns in 16 games were the lowest total since 2019. The next year? Patty threw 38 tuddys and 4,740 passing yards. Not bad.
Am I predicting Mahomes will throw for 40 touchdowns and 5k passing yards? Absolutely not. But his status as an elite fantasy quarterback is getting put out to pasture way too early. I’ll gladly take the discount, especially considering many forget he’ll chip in 300-400 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs addressed the offensive line by taking OT Josh Simmons in the first round, who will battle with free agent signing Jaylon Moore for the starting left tackle position. Whoever loses likely shifts to RT (a good thing for KC). The foundation of a good line is still there, with center Creed Humphrey and Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith still around (albeit on the franchise tag for now).
With Rashee Rice‘s legal troubles not a fantasy concern until next season (the trial is set for January 2026), Mahomes has a fearsome group of weapons. At receiver, he’ll have Rice, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, rookie Jalen Royals, and an aging but still-productive Travis Kelce. The shallow backfield he dealt with last season is no more: Isiah Pacheco is healthy, they brought in Elijah Mitchell, and re-signed old friend Kareem Hunt.
After getting absolutely embarrassed in the Super Bowl, I’m not going to count against a motivated Patrick Mahomes. The talk all offseason has been figuring out how to incorporate explosive plays back into the Chiefs offense. If they do—watch out!
Being able to wait a few rounds and still draft an elite quarterback like Mahomes will afford you a shot to draft the likes of James Cook or Kenneth Walker instead of David Montgomery or Aaron Jones Sr. That’s the type of edge that wins fantasy championships.
(Data sourced from FTN Fantasy. Qualifying QBs include a minimum of 10 starts.)
Be sure to check out my Flag Plants for other positions:
Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)