ADP is a helpful metric that shows how the market values a player and helps identify how long you can wait to draft a player you like. One of the best ways to gain an edge over your friends and league mates will be to identify areas of opportunity to reach for a player whose ADP isn’t matching what you expect their true value to be.
I have compiled a list of players throughout the draft that I think you can aim to draft ahead of their respective ADP. Let your league mates draft overvalued public favorites and gain the advantage by following this list designed specifically for Yahoo leagues. All ADP referenced in this article comes from Yahoo’s Draft Analysis based on standard scoring settings for Yahoo leagues found here, taken on August 18th.
Early Round Values (Rounds 1-5)
Mike Evans (WR, TB), ADP 24.9: Death, taxes, and Mike Evans recording 1000+ receiving yards. Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink things. When you’re making some of your early-round picks, you want to make sure you get a return on investment. There has not been a much more consistent player than Evans since he stepped into the league. I understand the apprehension, he turns 31 in a couple of days and receivers don’t normally age well. However, there are always exceptions to rules. At age 30, he played all 17 games and had one of the three best seasons of his career, finishing as the WR5 in standard Yahoo leagues. Also, all the receivers between Evans and the Big 5 WRs have some form of question marks (QB play, sophomore slump, rookie year, QB/coach relationship, etc.), so it’s not like the wide receivers taken in front of him are risk-free. Add in another season of chemistry between him and Baker Mayfield and you’re once again looking at top-10 value for a guy consistently slipping into the 3rd round. Not to mention Tampa Bay’s mostly stagnant offseason on the offensive side of the ball means Evans should be in line for a similar target share, if not, a bigger one.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET), ADP 27.1: Locking in a gamechanger at your tight end position is one of the biggest advantages you can get in fantasy football. At best there are six TE’s throughout the league in any given season that can provide consistent value throughout the year, and usually only a couple that can contribute at the level of a good wide receiver. Sam LaPorta will be gone midway through the second round in the coming seasons, so you’ll need to get ahead of it. He finished as the TE1 easily and was the 11th player overall in his rookie season. I would count on him to only improve in this high-powered Detroit offense that has remained mostly unchanged. I have found myself taking LaPorta a ton in the second round and have no regrets about it. I expect him to remain a safe target for Jared Goff in the red zone and approach, if not, eclipse the 1000-yard mark this season. This is the only tight end I would bother taking in the first five rounds as there is great value in other TEs later in the draft.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL), ADP 35.4: Having an impact in the run game is the biggest X factor a QB could have, and yet arguably the most talented running QB we have ever seen is still going fourth among QBs. Coming off an MVP season, Lamar has slimmed down about 15-20 pounds with the idea of being faster, and he now has the best backfield weapon he’s ever had alongside him. Usually, I don’t spend too much time reading into players gaining or losing weight however this seems like an intentional attempt to be faster with the idea of using his legs more. I just cannot wait to watch him run Mesh with King Derrick Henry as his option and absolutely toy with edge rushers all season long. Two of the three QBs currently being drafted before him have question marks heading into the season. Josh Allen’s offense took the ball out of his hands a lot more once Joe Brady took over as Offensive Coordinator, and this offseason he also lost his top two WR targets. The rocky relationship between Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts is not a secret and people seem to be overlooking the loss of Jason Kelce. On the other hand, Jackson just lost a playoff game where he was torched for not doing more with his legs. He’s coming into this season on a mission, so if you take a QB in the first 30 picks it shouldn’t be anybody other than Lamar Jackson.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA), ADP 48.9: I have found that a lot of value in RBs is just finding players who are firmly entrenched in a starting RB role as opposed to the more common 1A/1B rotations and that is what we have here with Kenneth Walker III. Zach Charbonnet seems to be entrenched in a more situational role around short-distance downs and goal-line plays, but it will be Walker getting the lion’s share of touches. Last season, he managed 900 yards behind a worse offensive line and with limited carries. Couple that with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb planning on feeding him and I truly think we have yet to even see the full tip of the iceberg of Walker’s potential. Currently off boards as the RB17 I fully expect him to be a top 10 RB this season.
Aaron Jones (RB, MIN), ADP 52.5: Aaron Jones turns 30 in December, is coming off a season shortened by injury, and is joining a new team and offense. Despite all that, I love this pick still. The JJ McCarthy injury doesn’t even factor in here as regardless I expected this offense to be a healthy dose of Justin Jefferson and Jones. Aaron Jones has thrived as a bell-cow and has been fighting for his touches with AJ Dillon for the last couple of seasons. He will have no such competition this season with only Ty Chandler coming up behind him. Even in what can be considered a down year last season he was on pace for 1000 yards rushing. When Minnesota’s offense was running at its best, Dalvin Cook was putting up 1400 scrimmage yards. I fully expect Aaron Jones to step into that role at an even higher clip, 1500+ yards and 10+ touchdowns are well within reach for Jones this season.
Middle Round Values (Rounds 6-10)
Christian Kirk (WR, JAX), ADP 80.2: This is the point of the draft that I start finding a lot of value in receivers and either take Christian Kirk or the next player on this list. His hype has faded since his breakout campaign, with last year’s season ending early due to injury, but he was actually on pace for a better season than his one prior, if only just. People forget that the Jaguars were 8-3 heading into a matchup with the Bengals before Kirk and Trevor Lawrence went down with injuries. Even with the new additions of Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr, I expect Lawrence to lean on his trusted veteran Kirk throughout the year and would expect a repeat, at least, of his 2022 season where he finished as the WR11.
