The time has come, ladies and gentlemen. My guys. My baes. My Boos. Whatever you want to call them. These are the guys I want on as many teams as possible. I’m not saying I’ll overpay, but I’m saying I won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on taking any of them when the price is remotely close to right. Before we head to my 2026 Flag Plants, let’s look back at who I chose last season.
Trevor Lawrence: Jacksonville Jaguars
(2025 ADP: QB19)
This is the prediction I’d stick on the fridge. I said a top-10 finish was “certainly attainable.” He finished QB4 overall in total points and QB6 in points per game at 20.6, on 4,007 passing yards and 82 carries for 359 yards and nine rushing scores. Drafting a QB19 and rostering a QB4 is the whole point of this exercise.
I still missed the bullseye on this one. Much of my case was built on Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr.: BTJ was one of the season’s biggest busts with a 48-707-2 line, and Hunter got hurt before he could do much of anything. The real story was Liam Coen. The true jackpot was those nine rushing touchdowns. At least I called his legs “often overlooked.” That line is my saving grace.
Verdict: Hit
Caleb Williams: Chicago Bears
(2025 ADP: QB11)
Calling him a “dark horse QB1 overall” was maybe a year too early, but it was still a very productive season. Williams racked up 3,942 passing yards, a new franchise record, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 388 rushing yards, and three rushing scores. That’s 18.7 points per game, a bump from 15. I put my chips on Ben Johnson, and he cashed them in with 12 wins and a playoff victory.
It wasn’t all pretty, however. I bet on an accuracy jump and got a volume instead. Williams completed just 58.1% of his passes, one of only three quarterbacks with eight or more starts under 60%. The outcome was right, but the recipe was off; the meal was still delicious. What if both happen in 2026?
Verdict: Hit
Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs
(2025 ADP: QB6)
This one is messy. Mahomes averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game, fourth-best at his position, so the discount worked just as promised. What didn’t work was the Week 15 ACL tear right when you needed him most.
Even with a season ending early, the value was there; my reasoning missed the mark. I expected a return to fireworks through the air. Instead, he managed just 3,587 yards, ranking 19th out of 42 qualified passers, with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The real value came from his legs: a career-high 422 rushing yards, the league’s second-best QB rushing season per PFF. He averaged 24.5 points per game through Week 8, then dropped to 15.0 over his last six, so the decline began before the injury.
I won’t blame the knee injury, but I also can’t take credit for a season that ended before the playoffs.
Verdict: Push
CJ Stroud: Houston Texans
(2025 ADP: QB18)
This miss is all on me. The logic was sound. Houston’s line actually exceeded expectations. Stroud let me down: 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions in 14 games, and just 13.8 points per game, outside the top 20 for the second year running.
A Week 9 concussion cost him three games, and I could hide behind that. I won’t. Points per game strips the absences out, and he’s still outside the top 20. I fixed the line in my analysis, Houston fixed it in real life, and I still wrote that a QB1 overall season was possible. Two years of talking myself into this guy. There won’t be a third.
Verdict: Miss
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
No, you read that right. Caleb Williams is a Flag Plant for the second year in a row.
Yes, he was inconsistent. Yes, he completed under 60% of his passes. Yes, He broke out anyway, and he did it while barely turning the ball over. A 1.2% interception rate or lower in each of his first two seasons is elite company for a guy nobody wants to call accurate (nor should they). Top-10 quarterback in fantasy points per game, warts and all.
The accuracy story is muddier than the season-long number suggests. He was around 61% through Weeks 1-6, dropped to 55.5% in the middle of the year, then bounced back at the end. Break the season into quarters, and the muck starts to clear.
*Quarters consist of the Bears games in order, not specific Weeks of the NFL Season. Chicago’s 5th game was played in Week 6 due to a Week 5 bye.
Q1 had his best completion percentage at 62.3%, but Q4 was some of the best football of his career: 244 yards per game and 10 touchdowns on a 58% completion rate, more touchdowns than Q2 and Q3 combined. The mediocre completion percentage undersells how well Williams was playing as the season closed. Q3 was U-G-L-Y. Four games, Weeks 10-13, 51.8% completion rate. But there are two games in which he actually has an alibi.
Quarter 3 (Games 9-12)
- Week 10 vs. Giants: 33°F in Chicago, light snow, 10 mph wind, 25°F wind chill.
- Week 11 at Vikings: indoors. No excuse.
- Week 12 vs. Steelers: clean weather, clean pocket. This is the honest sample, and Pittsburgh showed real misses.
- Week 13 at Eagles: roughly 40°F with steady 15 mph winds and gusts of 25-30, worst of it early.
So the slump is bookended by two games where nobody was throwing a pretty ball. That doesn’t erase the accuracy concern, because Week 12 exists. But it does mean that four-game stretch isn’t the measuring stick people are using it as.
The line will look a little different, but it should still be good. Chicago returns three and a half starters, with Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson all starting every game last year. Left tackle was a revolving door. Braxton Jones for four games, then Theo Benedet, then rookie Ozzy Trapilo, who held the job until tearing his patellar tendon in January. That looked like a 2026-ending injury, but he came off the PUP list on August 16. Nobody knows when he’s ready to start, so Braxton Jones is back there for now. Dalman’s surprise retirement brought in veteran Garrett Bradbury and second-round rookie Logan Jones to compete at center.
