We’re just a month away from the start of the 2026 NFL season, and fantasy football draft season is officially here. It’s important to avoid players who could disappoint at their current cost. Here are five players who could end up being fantasy busts in 2026 based on their current ADP.
Tetairoa McMillan – WR, Panthers
Current ADP: 37
First up is Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who could end up being a bust at his current draft price. McMillan had an excellent rookie season with over 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, but fantasy managers may be drafting him at close to his ceiling.
Despite the impressive season totals, McMillan scored over 15 fantasy points in only three games in half-PPR formats. That doesn’t exactly scream elite weekly upside, yet he’s currently being selected around the early fourth-round turn in a standard 12-team league. That’s a risky investment for a player who hasn’t consistently shown league-winning production.
He also still has Bryce Young at quarterback, and I’m not convinced Young is the type of passer who can elevate McMillan into the elite fantasy tier. Young set career highs with roughly 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns last season, but I don’t see him making the jump to 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. That limits McMillan’s overall ceiling.
On top of that, the Panthers have added more competition for targets. Jalen Coker returns for a full season after earning a contract extension and made a noticeable impact late last year, helping reduce McMillan’s target share from 28% to 22% during the second half of the season. I’m still a believer in McMillan, but paying an early fourth-round price in redraft leagues feels too risky. At that cost, there’s a strong chance he fails to return value and ends up being one of the biggest fantasy busts of 2026.
Instead, draft Emeka Egbuka or DeVonta Smith ahead of McMillan. A healthy Egbuka outperformed McMillan over the first nine games and should remain the Buccaneers’ top option. Smith has a smaller sample size but has produced elite numbers whenever A.J. Brown has been off the field. With Brown now in New England, Smith will get a chance to operate as Philadelphia’s WR1.
Harold Fannin Jr. – TE, Browns
Current ADP: 63
Another second-year player making this list is Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin enjoyed an outstanding rookie campaign, finishing as the TE6 while leading Cleveland in targets. With David Njoku no longer on the roster, many fantasy managers expect Fannin to take another step forward. I’m not so sure.
The Browns could return to a run-heavy offense under Todd Monken, similar to what he orchestrated in Baltimore. The Ravens ranked third in rushing attempts in 2025, and with Quinshon Judkins looking like a true franchise running back, Cleveland could lean on the ground game rather than asking the passing attack to carry the offense.
Cleveland also upgraded its receiving corps. After relying on an undrafted Isaiah Bond and the often-injured Cedric Tillman alongside Jerry Jeudy last season, the Browns invested heavily by adding two rookie wide receivers in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Those additions create significantly more competition for targets and could limit Fannin Jr.’s opportunities in 2026. It will also be worth monitoring the quarterback situation. If Deshaun Watson wins the starting job, his history suggests he hasn’t consistently leaned on tight ends in the passing game, which could further cap Fannin’s upside.
The biggest concern, however, is the price. Spending an early sixth-round pick on a tight end in such a deep position feels unnecessary. I’d rather use that selection on another running back or wide receiver and wait until later in the draft to address tight end. Fannin should still be a productive fantasy option, but with more competition for targets, repeating his TE6 finish is far from guaranteed.
Instead, draft Rome Odunze or Jayden Daniels over the mid-range tight end options. Odunze was averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game when healthy last season and has a chance to become the Bears’ top option. Between quarterback and tight end, I’d rather take the upside Daniels could offer at the quarterback position than the risk Fannin carries. Tight end is a fairly deep position with plenty of value to be had later in the draft.
Chris Olave – WR, Saints
Current ADP: 29
Next is Saints wide receiver Chris Olave, who is currently being drafted in the third round. Olave feels like another player being drafted near his absolute ceiling, and there are several warning signs that fantasy managers aren’t fully considering. Injuries have already become part of his story, making him a riskier investment than some receivers in the same range.
While the Saints offense should improve under Kellen Moore, it’s fair to wonder what the identity of the offense will be. The team signed Travis Etienne Jr. to a significant contract, suggesting they’ll emphasize the running game. They also added Jordyn Tyson, who many viewed as one of the most talented receivers in the 2026 draft class. Tyson has injury concerns of his own, but he has the talent to command meaningful targets immediately.
The Saints also still have Juwan Johnson, while Alvin Kamara could see an increased receiving role if his rushing workload is reduced. Historically, when Kamara has been under 200 carries, he’s approached the 100-target mark.
Olave posted an outstanding 29.7% target share last season, but that number could easily decline with more legitimate competition. He’s a solid WR2 for fantasy teams, but drafting him in the third round means you’re likely relying on him as your WR1. That’s not a bet I’d want to make in 2026.
Instead, draft Javonte Williams or Rashee Rice. Williams offers a consistent high-end RB2 for fantasy football this season, and you can find other receivers later in your draft. If you need a receiver at this point, give me Rice, who has scored double-digit fantasy points in 20 of his 28 career games. The consistency is better with Rice, as long as he can stay on the field.
Christian McCaffrey – RB, 49ers
Current ADP: 4
This is the biggest name on the list.
Christian McCaffrey is once again expected to be a top-five pick after finishing as the RB1 in fantasy football last season. The problem isn’t his talent; it’s the historical trends surrounding aging running backs. McCaffrey turns 30 this season, and very few running backs continue producing top-three fantasy seasons once they reach that age. Throughout his career, whenever McCaffrey has handled more than 250 carries, the following season has either ended with injury or a noticeable decline in production.
Last season, he logged 311 carries and over 400 total touches. We saw something similar happen with Saquon Barkley after an extremely heavy workload, as his production declined the following year. I’m not saying McCaffrey can’t finish as an elite fantasy running back again. He absolutely can. But taking him fourth overall means you’re expecting another dominant season while ignoring the significant workload and age-related risks. At that price, I’d rather invest elsewhere.
Instead, draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Puka Nacua over McCaffrey. Not much needs to be said here. I’d rather take the safer options in JSN or Nacua, who should both see a huge target volume again this season. McCaffrey carries too much risk to justify taking him at the 1.04.
Breece Hall – RB, Jets
Current ADP: 30
Rounding out the list is Jets running back Breece Hall.
Hall is coming off a career year with over 1,000 rushing yards and is currently being drafted in the middle of the third round. There’s no questioning his talent, but he still hasn’t become the elite fantasy back many expected when he entered the league. Part of that has been due to the Jets’ inconsistent offense, but there are still reasons for concern entering 2026. The passing game has more weapons than ever, which could reduce Hall’s involvement as a receiver in negative game scripts.
Hall should still surpass 50 targets with Geno Smith under center, but Garrett Wilson remains the clear No. 1 receiver, and the Jets have multiple additional pass catchers capable of demanding targets. We also can’t forget about Braelon Allen, who could continue stealing valuable goal-line carries. Hall has never been a high-touchdown producer, so losing short-yardage opportunities further limits his ceiling.
Hall should still be a quality RB2, but at his current ADP I’d rather take a chance on running backs with greater touchdown upside and league-winning potential.
Instead, draft Travis Etienne Jr. or Javonte Williams over Hall. As I previously mentioned with Williams, he’s the safer option to produce a high-end RB2 season in a strong Cowboys offense. I also trust Kellen Moore to get the most out of Etienne Jr., especially after the Saints paid him a significant amount of money. We’ve seen in recent years that running backs who switch teams and receive big contracts often go on to produce solid fantasy seasons.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads | @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)