Welcome back to another week of Beating the Spread. As always, I’m Jake Roy and I’m joined by Brennan Rampe and Tyler Gentile. We’ll be here every Friday throughout the season, posting our picks along with some analysis.
All of us over at QB List hope you had a great holiday full of food, family, and of course football. After gassing myself up last weekend, I’m obligated to shout out Tyler for his 5-0 week. Five wins without a loss is no small feat. Check out his Twitter too for some great prop bet analysis. We’ve got a smaller board in front of us this week due to three Thanksgiving games, but with every team in action this week we still have plenty to pick from.
You can play along in the comments or find us on Twitter (@Jake3Roy, @808Paperboi, @phdinnfl). Assuming -110 odds we need about 53% to break even, let’s see if we can hit that magic number for the season and come out with some profit. So, without further ado, here are the lines we’ll use for Week 11!
| Away | Home | Line | O/U |
| Broncos | Panthers | Broncos -2.5 | 37.0 |
| Buccaneers | Browns | Buccaneers -3.5 | 43.0 |
| Falcons | Commanders | Commanders -4.0 | 42.0 |
| Ravens | Jaguars | Ravens -4.0 | 43.5 |
| Bears | Jets | Jets -4.5 | 39.5 |
| Bengals | Titans | Bengals -2.0 | 42.5 |
| Texans | Dolphins | Dolphins -13.0 | 46.0 |
| Raiders | Seahawks | Seahawks -3.5 | 47.5 |
| Chargers | Cardinals | Chargers -4.5 | 47.5 |
| Rams | Chiefs | Chiefs -14.5 | 44.0 |
| Saints | 49ers | 49ers -9.0 | 43.0 |
| Packers | Eagles | Eagles -7.0 | 46.5 |
| Steelers | Colts | Colts -2.5 | 39.0 |
| Jake Roy (@Jake3Roy) | Brennan Rampe (@Phdinnfl) | Tyler Gentile (@808PaperBoi) | |
| Pick #1 | Cardinals +4.5 | Buccaneers -3.5 | Broncos/Panthers under 37.0 |
| Pick #2 | Bengals/Titans 0ver 42.5 | Titans +2.0 | Seahawks -3.5 |
| Pick #3 | Ravens -4.0 | Seahawks -3.5 | Ravens -4.0 |
| Pick #4 | Packers/Eagles under 46.5 | Chiefs -14.5 | Bengals/Titans 0ver 42.5 |
| Pick #5 | Steelers +2.5 | 49ers -9.0 | Seahawks -3.5 |
| Record | 32-23 | 26-27-2 | 33-21-1 |
Analysis
Jake Roy
Back-to-back solid weeks for Jake, let’s keep it rolling through the holidays. First up we have the Cardinals hosting the Chargers after both teams lost in primetime in week 11. Kyler Murray should be back for the Cardinals after missing a few weeks. Los Angeles, as always, has half of their roster on injured reserve. The offensive line has been an issue for the Chargers since losing Rashawn Slater, Arizona should have success getting after Herbert, especially with all the injuries to the Chargers’ receivers. With Arizona getting points, it’s a no-brainer. Take the points, and thank me later. ARI +4.5
Next on the docket, the Bengals travel to Tennessee. The total is set at 42.5. That feels far too low to me. If the number stays there by the time this is published, I’d recommend buying the half point to bring it down to 42 even, but that’s a matter of personal preference. Cincinnati has been hurt by the run game at times, surrendering 4.4 yards per carry. Derrick Henry will see the ball often and should be able to do some damage. Treylon Burks had the best game of his rookie year last week, giving the Titans a solid weapon in the passing game. The Bengals should have Ja’Marr Chase back to complement Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. This one could quickly turn into a high-scoring affair. Take the over. CIN/TEN O42.5
I hate taking road favorites, but I also hate the Jaguars. Not on a personal level; I’m sure the organization is just lovely, but I hate them from a football perspective. They don’t do anything particularly well. Yeah, the Ravens have been disappointing, but they’re more talented at every level. It’s a buy-low spot after they scored just thirteen points against Carolina. Harbaugh should have them ready to go following a disappointing effort last week. BAL -4.0
Moving on to the primetime games, Sunday night features the Eagles and Packers. The total here feels off as well, especially with rain in the forecast for Sunday. Aaron Rodgers announced he’s been playing with a broken thumb for most of the season earlier this week which explains why they’re throwing the ball less than ever and scoring fewer points than ever. Announcing the injury seven weeks after the fact is a very Lebron-esque excuse, but I digress. The Eagles’ defense has been stout and should be improved as their new signings have more time in the system. The Packers are allowing 22 points a game which puts them in the middle of the league. I see another Sunday night slugfest. Something like 23-13. GB/PHI U46.5
And finally, on Monday night we have the Steelers and Colts in Indianapolis. Jeff Saturday has done an okay job since taking over as head coach, beating the Raiders and losing to the Eagles by just a point. The wheels are bound to fall off eventually though. Mike Tomlin is far more experienced, and while the Steelers don’t have a ton of talent, they do have the best player on the field, T.J. Watt. Watt himself is capable of taking over a game. He’s a complete wrecking ball on defense, and sometimes that’s all you need. I have a feeling he’ll show up in prime time, at least enough to keep it close. PIT +2.5
Brennan Rampe
