You can’t win your league in the draft, but you can certainly lose it. A successful draft gives your team the foundation to sustain season-long success in fantasy football. One of the best ways to dominate your draft is to identify and target players you believe will outperform their average draft position or ADP. Average draft position is a helpful draft prep tool for recognizing how the overall market values a player. When you can identify players who will outperform ADP, you can maximize your draft success and put yourself on the path to a fantasy championship.
Let’s look at players I believe are in a great position to outperform their current ADP, looking specifically at ESPN’s data. This is the type of information your leaguemates will use when you are drafting with them on ESPN’s platform, so this article is your way to gain an edge on them. All ADP referenced in this article comes from ESPN’s PPR Live Draft Trends report found here, taken on August 14th.
Early Round Values (Rounds 1-5)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI), ADP 25.8: It is rare in fantasy football to see a rookie going this high in your fantasy drafts, but I’m here to argue that Harrison is the exception to the norm. He enters the league as an elite college prospect with the draft capital to match. After the Cardinals selected Harrison with the 4th pick in the 2024 NFL draft, he figures to instantly slot in as Kyler Murray’s top target in the offense. When you look at MHJ’s collegiate production, 1200 yards & 14 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons, it’s easy to see his elite production profile. Pair that with Murray’s proven ability to support elite WR production, as evidenced by Deandre Hopkins’s WR4 finish with Murray as his QB in 2020, and that should provide the volume and efficiency needed to outperform his current ADP of 25.8. Drafters on other platforms agree, with his ADP on Sleeper, NFL, and Underdog rising over 10 spots higher to 15th overall.
De’Von Achane (RB, MIA), ADP 34.8: Scoring more points than your opponent is the most basic explanation of how to win in fantasy football. De’Von Achane ranked 5th among all running backs in points per game in 2023, showcasing that he’s an elite player at the position. Achane’s incredible 7.8 yards per carry and 8.5% touchdown rate led to 17.3 PPR points a game, and his four weekly finishes over 23 points and a bonkers single-week high of 51.3 showed a week-to-week upside that is difficult to find anywhere in your draft. While his efficiency will likely regress, Achane’s explosive ability is obvious and his ceiling is among the highest at his position.
Drake London (WR, ATL), ADP 36.6: As a former 8th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, it is safe to say London’s production thus far in his career has been disappointing. However, 2024 brings promise to this top prospect’s young career, as for the first time he will have a competent QB throwing him the ball. After the Falcons traded for Kirk Cousins many raised London on their draft boards. The team also received a steep upgrade at important coaching positions and is expected to play a much more fantasy-friendly scheme. London’s advanced metrics have always looked better than his box score stats, and a QB upgrade paired with a playcalling change should lead to an end-of-year finish that outperforms the current ADP.
Nico Collins (WR, HOU), ADP 37.7: There is a lot to be positive about in Nico Collins’s situation. As CJ Stroud’s top target in 2023, Nico Collins produced 1297 yards & 8 touchdowns on only 80 receptions and finished as the WR 12 in PPR. He was even better on a per-game basis, where he finished as the 7th-best wide receiver with a per-game scoring average of 17.4. The most amazing part is he did this while CJ Stroud only threw 23 touchdowns on the year, marking a roughly league-average 4.5% TD rate. The addition of Stefon Diggs is a reason for concern, but Collins’s usage in the offense should lead to the highest route participation on the team. If Stroud’s production increases, Collins’s ability and opportunity will put him in a prime position to finish among the top at his position.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA), ADP 54.8: Waddle is one of the most explosive players in the NFL, and explosiveness provides players with a terrific opportunity to score high weekly fantasy point totals. We are only two years removed from Waddle finishing as the WR8 in PPR behind a 1356 yard & 8 touchdown campaign. 2023 was a down year marred by injury, but per PlayerProfiler, Waddle maintained a strong 27.5% target share in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. The volume Waddle will receive in the Dolphins’ high-scoring offense can directly translate to him being a great value at ADP.