Now the part that has me planting the flag again. Year one under Ben Johnson was spent learning the pre-snap job. That’s the hard part, and it’s done. The work moves to after the snap now: timing, progressions, footwork, ball placement. Johnson himself says the accuracy is “trending upward,” and Williams has impressed in August. It’s been reported he’s looked sharp in practice, highlighted by back-to-back sessions with three red-zone touchdowns on August 19 and 20.
He’s basically being drafted at his floor. I’m taking Williams often in 2026, and I think overall QB1 is on the table.
Daniel Jones – Indianapolis Colts
It’s not the years, it’s the mileage. From waiver fodder to Post-Hype Sleeper to Flag Plant, yes, it is that Daniel Jones. Indy was 8-2 heading into their Week 11 bye, then the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Then Jones started stacking up injuries. They dropped Week 12 to the Chiefs, Week 13 to the Texans, and tore the Achilles on December 7 in Week 14 (another loss, to Jacksonville). Jones still finished the year at a 68% completion percentage, with 3,101 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, and eight picks. He also chipped in five rushing scores in 13 games. When Jones tore his Achilles in Week 14, he was already playing through a fractured left fibula, which tells you something about the guy. It looked like his Disney-esque comeback story would not have a fairy-tale ending.
The Colts paid him anyway. Two years, $88 million, the largest two-year deal in NFL history. And the recovery has been the story of their camp. He hasn’t missed a snap with the first team, hasn’t taken a day off, and there have been reportedly zero restrictions. Under center, throwing on the run, scrambling, barring a setback, he’s a full go for Week 1.
The receiving room isn’t necessarily thinner, but it is a tad older. Michael Pittman Jr. was traded to Pittsburgh, replaced by the signing of the ancient one, Keenan Allen. Alec Pierce is the new No. 1, and he was the most dangerous deep threat in football last year, leading the league in average depth of target (19.4), yards per target (11.94), and yards per reception (21.34). He’s also still recovering from offseason ankle surgery with no timeline. Josh Downs and Tyler Warren round it out.
For some reason, he’s currently being drafted as the QB23. Behind Malik Willis. Behind C.J. Stroud. Virtually tied with Sam Darnold and Bryce Young. He’s free money in a 1QB league, a perfect safe play to pair with an upside guy like Cam Ward. In Superflex, he’s a rock-solid QB2 who comes at a borderline backup price.
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
I’m gonna keep this one short and sweet. Sometimes, it’s just a gut feeling. That’s the case this year for Lamar Jackson. A “down year” for LJax was 23 total touchdowns in 13 games with a hamstring that never fully healed. If that’s the floor, I’ll take it at a bargain every time.
Baltimore blew it up around him. John Harbaugh was fired after 18 seasons, replaced by Jesse Minter, who brought in 29-year-old Declan Doyle to run the offense. Doyle spent 2025 as Chicago’s coordinator, watched Ben Johnson unlock Caleb Williams, and now gets a quarterback who can do things Caleb can’t. Doyle is expected to install a fast-paced, motion-heavy offense focused on explosive plays.
Yeah, that’ll do.
Jackson has reportedly been sharp all camp in the new system. The thing about betting on Lamar is that the downside is a top-eight quarterback and the upside is another MVP. I don’t see a version of this where you’re mad about the pick. He remains an elite fantasy quarterback and would be an excellent value at any meaningful draft discount.
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
Sixteen touchdowns in eight games. That’s the version of Herbert that exists in the sacred timeline where he isn’t running for his life. Last year, he was stuck in the part of the multiverse where he was constantly running for his life. He took 54 sacks, second-most in the league, and faced a league-high 263 pressures. He played the final month with a fractured left hand. Calling the back half of that season a decline misses what actually happened: a quarterback getting hit until something broke.
Now Mike McDaniel is calling the plays. The guy who made Tua Tagovailoa look like a superstar.
it took 1 possession for this meme to takeover
lmao 💀💀 pic.twitter.com/ZgAfCj5JvQ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 15, 2026
Yeah, that guy.
McDaniel rebuilt Herbert’s stance: left foot forward now, catch the snap and fire, so the five-yard out becomes twelve. Herbert spent his summer break in Oregon throwing to his brother Patrick to make it feel automatic before camp, and McDaniel noticed. “He’s been everything that I’d hoped and more.” McDaniel has praised Herbert’s rapid progress, particularly his improved anticipation and willingness to release the ball before receivers break open.
The line should finally cooperate too, albeit with some hiccups that hopefully don’t carry into the season. Both Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are back and healthy. But their big offseason OL signing, Tyler Biadasz, who was set to man the middle, was recently placed on season-ending IR after suffering an ACL injury during joint practices with the 49ers. Rookie Jake Slaughter played center in college but was drafted in hopes of taking over at left guard. That plan is on ice for now, with Slaughter named the starting center after Biadasz’s injury. Kayode Awosika is the favorite to take over at LG and has had a good camp. Awosika started multiple games in Detroit over four seasons and managed to tread water in Ben Johnson‘s complete system, which requires linemen to play both zone and gap run schemes. It’s not the best-case scenario, but it could be much, much worse.
He’s 28. He’s got the best play-caller of his career, a healthy line, and a coordinator openly saying he wants “Year 2 results in Year 1.” I’m buying every share.
Photo by Scott Winters, Leandro Bernardes | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)