Average Draft Position (ADP) is a useful metric that shows how the market values a player and helps identify how long you can wait to draft a player you like. One of the best ways to gain an edge over your friends and league mates is to identify areas of opportunity to reach for a player whose ADP isn’t matching what you expect their true value to be.
I have compiled a list of players throughout the draft that you can aim to draft ahead of their respective ADP. Let your league mates draft overvalued public favorites and gain the advantage by following this list designed specifically for Sleeper leagues. All ADPs referenced in this article come straight from Sleeper’s draft pool live ADP taken on August 24th.
Early Round Values (Rounds 1-5)
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC), ADP 27.4: The WR room in Kansas City can be difficult to navigate, but getting a piece of an offense run by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is always a good move. Pacheco’s inclusion in the passing game took a big step up from his rookie season and with Jerick McKinnon no longer factoring into the equation and the RB depth in Kansas City being suspect, I would expect him to take another step in the right direction. With Kansas City bolstering their speed and attempting to stretch the field, Pacheco should see plenty of lighter boxes leading to more consistent big chunk plays. Currently the 12th RB off the board, I have Pacheco as the RB4 right behind Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall. He shouldn’t be making it to the 3rd round.
Mike Evans (WR, TB), ADP 29.9: Death, taxes, and Mike Evans recording 1000+ receiving yards. Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink things. When you’re making some of your early-round picks, you want to make sure you get a return on investment, and there has not been a much more consistent one than Mike Evans since he stepped into the league. I understand the apprehension–he turns 31 in a couple of days and Father Time is undefeated, but there are always exceptions to the rules. At age 30, Evans played all 17 games and had one of the best seasons of his career, finishing as the WR5 in Half-PPR leagues. Also, all the receivers between Evans and the Big Five WRs have some form of question marks (QB play, sophomore slump, rookie year, QB/coach relationship, etc.). Add in another season of chemistry between him and Baker Mayfield and you’re once again looking at top-10 value for a guy consistently slipping into the 3rd round. Not to mention Tampa Bay’s mostly stagnant offseason on the offensive side of the ball means Evans should be in line for a similar target share, if not a bigger one.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA), ADP 45.1: I have found that a lot of value in RBs is just finding players who are firmly entrenched in a starting RB role as opposed to the more common 1A/1B rotations, and that is what we have here with Kenneth Walker III. Zach Charbonnet seems to be entrenched in a more situational role around short-distance downs and goal-line plays, but it will be KW III getting the lion’s share of touches. He managed 900 yards behind a worse offensive line and with limited carries. Couple that with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs planning on feeding him and I truly think we have yet to even see the full tip of the iceberg of Walker’s potential. Currently off boards as the RB16, I fully expect him to be a top 10 RB this season.
Aaron Jones (RB, MIN), ADP 55.8: Aaron Jones turns 30 in December, is coming off a season shortened by injury, and is joining a new team and offense. I love this pick still. The JJ McCarthy injury doesn’t change much in my eyes, as I expect this offense to be a healthy dose of Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones. Jones has thrived as a bellcow and has been fighting for his touches with AJ Dillon for the last couple of seasons. He will have no such competition this season with only Ty Chandler coming up behind him. Even in what can be considered a down year last season, Jones was on pace for 1000 yards rushing. When Minnesota’s offense was running at its best, Dalvin Cook was putting up 1400 scrimmage yards. I fully expect Aaron Jones to step into that role at an even higher clip and believe 1500+ total yards and 10+ touchdowns are well within reach for Aaron this season. You can also pencil in a couple of monster revenge games against Green Bay.
David Montgomery (RB, DET), ADP 62.8: David Montgomery doesn’t fit the mold of the first three RBs listed here, as he plays more as a 1B to Jahmyr Gibbs, but there is plenty to like about him. Monty had a great season in 2023, producing 1015 yards and 13 TDs in 14 games, and this performance doesn’t seem like a one-off. Jamaal Williams had a similar season the year before and Montgomery slid into that role and filled it perfectly even with Gibbs earning a prominent role. The Lions like to play hard-nosed run it down your throat football when they get into their goal-to-go situations and Montgomery will continue to feast in that role. With Gibbs nursing a hamstring injury, an injury that commonly lingers, Montgomery could be in a position to take on more of a load than he was expected to, especially in the early weeks.
Middle Round Values (Rounds 6-10)
Rome Odunze (WR, CHI), ADP 72.8: If it weren’t for Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze’s ADP might be much earlier as an impressive rookie receiver. The focus has been on MHJ (fairly), and Malik Nabers has also gotten some love, but Rome is well in line to have himself an OROY candidate season if he can build rapport with #1 overall pick Caleb Williams. Chicago’s WR room has a lot of mouths to feed, but let the 2023 Houston Texans be your guide here: a stellar rookie QB with a young receiving corps spreads the ball around. This time though, the rookie QB isn’t hiding in plain sight. Grab a piece of this offense while you can and expect a Tank Dell-like season except in full, with upside for 1100 yards and 10 TDs.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI), ADP 69.9: For better or for worse, it seems as though the fantasy community has forgotten about Kyler’s elite upside. He flashed a little bit of it towards the end of last season, but now with a full training camp behind him and the best offensive weapon he has had since Deandre Hopkins, he seems poised for another big year. The last time he started a season this way, the Cardinals started 7-0 and Murray looked like an MVP candidate. You don’t even need that type of season to make drafting him in the 5th or early 6th round justified. He will feed Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride all season long, and when he can’t, he’ll be running for big chunk plays. This time next season you’ll have to be drafting Murray in the 3rd or 4th round, so take your shot with him in a later round while you still can.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC), ADP 81.7: I know Rice’s off-the-field stuff is baked into why his ADP is so low, but at this point, it is becoming pretty clear that any suspension won’t be handed out until next season. The public is realizing this and his ADP is rising, but his current ADP still provides value. Rice and Travis Kelce will be Mahomes’ go-to players to move the chains while Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown handle gadget plays and chunk plays. In the last third of last season, Rice was one of the best WRs you could have in the league and his chemistry with Mahomes only expanded during the playoffs. With a full season under his belt and another year of growth, you could be looking at a top-20 WR this season in Rice.
