2025 Fantasy Football Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

Robust RB. Zero RB. Hero RB. Doesn't Matter. Draft these backs!

Jay Felicio
Draft Prep 13 Hours Ago

Before fantasy football became mainstream (shoutout Matthew Berry), sources of advice, analysis, and “taeks” were mainly limited to magazines that had outdated information the second they hit shelves. If you kept up with training camp news and preseason risers, you could legitimately find fantasy gold in players your league mates had never heard of. But with the wealth of information available on the interwebz, Sleepers in a traditional sense no longer exist.

Post-Hype Sleepers are a different story. The definition varies based on who you ask. But for me, a post-hype sleeper is a player who was once highly touted and fell out of favor for whatever reason, who now presents an opportunity to be drafted at a value.

Just as in the “Flag Plants Series” (Which, if you haven’t checked out, do so here, here, here, and here), I’ll go through each position and give you my Post-Hype Sleepers for 2025.

Let’s take a stroll down running back boulevard with a couple of names who should be targeted by everyone, not just Zero-RB truthers.

 

Trey Benson – Arizona Cardinals

(The “guy we were probably just a year too early on” Sleeper)

 

James Conner tends to be underrated from a fantasy perspective, but I have a cluster of concerns for him heading into 2025. After topping the 200-carry threshold just twice in his first six seasons, Conner managed to do so in back-to-back years over 2023-2024, also attaining his first two 1,000-yard seasons.  I try to avoid the label of “injury prone,” but Conner’s never played in a full season, missing two or more games in each of his eight years in the NFL. He also turned 30 in May. That’s not old in “real life” (says the 38-year-old), but it’s ancient in RB years. When you’re looking to cook up a productive running back, start with an age-30 back, throw in a dollop of career-high workload, and sprinkle in a lengthy injury history, you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

Truthfully, his current ADP of RB20 is a solid value, considering he’s not finished lower than RB19 over the past four seasons. But… I like his heir apparent’s ADP even more. Second-year back Trey Benson has an ADP around RB46 and has—stop me if you’ve heard this before— league-winning potential if he manages to get the bulk of backfield carries in Arizona.

Benson matched Conner’s 4.6 yards per carry over the full season and got better as the year progressed. From Weeks 10-17, Benson bested Conner’s yards per carry, 5.7 to 4.8. Over that same period, Benson had a higher avoided tackle rate, explosive (20+ yard) run rate, and yards after contact.

James Conner & Trey Benson’s efficiency from Weeks 10-17 (per FTN StatsHub)

Granted, that was in about 1/4 of the touches, but it proves the point I’m trying to make: Benson is more than capable of producing at the highest level. I believe there’s a good chance Connor sees a drop in production and/or misses multiple games due to injury. Either could lead to a backfield takeover by Benson.

 

D’Andre Swift – Chicago Bears

(The “Ben Johnson Effect” Sleeper)

 

With all the changes the Chicago Bears made this offseason, it was a surprise they didn’t add any backfield competition for D’Andre Swift. His first year as a Bear was a bummer, sporting a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, the first in his career under four. While you can’t explain it all away due to poor offensive line play, Swift barely had room to work with. His 1.5 yards before contact was tied for fourth-lowest in the league. Thankfully, one of those changes I prefaced this blurb with includes a significantly improved o-line. I expect a swift return closer to his previous career average of 4.6 yards per carry.

Although Swift disappointed from a rushing perspective, he performed through the air. Among backs with a minimum of 35 targets, Swift ranked top 10 in yards per target (7.4), yards per reception (9.2), and yards after the catch per reception (9.6). He caught 42 passes on 52 targets for 386 yards. Those totals have a reasonable chance to go up with new Bears head coach Ben Johnson running the offense. Detroit running backs saw over 100 targets under Johnson in each of the last three seasons, including 70 for Swift as a Lion in 2022. With an ADP of RB24, the risk is already baked in. If the Bears’ offense takes the leap expected under Ben Johnson, a top 10 season is within reach.

 

Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars

(The “He almost killed a guy with a stiff-arm” Sleeper)

 

I want to personally thank the Jacksonville Jaguars for drafting running back Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Had they not, Tank Bigsby’s ADP would be much higher than RB50. Bigsby is somehow the last Jaguars back off the board, with Tuten’s ADP sitting at RB42 and Travis Etienne Jr going as RB33.

I don’t get it.

Bigsby outperformed ETN in numerous categories last season: rushing yards (558 to 466), rushing attempts (168 to 150), yards per carry (4.6 to 3.7), touchdowns (7 to 2), yards per reception (7.7 to 6.5), goal line carries (11 to 5), yards after contact (3.4 to 2.5), avoided tackle rate (28% to 16%), and multiple others.

2024 Running Back Efficiency. (min 150 carries, per FTN Data)

Among qualifying running backs, Bigbsy ranked inside the top 10 in avoided tackle rate, explosive run rate, juke rate, and yards after contact. The main way ETN bested Bigsby last season was usage in the passing game, with 39 catches on 52 targets for 254 yards compared to seven catches on 12 targets for 54 yards. That’s where the rookie comes in.

As much as I like Bigsby, his upside is capped by his lack of involvement in the passing game. With Etienne in the final year of his contract and the subject of trade rumors for nearly two seasons now, Tuten was drafted as the future replacement for Etienne. All three are likely involved to a certain extent, but I see Tuten and Etienne eating into each other’s value. If Tuten’s college fumbling problems follow him to the pros (he fumbled on his first carry in OTAs), he could easily be the odd man out. There is absolutely ZERO risk drafting Bigsby at his current ADP. Don’t mistake his lack of top 10 upside for lack of value.

(Data sourced from FTN Fantasy. Qualifying RBs include a minimum of 150 carries unless otherwise stated.)

 

Be sure to check out my Post-Hype Sleepers for other positions:

Quarterback

Wide Receiver (coming 7/16)

Tight End (coming 7/17)

 

Photo by Ken Murray | Adapted by Parker McDonald