Beating the Spread: Week 4 Picks

Week 3 was an overall rough experience for our crew. My 49ers pick was thwarted by an avalanche of turnovers but the 49ers were still the better team – they just couldn’t cover. Sometimes, your instincts are correct but the game just doesn’t quite follow the script you’re looking for. As one of my former coaches used to say, the ball is shaped weird and it takes funny hops when it hits the ground. I took a prop bet before the Colts game for over 70.5 yards on TY Hilton. He looked like he would clear 150 when an injury stopped his week in the second quarter – at 65 yards. So it is.

As we enter Week 4, we have enough real data on these teams to feel at least a little more confident in some of these picks. Let us know in the comments what picks you like best.

The following lines were captured on Tuesday. Betting lines can vary by site and move throughout the week so check yours to make sure that you have similar information.

Week 4 betting lines:

Away Team	Home Team	Line	O/U
Philadelphia	Green Bay	GB -4.5	45
Tennessee	Atlanta	ATL -4	46
New England	Buffalo	NE -7	42.5
Kansas City	Detroit	KC -6	54
Oakland	Indianapolis	IND -7	45
LA Chargers	Miami	LAC -16	45.5
Washington	NY Giants	NYG -3	47
Cleveland	Baltimore	BAL -7	46
Carolina	Houston	HOU -5	46.5
Tampa Bay	LA Rams	LAR -9.5	50.5
Seattle	Arizona	SEA -4.5	47.5
Minnesota	Chicago	CHI -2.5	38
Jacksonville	Denver	DEN -3	38
Dallas	New Orleans	DAL -3	46.5
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	PIT -4	43.5

Staff Picks

Analyst	Jeff Berckes	Erik Smith	Tom Schweitzer
Pick #1	KC -6	KC-DET under 54	BAL -7
Pick #2	IND -7	NYG-WAS under 47	NYG-WAS over 47
Pick #3	LAC -16	NO +3	JAX +3
Pick #4	PHI +4.5	PIT -4	PIT -4
Pick #5	HOU-CAR over 47.5	HOU -5	PIT-CIN over 43.5
2019 Record	8-7	8-7	6-9

 

Analysis:

 

Jeff Berckes: Good teams don’t usually drop two games in a row so I have to ask in Philadelphia a good team? I think their roster talent is outstanding and Carson Wentz is settling back in. Short week and on the road against an undefeated Packers squad and only getting 4.5? It’s enough for me (PHI +4.5) as I think this is the Miles Sanders game. Indianapolis is better than I would have thought minus Luck. Jon Gruden on the road with this Oakland team is starting to reach Miami Dolphins levels – I like Indy to cover a TD spread on the strength of Marlon Mack (IND -7). I keep waiting for a number big enough for me to be bold and take the Dolphins, but it’s not this week. The Chargers have done their usual stellar job of digging themselves a hole but their roster talent is so great that they should comfortably skate in this one (LAC -16). Kansas City is just toying with teams on offense right now, seemingly able to score at will. I’m impressed with Detroit’s resolve to go into Philadelphia and pull out a big victory, but I don’t think they’re in the same class as Kansas City. A late Stafford flurry isn’t enough to get within the TD of Mahomes and company (KC -6). Finally, I like what Kyle Allen brought to the Panthers last week and anytime I can pair up a good offense against a Deshaun Watson offense, I’m looking hard at the over and anything under 50 is appealing (HOU-CAR over 47.5).

 

Erik Smith: I know we all love Danny Dimes, and both Washington and the Giants have burnable secondaries. But giving this game the fourth-highest over/under feels aggressive. This is a Giants team without Saquon Barkley after all. I’ll take WAS at NYG under (47). As a Bengals fan, I’ve seen Andy Dalton in primetime enough to know better. A primetime game in Pittsburgh is what nightmares are made of, so I don’t care who is quarterback, give me PIT -4. The Saints rode their special teams to a win last week in Seattle without Drew Brees. This week they are at home, with a home field crowd that will try to will their team to victory. I’m looking for the Saints to pull out all the stops while trying to steal one from the Cowboys, as a win here would be huge in weathering the stretch without Brees. I don’t know how they will do it, but ill take the points (+3) and the Saints. I know Kyle Allen looked good, and the Panthers have really limited opposing quarterbacks through three games. But the Cardinals lousy defense may be causing Allen to be overrated. Deshaun Watson should be able to figure out a way to win this one handily at home, so HOU (-5) is the pick. Everyone wants to take the over with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a dome. Vegas knows this, and coupled with the Lions likely plan to take the air out of the ball, I’ll pick the under (54).

 

Tom Schweitzer: Cleveland continues to play sloppy and disjointed offense, and now faces arguably the best team they’ve seen all year. The Ravens (-7) have a solid defense and defensive coordinator, so I believe the Browns will continue to struggle. I had the under in the Giants vs Buccaneers game last week, one of my worst picks of the year. Daniel Jones surprised me with how well he played in his debut and the Giants defense surprised me with their inability to cover anyone downfield. Washington is bad on defense too and Case Keenum continues to put points on the board, whether it’s for his team or the opponent. I think we’ll see those trends continue and the Giants and Washington go Over 47. Once again, I’ll take the Jaguars (+3). Denver is falling apart fast and I don’t see them being able to protect Flacco against the Jaguars pass rush. Finally, I have two bets for the Monday night football game. I don’t like either of the defenses involved and the total is relatively low. so I’ll take Over 43.5. I’m also going to bet on the Steelers (-4) to show up at home in a desperate situation. If Mike Tomlin can’t get his players motivated to beat the Bengals, his time in Pittsburgh is all but over.

 

What are your favorite picks of the week? Put in your comments below to play along. We’ll be updating our records all season!

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)