Beating the Spread: Week 10 Picks

Our Week 10 Beat the Spread column is ready to go for your consideration as you put in your weekly bets!

Welcome back to another week of Beating the Spread. As always, I’m Jake Roy and I’m joined by Brennan Rampe and Tyler Gentile. We’ll be here every Friday throughout the season, posting our picks along with some analysis.

What a week for the Beat the Spread squad. We had some overlap in picks but managed to go a combined 12-3, with each of us coming in at 4-1. That brings us all to at least 50% on the season. We’re over halfway through the season now and are facing a small board with a bunch of teams off this week; let’s see if we can carry that Week Eight momentum into November and through the holidays.

You can play along in the comments or find us on Twitter (@Jake3Roy, @808Paperboi, @phdinnfl). Assuming -110 odds we need about 53% to break even, let’s see if we can hit that magic number for the season and come out with some profit. So, without further ado, here are the lines we’ll use for Week 10!

 

Week 10 Betting Lines
Away Home Line O/U
Seahawks Buccaneers Buccaneers -2.5 44.5
Broncos Titans Titans -3.0 39.0
Browns Dolphins Dolphins -3.5 48.5
Saints Steelers Saints -2.5 40.5
Lions Bears Bears -2.5 45.5
Vikings Bills Bills -5.5 45.5
Texans Giants Giants -6.5 40.5
Jaguars Chiefs Chiefs -9.5 50.5
Colts Raiders Raiders -6.5 42.5
Cowboys Packers Cowboys -5.0 43.0
Cardinals Rams Rams -3.5 43.5
Chargers 49ers 49ers -7.0 45.5
Commanders Eagles Eagles -11.0 44.0

 

Staff Picks
Jake Roy (@Jake3Roy) Brennan Rampe (@Phdinnfl) Tyler Gentile (@808PaperBoi)
Pick #1 Broncos/Titans under 39.0 Titans -3.0 Seahawks +2.5
Pick #2 Dolphins -3.5 Bears -2.5 Bears/Lions over 48.5
Pick #3 Saints/Steelers under 40.5 Vikings +5.5 Bills/Vikings under 45.5
Pick #4 Cardinals +3.5 Cowboys -5.0 Cowboys -5.0
Pick #5 Chargers/49ers under 45.5 49ers -7.0 Raiders -6.5
Record 23-22 22-21-2 27-17-1

 

Analysis

 

Jake Roy

 

First up, I’m taking a page out of Tyler’s book and taking the Broncos under. I apologize in advance for almost definitely ruining this streak of unders they have going, but it’s gone on for long enough that I have to jump on board. Show me you can actually score some points and then I’ll think twice about this one. If Malik Willis is at quarterback for the Titans, I don’t like their odds of scoring a ton of points either. While the run game is solid, the Broncos should be better equipped to handle it than the Chiefs were. I’ll go with yet another under for the Broncos. DEN/TEN U39.0

This one feels like a really square pick, but I’m going to do it anyways because sometimes the squares win. Maybe it’s a case of the Browns being better than their record and the Dolphins being worse than theirs, but this spread feels a little too small. Although the Dolphins’ defense is a weakness, the Browns don’t do a ton to scare you offensively outside of Nick Chubb. Miami’s offense should be able to get up and down the field against a weak Cleveland defense as well. This line stinks a little bit and I’d recommend buying it down to an even number, but I like Miami in a runaway here. MIA -3.5

If you watched Andy Dalton and the Saints on Monday Night Football this past week, I’m sorry. I was half-watching while streaming college basketball on my laptop, and even I was frustrated with the Saints’ offense. Every time I looked up, the ball was being batted down at the line of scrimmage. Jameis Winston is the only man who can save that offense, and for whatever reason, they refuse to put him back in the game. The Steelers also have their fair share of issues on offense and traded away Chase Claypool. They still have solid receivers with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, but catching the ball hasn’t been the issue. They’ve had subpar play at quarterback all season, and they aren’t getting much on the ground. Although the defenses here are below average, I don’t see points getting on the board in a hurry. NO/PIT U40.5

Matthew Stafford was just put in concussion protocol and may be out this week. I’m going to make this pick assuming that he will play. If you still get the Cardinals at +3.5 with Stafford out, run to your sportsbook and get that bet in. Don’t walk. Run. Like Kyler Murray on the goal line. Run. Even if Stafford plays, I still like the Cardinals to keep this game inside a field goal. The Rams have had their fair share of struggles on offense all season, and the Cardinals have got a huge boost with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. Although the Cardinals’ defense struggles, I think the offense should be able to keep pace with their division rival and keep this game within a field goal. ARI +3.5