The Buccaneers were on their bye week in Week 11. The last time we saw them, they defeated the Seahawks in Germany. They were up 21-3 at one point but let Seattle back into the game and escaped with a 21-16 victory. Tom Brady and the offense had one of their best performances of the season, and there’s a possibility that wide receiver Russell Gage will return after missing time with a hamstring injury. The Browns lost to the Bills in Detroit and gave up over 30 points once again. Their defense has been horrendous despite the talent on that side of the ball, and Nick Chubb barely did anything against a Buffalo defense that allowed Dalvin Cook to run for over 100 yards. People expected this type of season from them. The Browns will probably be a good team in 2023 and the years after that when Deshaun Watson comes back from suspension. However, he hasn’t played a game in almost two years. This will be Jacoby Brissett’s last game starting for Cleveland, and I don’t think it’ll go very well against a defense that shut down Seattle for a large portion of the game. Tom Brady is also 7-1 against the Browns in his career, and I think he’ll beat them one last time. Inside the Numbers: Tampa Bay is 6-2 against the spread with an average margin of victory (MOV) of 10.4 points with a rest advantage since 2020. TB -3.5
Tyler Gentile
HA! The bookmakers thought making a total this low would stop me? Hilarious. I don’t care if this number is similar to an Iowa vs Iowa State game! If they set this at 30 I still might take the under. By now everyone should know that the Broncos might be the best under team of all time. They’re 9-1 to the under this season. As for the Panthers, they actually have a decent defense and are 14th in opponent yards per play. Carolina games are 7-4 to the under this season. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, so keep cooking up what you have been Russ. I’m genuinely curious about what his cooking is like with how much talk there has been around it. Can we get him on Celebrity Chopped? DEN/CAR U37.0
Would it really surprise anyone if the Bucs’ got hot at the back end of the season and rode that momentum into a playoff run? It has been an ugly season so far, but you’re lying if you don’t think it’s possible! Tampa is coming off a bye and has seen their roster return a plethora of starters over the past couple of weeks. Their defense is still excellent, ranking 8th in DVOA, and if they can balance out their offense the way they did in Germany they will be much better going forward. Rashaad White is ready to take the reins over for Lenny. Hopefully, Vita Vea manages to suit up, but even if he doesn’t, the Bucs should shut the Browns’ running game. They have had one of the best run-stopping defenses for a while now. The Bucs’ big two-game winning streak should continue (with a cover) in stormy Cleveland on Sunday. TB -3.5
Coming off a strange week against the Panthers, I’m expecting a big bounce back from the Ravens. They won’t have to cover that big -12.5 number like last week either ;). The Jaguars were an interesting squad coming into the year, but they haven’t performed well in quite some time now having lost six of their last seven. A few of those losses have come to the hands of the Texans, Colts, Giants, and Broncos. Not exactly murderer’s row. On the season they’re 13th in offensive DVOA and 26th on defense. The Ravens on the other hand are 5th on offense and 11th on defense which has seen a steady climb as of late with the addition of Roquan Smith. Over their last three games, they are 6th in EPA/play while allowing the 9th fewest yards per play. BAL -4.0
This total just seems too short even at the updated 43.5 it currently resides at. The Bengals are the eighth-best offense by DVOA and shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball through the air especially if Ja’Marr Chase is able to suit up. The Titans are allowing the 3rd most passing yards per game and Cincinnati is 3rd in pass rate over expectation. With Joe Mixon out, they’ll be forced to air it out more as well and they don’t want any business with the best-run defense by DVOA. Derrick Henry gets a mid-table run defense (16th in DVOA) and the Titans’ passing attack looked solid last week against the Packers with Treylon Burks back in the fold. It’s too bad they didn’t flex this game to the Sunday night game over the Eagles and Packers. CIN/TEN O42.5
I don’t know what else the Seahawks have to do to get more respect in the market. They shocked us all by being this good and the adjustment still isn’t enough. The Raiders are so bad, and they’re only +3.5 on the road in Seattle? I feel like the fair price should be +6. The Geno Smith-led offense has been excellent throughout this year (7th in DVOA, 4th in yards per play) and it should continue to thrive against one of the worst defenses. The Raiders are dead last in DVOA while allowing the 4th most yards per play. A key development towards the Seahawks’ rise has been their defense as of late. Since week 6 they have had the fifth-best defense by EPA’s metrics allowing just an average of 17.4 points per game. This is my favorite side of the week by far, especially with the #TWELVES behind the Hawks. SEA -3.5
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)