Middle Round Values (Rounds 6-10)
David Montgomery (RB, DET), ADP 76.3: For the second straight season, the Detroit Lions enter the 2024 season with an RB duo primed to be valuable fantasy assets. Montgomery is the second RB drafted from the duo, coming off a season in which he had over 1000 yards on the ground and 13 total touchdowns. Detroit boasts one of the most run-heavy offenses and there will be plenty of opportunities to go around. Monty also received 53 red zone touches last season, a figure that should remain a candidate for the highest in the league with the Lion’s potent scoring offense. Lots of scoring opportunities, and contingent upside if Jahmyr Gibbs were to be injured, make Monty a great value at ADP.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI), ADP 89.6: It’s no longer a secret that QB rushing is the key to finishing as a top option at the position. Kyler Murray is one of the most productive running QBs to ever play in the NFL. The 5 point per game floor he adds with his legs is a foundation for a massive weekly upside. Murray has openly spoken about his body not being 100% in 2023 and claims he now has the comfortability he did back in 2021 where he put up over 22 points per game as a top QB in fantasy. His renewed confidence in his legs and the addition of top playmaker Harrison Jr provide the ingredients needed to outperform his ADP.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC), ADP 97.1: Rashee Rice presents an interesting case. On one hand, he is a second-year player in prime position to be a top target in a Patrick Mahomes offense, on the other, some off-the-field legal issues have fantasy managers factoring a multi-game suspension into his cost and dropping him down their draft boards. However, we have recent murmuring around the fact that the suspension may not happen in 2024. If these rumors end up being true, Rice would smash his ADP and skyrocket up draft boards. If you can stomach the risk, he’s a no-brainer at ADP.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT), ADP 96.3, 96.5: I thought about picking either Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren for this article, but considering the nearly identical ADP, I’ll simply say you can take whomever you value higher. Both Steelers RBs have a massive workload coming in 2024 with new OC Arthur Smith being notorious for having one of the lowest pass rates in the NFL. Both Harris and Warren also come with a tremendous amount of contingent upside where if the other were to go down and miss time, the increased workload would provide a weekly upside far above their current ADP.
Brock Bowers (TE, LV), ADP 113.8: When the Raiders drafted Bowers with the 13th pick in the NFL draft many were confused considering the high draft capital they had used on Michael Mayer the year prior. In the Raiders’ first pre-season game they showed reason for positivity, playing both Mayer and Bowers on the field their entire first drive. Bowers lined up out wide, in line, and even in the backfield! Utilizing Bowers in so many ways gives promise to his prospects as a fantasy asset. If you miss out on one of the top 8 TEs this year, Bowers provides great upside later in your drafts.
Late Round Values (After Round 10)
Jameson Williams (WR, DET), ADP 131.4: Fantasy managers have been waiting patiently for Jameson Williams to live up to his draft capital. 2024 may be the year they get what they want. In 2023, Williams only ran a route on 53.3 percent of routes, per PlayerProfiler. This looks to be increasing this season with OC Ben Johnson coming out on multiple occasions with praise for Williams taking a big leap this season. The increase in volume and his jump-off-the-screen athleticism should make him a great value in the high-scoring Lions’ offense.
Curtis Samuel (WR, BUF), ADP 148: Josh Allen and the Bills find themselves lacking established pass-catching threats at the WR position. Between rookie Keon Coleman, third-year player Khalil Shakir, and Samuel, determining who will stand out can be difficult for fantasy managers. Samuel does have an advantage the others do not, a familiarity with OC Joe Brady, who he last played for in Carolina in 2020. During Samuel’s final season with Brady, he totaled 97 targets and 41 rush attempts. Brady sees value in putting the ball in Samuel’s hand and goes out of his way to do so. Should that continue this year in Buffalo, Samuel can emerge as the top option in a very ambiguous WR room.
Demario Douglas (WR, NE), ADP 164.2: The Patriots’ offense in 2023 was bad, historically bad in many ways. A lone bright spot was 6th-round rookie Demario “Pop” Douglas. Over the final 8 weeks of the season, Douglas maintained over 7 targets per game on a target share above 21%. This opportunity should continue in 2024 due to a lack of competition on the Patriots, whose other WR options are unproven. Douglas has a real opportunity to be the WR1 on his team and has the explosiveness to provide strong efficiency with those targets.
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN), ADP 166.2: Receiving production provides a strong floor to top RBs, especially in PPR formats, Broncos HC Sean Payton’s offenses are always among the highest in the league when it comes to RB targets. Ambiguous backfields are terrific places to find ADP values, matched with the high target share to the position McLaughlin is in position to emerge out of Denver’s backfield and become a value to managers who drafted him at ADP.
Josh Palmer (WR, LAC), ADP 169.1: For the first time since drafting Justin Herbert, the Chargers offense is being faded by fantasy managers. New HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman look to instill an old-school run-first offense that won’t be as fantasy-friendly as the high-octane offense Kellen Moore ran in 2023. The loss of pass catchers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams also looks to lower the team’s ability to score points. The ability to move the ball on the ground is limited to the Chargers’ ability to stay out in front in games, if they drop behind they will be forced to throw and that is where Josh Palmer could shine. He has minimal competition in the offense and Herbert is still a top QB talent, and Palmer’s familiarity with him and the offense could lead to him pacing the team in targets.
Sam Darnold (QB, MIN), ADP 169.9: The entire off-season fantasy managers have expected Sam Darnold to start the year and be quickly replaced by first-round rookie JJ McCarthy. With McCarthy now missing the full 2024 season, expect Darnold in the starting role for longer than anticipated. If he can start the full season in Kevin O’Connell’s offense with weapons like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, his ability to outperform ADP is obvious.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
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