Another prime-time game, another under. Last on the card for week ten we have the 49ers and Chargers on Sunday Night Football. This is another case of neither offense really terrifying me. The Niners have some explosive weapons, but the quarterback really limits the big play ability. The Chargers have some great receivers, but they’re all constantly hurt. 45.5 is about as low as I would play this under, but it feels entirely too high for these two offenses. I could see San Francisco running it up and getting some points on the board, but I really doubt we see much from the Chargers on the road. LAC/SF U45.5

 

Brennan Rampe

 

The Titans gave it their all against the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a 20-17 overtime loss. I was surprised the game ended up being so close because rookie quarterback Malik Willis started and had no wide receivers to throw to. The one thing we did learn about Tennessee was that this is an elite defense. Ryan Tannehill and rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks should return, which will improve the passing game. There’s no question who won the A.J. Brown trade right now. Burks has to step up because he’s done almost nothing while on the field this season. The Broncos were on their bye week but traded Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins. Denver’s offense has been mediocre all season long and after what I saw from the Titans’ defense through four quarters and most of overtime, they should be able to shut them down with no problems.  I think this will be a defensive battle that the Titans should win. Inside the Numbers: The Titans are 30-28-1 in conference games against the spread under head coach Mike Vrabel. TEN -3.0

The Bears lost in a shootout to the Dolphins, but Justin Fields continues to grow every week. This team’s offense looked like Matt Nagy was still the head coach through most of the season but ever since week seven, they’ve been great. They added Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and although he didn’t do much in his first game with Chicago, I think he will be an important piece of the offense going forward. The Lions won 15-9 over the Packers but they got lucky. Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions and they were all near the end zone. Detroit’s offense did just enough to win but the explosive unit we saw at the beginning of the season has vanished. Dan Campbell is 0-2 against the Bears as head coach of the Lions, and he still hasn’t won a road game yet. I like the Bears to win this one. Inside the Numbers: The Lions are 6-6 against the spread as away underdogs, but their average MOV (margin of victory, or in this case, loss) is -12.3 points. CHI -2.5
The Bills lost to their divisional rival Jets in a major upset. Buffalo’s offense was slowed down by the Jets’ defense, and their defense couldn’t hold on to a 14-3 lead. To make things worse, Josh Allen suffered an elbow injury that could potentially keep him out for a maximum of four weeks. Backup Case Keenum is likely to start against the team he was a part of in 2017, the year where the Minneapolis Miracle occurred. It’s a one-possession game every week for the Vikings (except the first two weeks), and it happened again last week. They were down 17-7 to the Commanders in the fourth quarter and then scored 13 points in a comeback win. Case Keenum is a great backup, but he’s not Josh Allen. Allen was probably going to light up the Minnesota defense after losing a very winnable game. I like the Vikings to do what no other team has done so far this season, and that is defeating Buffalo at home. Inside the Numbers: This is a gut pick. The aura of invincibility is gone from the Bills and the addition of T.J. Hockenson makes the Vikings a more complete team. MIN +5.5
After a 19-3 loss to the Buccaneers in week one where it was revealed that Dak Prescott would miss time with a thumb injury, I thought the Cowboys were finished. Backup Cooper Rush came off the bench and went 4-1 through five games. Prescott returned in week seven and the offense got better in his return. The offensive line is holding up well without Tyron Smith and their defense is one of the best in the league. Their defense makes them a Super Bowl contender and they have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Odell Beckham Jr., which would make the offense even more explosive. The Packers have been one of the most disappointing teams this season as they are 3-6. Aaron Rodgers clearly misses Davante Adams, and the new wide receivers aren’t getting the job done. They’re always hurt and they’re not gaining Rodgers’s trust even when they’re on the field. On defense, they lost Rashan Gary to a torn ACL, which will hurt this team for the rest of the year. Rodgers has had success against Dallas in his career but I think he will lose in the first and potentially last meeting between Rodgers and his old head coach, Mike McCarthy. This is my first ever time betting against the Packers instead of betting on them. In my opinion, Green Bay is finished this year, and they better hope Rodgers doesn’t retire after the season. That would be the end of their decades-long rule over the NFC North. Inside the Numbers: The Cowboys are 6-1-0 as an away favorite against the spread under Mike McCarthy. DAL -5.0
The last time we saw the 49ers was in week eight, where they destroyed their divisional rival Rams, running their streak to eight in a row in the regular season. San Francisco won 31-14 as running back Christian McCaffrey had a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown, and also threw a touchdown to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. They did that without wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who was inactive. Samuel is expected to return for this game, which will make the offense even more formidable. The defense is dealing with injuries on the defensive line but defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is making it work, and he is looking like a head coach candidate for next year. The Chargers beat the Falcons on the road 20-17 despite being without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They got very lucky though as running back Austin Ekeler fumbled near the end of the game, and then Falcons defensive lineman TaQuan Graham fumbled the fumble. Atlanta was up 10-0 and blew it. Marcus Mariota mostly just hands the ball off and runs it himself sometimes. He just isn’t much of a passer, unlike Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers’ defense should be able to completely stifle Los Angeles’s offense if Allen and Williams don’t play. San Francisco was also on their bye week, so they are going to be prepared for this one. I think that they will win by a touchdown. Inside the Numbers: The 49ers are 13-11-0 against the spread in non-conference games under Kyle Shanahan. SF -7.0

