Must Drafts. My Guys. Ride-or-Dies.
Whatever you call them, the intention remains the same. Leave every draft with as many of them on your team as possible.
For my first series here at QB List, I’ll be breaking down my “Flag Plants” for the 2025 Fantasy Football season. There’s no singular set of criteria. No formula or made up “J.A.Y.” metric. Just a couple of players at each position that I plan on drafting a whole lot of this summer. Some will be studs I’m willing to “buy the risk” at their ADP, while others are bounce-back candidates set to shed their previous bust status. Some will be guys I simply think are being drafted too low.
This time around, we head to wide receivers. There is TONS of mid-round value to be had this season at receiver. You just have to look in the right places.
DJ Moore – Chicago Bears
(FantasyPros ADP: WR21, 31 Overall)
Remember how excited I was over here talking about Ben Johnson calling plays for the Bears? Ever hear of Amon-Ra St Brown? The guy named after a sun god? He has three straight top 10 finishes, including back-to-back seasons as the WR3 overall. Guess who’s set to play that role in Chicago? DJ Moore.
AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps
That’s how I felt, too.
Moore commanded a 22.1% target share in the Bears’ offense last season, the 10th highest among all receivers. He was a weapon for Caleb Williams downfield as well, with three touchdowns over 20 yards, tied for the third most in the NFL.
Chicago did draft stud tight end Colston Loveland in the first round and wide receiver Luther Burden III in the second, so there will be plenty of competition for targets. We don’t know what this offense is going to look like for sure, but there have been talks of Moore playing in the slot…
(don’t do it, Jay, don’t do it)
…MORE.
(chuckles in Dad joke)
I do expect Moore and Rome Odunze to line up mostly outside, with Burden lining up in the slot most often. So, for the sake of argument, Moore sticks to the outside. Let’s take a gander at ARSB’s stats based on where he lined up pre-snap in 2024.
Outside Pre-Snap Alignment
Slot Pre-Snap Alignment
More targets, more receptions, more yards, higher yards per target and reception, and the same amount of touchdowns when ARSB lined up outside versus in the slot. Even if the majority of his snaps come on the outside, Moore’s going to produce.
Far too many fantasy managers get blinded by the idea of having a team’s WR1. They’ll pass up good receivers on good offenses when there’s an undefined hierarchy among pass catchers, opting for the top option on a worse offense. DJ Moore is one of those guys this year. Will he be the undisputed WWE World Heavyweight Champion WR1 on the Bears? Unlikely. Chicago’s receivers will all play a significant role. But I do think Moore leads the way, and he’s not being drafted like it. As my dear friend Heath Cummings used to say…”Gimmie Moore”.
Michael Pittman Jr – Indianapolis Colts
(FantasyPros ADP: WR50, 92Overall)
It was recently revealed that Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr played virtually all of last season with a fractured back. He felt pain in his back during training camp, but wasn’t diagnosed until after a Week 3 win over Da Bears. But it was obvious watching Pittman play last year that something was off. He didn’t look like the same guy who averaged over 98 catches, 1,053 yards, and ~5 touchdowns, finishing as WR13, WR20, and WR17 over the previous three seasons. I get why people are down on him after last year’s WR41 finish. But he wasn’t as bad as you think.
Pittman led the Colts in targets for the third straight year (albeit in two more games than Josh Downs) and was the first read on 73% of his targets. He was the first read most often, sitting at 14.3%, which is good news considering that both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones targeted their first read over 50% of dropbacks last season. Both the Giants and Colts ranked inside the top 10 for first-read pass percentage, with Indy’s 53.5% being the third-highest rate in the league.
I’m not saying Pittman is returning to borderline WR1 status. He’s capable, but I’m not planting that flag until he has a much more stable quarterback situation. But Pittman is being drafted in the 90s. Not the greatest decade in music of all time, but as is the 90th or later player off the board. That’s WR50, after last season’s faceplant finish of WR41. The hate has gone way too far. He’s literally being drafted under his floor.
Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens
(FantasyPros ADP: WR30, 54 Overall)
“He’s a volume-catch guy. You can use him in novelty screens, get him the ball down the field, so I expect him to take another leap in terms of his consistency.”
-Ravens Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken
“I’m running straight this year, y’all! I’m running straight. No more cutting”
– Ravens Wide Receiver Zay Flowers
If those two quotes don’t get you excited for Flowers’ potential to bloom (I’m so sorry) into a fringe fantasy WR1, check your pulse. Flowers is coming off his first 1,000+ yard season and was top 10 in the following categories:
- Yards Per Route Run (2.5)
- Yards After The Catch (463)
- Yards After The Catch Per Reception (6.3)
- Target Share (23.2%)
- 20+ Yard Targets (23)
- 20+ Yard Catches (8)
- Explosive Catch Rate* (25.7%)
*The percentage of a player’s targets that turned into an explosive play
This one’s pretty simple. Flowers is being drafted way too low, behind the likes of George Pickens, DK Metcalf, and Xavier Worthy. At WR30, Flowers is a near-zero risk/high reward pick who can easily finish ranked in the teens.
Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins
(FantasyPros ADP: WR29, 52 Overall)
Look. I get it. Jaylen Waddle was a colossal bust for the second year in a row. He’s coming off his first pro season under 1,000 yards, and his touchdown total has been cut in half for the third season in a row. He finished outside the top 40 in that position. But I’m waddling back one more time, and you should too.
Despite the down year, Waddle led all Dolphins receivers in yards per target (9.2), yards per reception (13.2), and had a higher yards after the catch per reception (4.5 to 3.6). His average depth of target was virtually the same from 2023 to 2024 (10.1 to 10).
So what gives? Two things. First, Jonnu Smith established a valuable role in the offense, commanding 111 targets for 88 receptions, 884 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns. Smith stole seven oh-so-valuable end zone targets; as a result, Waddle’s were cut in half. But thankfully, he’s gone. Miami traded Smith to the Steelers. His replacement?
This guy.
The second thing? Tua Tagovailoa‘s lengthy absence due to that terrifying concussion he suffered on Thursday Night Football.
Waddle’s numbers were up across the board with Tua under center, averaging 4.6 more points per game in full PPR leagues. A full season (hopefully) of Tagovailoa under center is a positive for Waddle’s production.
Jaylen Waddle’s 2024 Splits with/without Tua Tagovailoa (per FTN Splits Tool)
With Jonnu gone, Tua back, and Tyreek Hill battling a wrist injury, maybe/maybe not wanting to be traded, and turning 31 this offseason, the ingredients are there for Waddle to get his groove back.
(Data sourced from FTN Fantasy. Qualifying WRs include a minimum of 60 targets unless otherwise stated.)
Be sure to check out my Flag Plants for other positions:
(Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)