ADP Risers and Fallers

Ever changing ADPs bring out the bargains and busts.

Jay Felicio
Draft Prep 17 Hours Ago

Shorts and t-shirts are already getting swapped out for hoodies. The Pumpkin Spice Lattes have begun to germinate. And NFL players are inflating their ADPs with a single preseason play.

Remember this guy?

(It would wind up the longest run of Ameer Abdullah‘s NFL career.)

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we’re smack dab in the middle of fantasy football draft season, and it couldn’t be more glorious. With the NFL season a mere two weeks away and actual fantasy drafts taking place, the ADPs, they are a-changin’.

Using ADP reports from the National Fantasy Championship (note: all drafts, non-superflex), I compared ADPs from July 1st-31st to August 1st-20th to find a few draft-day movers and shakers. Here are five guys (sorry, no burgers or fries) with significant movement in their ADP since July.

 

Now let’s sort out the Ameer Abdullahs from the Puka Nacuas.

🚀 Riser: Keon Coleman, WR, BUF
(July ADP:119, August ADP: 107)

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote up Keon Coleman as one of my wide receiver post-hype sleepers, but if he continues to shine in the final weeks of the preseason, he won’t be a sleeper much longer. Coleman has been flooded with praise from his coaches, teammates, the media, and nearly everybody, impressing not just with his play on the field but also with the growth in his maturity, intentionality, and work ethic.

Although Coleman lacks the ceiling of a top-five fantasy receiver, the ingredients are there for a mouthwatering season: A team without a true alpha. An elite quarterback who excels at throwing the ball deep. A team that throws deep at one of the highest rates in the league. You’ll never mistake his production for Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, but if he becomes Josh Allen‘s go-to guy, 60-70% of it is achievable.

Verdict: Coleman is still well worth his draft cost, currently residing just outside the top 100 players off the board. Until he climbs inside the top 75, I’ll have zero issue clicking on his name in the draft room.

 

📉 Faller: Cam Skattebo, RB, NYG

(July ADP:111, August ADP: 127)

Before suffering a training camp hamstring injury, Cam Skattebo was showing flashes of why many expected him to start the season as both the goal line and passing-down back. Skattebo missed multiple weeks of training camp but returned to practice on August 19th. He’s yet to play in a preseason game at the time of writing, but has a chance to suit up in the Giants’ final preseason game against the New England Patriots. The timetable may have been pushed back, but not much has changed. Tyrone Tracy is still a McDouble (4.37 yards per carry), and Skattebo’s injury isn’t expected to linger into the season. The backfield takeover has just been delayed.

Verdict: Skat won’t start the season with low-end RB2/FLEX viability like I had hoped. But his long-term value remains unchanged and still has plenty of upside. The discount only makes him more appealing.

 

🚀 Riser: Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ

(July ADP:163, August ADP: 154 )

The consistent talk out of Jets camp has been to expect a committee approach at running back, and it makes complete sense. Not just because head Coach Aaron Glenn is joining the Jets with a Lions-esque offense in mind, but they have multiple talented running backs. As reported by our very own Brett Ford in his “What We Saw” article reviewing the Jets vs Giants preseason game, Allen may have already carved out a significant role, virtually splitting time on the field with the first team offense.

Allen saw an identical seven carries to Breece Hall, but out-rushed him 4.9 to 3.7 yards per carry. Hall hasn’t looked bad by any means, but he has done nothing to separate himself from Allen (or even Isaiah Davis, tbh).

Verdict: Allen has jumped roughly a round since July, but I expect that to continue to climb. He’s arguably the best handcuff for fantasy if you can still even consider him one. Allen is a startable FLEX from Week 1, with legitimate league-winning potential if he finds his way to a bell-cow workload. With that being said, beware how high his ADP drift takes him. If Allen winds up inside the top 100, you’ll find yourself dangerously close to buying all the risk drafting him there.

 

📉 Faller: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF

(July ADP:131, August ADP: 149)

Expected to start the season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, excitement for Brandon Aiyuk’s fantasy prospects began to rise when it was reported that the Niners are targeting a Week 6 return for the wideout. But if you listen to the full quote, things are left far more uncertain.

When discussing multiple players returning from ACL injury, head coach Kyle Shanahan said, “…I see them around Week 6. That could mean Week 10 or it could mean Week 5…”, a far cry from what’s being presumed as a near-certain Week 6 on social media. And while Aiyuk will return to a promising situation with the least amount of target competition he’s had in his entire career, this isn’t an entirely healthy player coming off suspension rejoining his team. It’ll take time for Aiyuk to get back to pre-injury form, and that’s no guarantee. He’s already expected to miss about half of the fantasy regular season. Are you willing to start him right out of the gate in crucial matchups while making your playoff push?

Verdict: He’s missing a minimum of half the season, and will be a roster clogger up to that point (the impact of which depends on your league’s IR settings). If this were Aiyuk coming back from suspension and stepping on the field fully healthy, that would be a different story. It’s in the realm of possibility that the losses on defense, combined with injuries and losses on the offense, lead to a terrible start for the 49ers. What if by the time Aiyuk is ready to return, the season is virtually over? How much would they push him to return? Even at the discount, I’m avoiding Aiyuk in redraft leagues.

 

🚀 Riser: Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB

(July ADP:94, August ADP: 72)

The situation surrounding already uber-hyped rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka continues to improve (for fantasy purposes, at least). With an aging Mike Evans and Chris Godwin battling to return from a devastating ankle injury, Egbuka’s largest obstacle to significant playing time would be second-year wideout Jalen McMillan. Unfortunately, McMillan suffered a severe neck strain in the Buccaneers’ second preseason game against the Steelers. Tampa Bay has already announced McMillian will be placed on IR, forcing him to miss at least four games, with his realistic return rumored to be more along the lines of Week 10 (the Bucs have a bye in Week 9). Chris Godwin will reportedly be activated from the PUP list soon, but only so he’s able to intensify his pre-game preparations. He’s still expected to be out until at least October. Egbuka hasn’t just been hyped up by the fantasy community either. Here’s what Baker Mayfield had to say:

 

Verdict: Even with the multi-round jump, I’m still smashing draft on Egbuka in the 70s. Although I’m a big fan, he’s in danger of getting too costly if his ADP continues to balloon. If/when he climbs inside the top 50 or so, I’ll be priced out of drafting him.

 

 

Photo by Mark Alberti | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)