Blake Corum (RB, LAR), ADP 115.3: I’m not spilling any secrets in saying Blake Corum is a talented RB, as we all saw his abilities on display in his National Championship run at Michigan. I still think you can take him earlier than his ADP and get value out of it. Sean McVay loves Corum and went out of his way to go get him, and even with Kyren Williams ahead of him on the depth chart, Corum can make a splash in 2024. Kyren served as a classic McVay bellcow towards the end of last season and won a lot of people their fantasy league, but Kyren doesn’t have a traditional bellcow build and already has a history of injuries. Corum will get the opportunity to take snaps away from Kyren, and when he makes good on them, McVay won’t be able to keep himself from increasing his workload. Corum can very easily be this season’s Kyren Williams, and if you can scoop up this season’s league winner in the 8th/9th round, you should do it.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN), ADP 117.0: Hop aboard this hype train while you still have the chance. Chase Brown showed a lot of promise last season when given a shot and Cincinnati only bringing in Zack Moss for RB depth is a move that tells me that, while the backfield may be in a 50/50 timeshare to begin the season, the Bengals believe in Brown and would have no issue with the backfield becoming his. Everything out of training camp about Brown has been very positive, whilst you could very easily forget that Moss is even on the roster. This NFL season, come see the Chase and (Ja’Marr) Chase show, coming to a Bengals offense near you!
Late Round Values (After Round 10)
Josh Palmer (WR, LAC), ADP 145.4: I know the Chargers WR room is quite barren, one of the bottom 10 in the league, but someone has to catch the ball, right? Josh Palmer put up a top-40 WR season in 2022–his last full season–and he did that with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen above him on the depth chart. Locked into a starting role and being the one trusted most by Justin Herbert, I expect him to have a big breakout campaign in 2024. The Chargers seem poised to throw the ball a lot less in the Harbaugh-Roman era, but all of that run game will set the passing game up in far more ideal settings, and in those settings, Palmer will get a large chunk of targets. Last season was his first time dealing with any injuries at the pro level, so I wouldn’t hold that against him. I expect him to be healthy and to finish around WR30 or better this season.
Ja’Lynn Polk (WR, NE), ADP 167.7: Ja’Lynn Polk is flat-out not being discussed enough. This man is having himself a fantastic training camp, solidifying himself as a reliable red zone threat and consistently winning 1v1s. In a barren receiver corps in New England, Polk can become the WR1 and become the cornerstone of this team’s passing offense. Couple that with Drake Maye looking much better than most pundits believed he could be early on, and I think you are looking at one of the best values in the draft. Polk is more often than not going undrafted, but he could finish the season being viewed as a legitimate NFL number one WR. Take your shot at Polk and reap the rewards.
Ben Sinnott (TE, WAS), ADP 177.8: Brock Bowers was far and away the best TE in the draft but was drafted to a less-than-ideal situation in Las Vegas. Conversely, while Ben Sinnott is probably the second-best TE prospect in the draft, he finds himself in a fantastic position with the Washington Commanders. Zach Ertz is very much on a rapid downhill trajectory at this point in his career, but can still be a valuable veteran presence. John Bates, meanwhile, is not established enough to hold off Sinnott. Sinnott is in a prime position to begin the season as the starting TE for rookie Jayden Daniels and can provide a lot of value if he solidifies himself as a safety valve for the young quarterback. Plus, with Washington dealing away Jahan Dotson, there are even more targets to go his way. Being able to take a starting TE with this kind of ceiling this late in the draft is a blessing.
Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL), ADP 181.6: This one has been a little bit puzzling for me. Mooney features as the number two receiver in a barren WR room for Atlanta as a deep threat option opposite Drake London. Coming from Chicago, he has never had good QB play, and he finally gets that with Kirk Cousins. When Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts draw the defense in, Mooney will be there to take the top off of them every week. He is in prime position for a breakout season. If you find yourself wanting to take a late-round flyer on some WR depth, Mooney is a fantastic option that is available 99% of the time.
Tim Patrick (WR, DEN), ADP 593.7: One of my favourite late-round flyers. I know Tim Patrick is coming off a season-ending knee injury and then a season-ending Achilles injury, but when he was last healthy and playing, he was grabbing 50 receptions, 750 yards, and 5 TDs a season as a third option on a Denver team with poor QB play. He is healthy now, having a brilliant training camp and preseason with no real WR competition and a 24-year-old rookie QB who looks to at least be an average starting QB in the NFL. Other Broncos WRs have been disappointing this training camp and offseason. Patrick can very easily lead this team in all receiving categories this season. Draft him, and when the whole world is going to waivers to pick him up after Week 1, let all your league mates be disappointed to see you already have him.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)