Keenan Allen (WR, CHI), ADP 81.2: Coming off arguably the best season of his career I am finding it difficult to fully understand why Keenan Allen is available in so many drafts this deep. I know he’s turning 32, but considering in his age 31 season he set a career-high in receptions and had his second-best season in both yards and receptions in only 13 games speaks volumes. He’s been, alongside Mike Evans, one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL and he’s been doing it in offenses that allow the defenses to hone in on him. In Chicago he’ll join a roster with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet, so defenses will not be able to hone in on him anymore. I know there is only one ball to go around, but if Caleb Williams is the player many (including myself) believe him to be, then he will find the open player, and Allen in single coverage will be open, all day long. Another top 15 WR season is well on the way for Allen.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT), ADP 94.1: The argument for Jaylen Warren is a similar one to taking Najee Harris, only that for whatever reason the Yahoo population has decided Harris is the Steeler RB to pick as evidenced by his 71.9 ADP. Arthur Smith taking over as OC for Pittsburgh means a lot more running the ball and with Warren and Harris essentially in a 50/50 backfield, both will benefit. Warren being this low does surprise me as he was the one who impressed me far more last season and I expect him to take another step, I would be surprised if we get to Thanksgiving and Warren hasn’t taken a lead in this backfield. (Editor’s Note: This was written prior to Jaylen Warren’s hamstring injury in Week 2 of the preseason.)
Jayden Reed (WR, GB), ADP 95.7: Navigating the Green Bay receiving corps is a little tricky, but this one still has me puzzled. Reed had a strong rookie season coming on especially strong towards the end of the year and finishing as WR23 in standard Yahoo leagues. Jordan Love took about half the season to get going, which correlates with Reed’s season taking a turn for the better so if you believe in Love picking up where he left off, then Reed has a very real opportunity to be a top 15 WR this season. Seeing him being picked this low consistently is a bit of a headscratcher, as even with the crowded WR room Green Bay can very easily have two top 25 WRs this season.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN), ADP 118.7: Hop aboard while you have the chance! Brown showed a lot of promise last season when given a shot and Cincinnati only bringing in Zack Moss for RB depth is a move that tells me that while the backfield may be in a 50/50 timeshare to being the season, the Bengals believe in Brown and would have no issue with the backfield becoming his. Everything out of training camp about Brown has been very positive, whilst you could very easily forget that Moss is even on the roster. The Chase and (Ja’Marr) Chase show coming to a Bengals offense near you!
Late Round Values (After Round 10)
Jameson Williams (WR, DET), ADP 126.2: Williams is starting to feel a little bit like that player who is always one week away from breaking out, but when they have this level of talent and athleticism coupled with the college resume he has you extend the leash. OC Ben Johnson has done nothing but sing his praises all training camp and has mentioned on multiple occasions that he’ll be getting more opportunities this season. He flashed his excellence during Detroit’s playoff run and considering that the Lions are fairly thin at WR he will have the opportunity to finish as a top 30 WR this season. With Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown providing a lot of the intermediate production, you can count on Jameson to have a big play week in and week out to anchor his fantasy production.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT), ADP 129.8: One of my favorite TE picks this year. If you aren’t able to get good value on a TE early or even if you do and you’re just looking for a solid backup, Freiermuth is your guy. The hype train for Freiermuth has derailed at this point making him a perfect late-round TE pick. Firmly entrenched as Pittsburgh’s TE1 in a passing offense that only features George Pickens and himself means he will see more than his fair share of targets. He will get the best QB play of his career, with the best OC he’s had in his career with Arthur Smith who climbed through the coaching ranks as a TE coach. After Freiermuth’s breakout campaign in his rookie season, everyone has been expecting a step to be taken, but in reality, he has never been put in a position to take that next step until now.
Romeo Doubs (WR, GB), ADP 131.2: The Packers receiving room is crowded as we mentioned with Reed, but with Love looking to prove that he deserves $175 million guaranteed I imagine everyone in the room will get fed. Specifically, I anticipate Reed to get targets and yards out of the slot, while Doubs will score the most touchdowns as he is easily the best at making contested catches and Jordan absolutely Loves him, pun very much intended. A third year working with Love and honing his craft will be good for him, I anticipate him taking a step this season approaching 1000 yards and 10 TDs as Love’s favorite WR red zone target.
Ben Sinnott (TE, WAS), ADP 135.8: Brock Bowers was far and away the best TE in the draft, however, he was drafted to a less-than-ideal situation. Sinnott is probably the second-best TE prospect in the draft and finds himself in a fantastic position. Zach Ertz is very much on a rapid downhill trajectory at this point in his career, but he can be a valuable veteran presence still and John Bates is not established enough to hold off Sinnott. Sinnott is in a prime position to start the season off as the starting TE for rookie Jayden Daniels and can provide a lot of value if he solidifies himself as a safety valve for the young quarterback. Being able to take a starting TE with this kind of ceiling this late in the draft is a blessing.
Ja’Lynn Polk (WR, NE), ADP Undrafted: Ja’Lynn Polk is flat out not being discussed enough. This man is having himself a fantastic training camp solidifying himself as a reliable red zone threat and consistently winning 1v1s. In a barren receiver corps like NE has, he can and will quickly become the WR1 and can be the cornerstone of this team’s passing offense. Couple that with Drake Maye looking a lot better than most pundits believed he could be early on and I think you are looking at very easily the best value in the draft, someone who is more often than not going undrafted who could finish the season being viewed as a legitimate NFL number one WR. Take your shot at Polk and reap the rewards.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)