Tyler Gentile

 

What more do these Seahawks need to do in order to put some respect on their name? Winners of four straight, the Hawks are a legitimate squad and the market has yet to catch up. This team has flipped the switch on their defense and have transformed into one of the better defensive sides as of late. Through week five they had the worst defense in terms of EPA while allowing nearly 31 points per game. Over their last four games, they have the second best defense according to EPA and have allowed just 16.5pg. Sure, it’s a small sample, and it’s not like they faced the Chiefs or Bills, but it’s a drastic improvement from where they were. Tampa Bay hasn’t inspired ANYTHING on offense this year either ranking t27th in yards per play, 30th in red zone scoring rate, and 25th in points per game (18). Geno Smith’s resurgence is well-documented and he has led Seattle to being t4th in yards per play behind only the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins. Screw the points. I’ll be taking them on the money line at around +130 this week. Brady will continue to lose on and off the field thanks to FTX. SEA +2.5

As long as the wind is tame enough in the windy city, I’ll be looking to take the over in any Bears game from here on out. This feels like such an obvious over smash spot between two terrible defenses and solid offenses. Chicago seems to have taken a page out of the Ravens offense: take the reins off their quarterback and let him run wild when he needs to. Justin Fields broke Michael Vick’s record for most rushing yards in a game by a quarterback last week with 178 and he’ll likely run for another 100 against the Lions defense allowing the most yards per play to opponents. The Bears defense is t6th worst in that same category and they recently traded their top two defensive pieces in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. The main concern for this over comes from Jared Goff’s play in a cold weather game, but everyone scores on the Bears. They’re allowing 24 points per game and are a wrecking ball on offense with Fields as of late scoring 32, 29, and 33 points over their last three games. DET/CHI O48.5

It’s never easy taking an under in a Bills game, but without Josh Allen it will be. He hasn’t been ruled out yet, but there’s no use in him starting this week or for the next couple really. Rather than putting the team’s long term outlook for this season in jeopardy, I’d expect him to sit out for the next couple of weeks to let his throwing elbow rest.

Case Keenum is fine, but the weather will not be with expected snow and wind up to 20 mph. The Bills are getting healthier on defense and are t6th in opponent yards per play and fourth in opponent red zone scoring rate. I don’t buy what the Vikings are doing either, ranking t17th on offense in yards per play. Even if Allen does play there is no way they’re running out a gameplan where he’s throwing the ball deep downfield in a potential snow storm. MIN/BUF U45.5

What a bizarre turn of events for the Colts. They hired a former high-school football coach. This is Ted Lasso in real life. It would be one thing if Jeff Saturday was still a part of the Colts organization, but he has been an analyst for ESPN since 2013 and has as much coaching experience in the NFL as you and I. Good thing they have an established veteran quarterback who can–wait Matt Ryan isn’t starting anymore. They are starting a quarterback making his third career start! I guess they can just run Jonathan Taylor and his bum ankle 30 times, but the Raiders have a formidable defensive line allowing the t7th fewest yards per carry. It’s pretty wild to see the market fail to make much of an adjustment with this green Indy team. They closed as 4.5 underdogs last week on the road at New England (lost 26-3) with a legitimate coaching staff and they’re still +4.5 this week despite all the turmoil.The Raiders aren’t scary by any means, but they don’t have a coach calling plays for the first time in his career (Parks Frazier). They should be able to handle whatever this Indy team has to offer. LVR -6.5

I don’t understand how this line is trending in the Packers favor now sitting at four in some places. Sure, Lambeau is a tough place to play and it’s the first time Aaron Rodgers has been a home dog of three or more points in his career, but I don’t care about that mumbo-jumbo! The Packers stink. It’s not hard to see. Look at who they’ve played over their five game losing streak! The Giants, Jets, Commanders, Bills (ok, tough), and Lions. They might be in an even worse state than it seems. Their best playmaker, Aaron Jones, is nursing an ankle injury. The best player of their front seven, Rashan Gary, has been placed on injured reserve. Their number two receiver, Romeo Doubs, is out for 4-6 weeks, and save me the writing and look at the rest of their injury report. Half of their starters have some sort of injury designation. Beyond the injuries, they’re just incredibly out of sync on both sides of the ball. They scored nine points against the league’s worst defense last week and get to face one of the best this week. Dallas gets to the quarterback better than anyone with the best sack percentage and best pass-rush win rate. That has led to being ranked 4th in opponent yards per play. Aaron Rodgers looks like Ben Roethlisberger from last season with how quick he is dumping the ball out. Coming off their bye the Cowboys should feast in Green Bay. DAL -5.0

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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