Welcome back to another week of Beating the Spread. As always, I’m Jake Roy and I’m joined by Brennan Rampe and Tyler Gentile. We’ll be here every Friday throughout the season, posting our picks along with some analysis.
Almost halfway through the NFL season and still going strong. Teams have started to round into form and hit their stride, although there are still plenty of middle-of-the-road teams trying to find an identity. That’s the beauty of the NFL though, any given Sunday. Tyler continues to lead the pack, going three and two every week so far. Brennan has got back to 50%, while I bring up the rear at three games under. We’re still waiting for our first 5-0 performance, maybe this is the week.
You can play along in the comments or find us on Twitter (@Jake3Roy, @808Paperboi, @phdinnfl). Assuming -110 odds we need about 53% to break even, let’s see if we can hit that magic number for the season and come out with some profit. So, without further ado, here are the lines we’ll use for Week 8!
| Away | Home | Line | O/U |
| Patriots | Jets | Patriots -1.5 | 40.5 |
| Broncos | Jaguars | Jaguars -2.5 | 39.5 |
| Cardinals | Vikings | Vikings -3.5 | 49.0 |
| Dolphins | Lions | Dolphins -3.5 | 51.5 |
| Bears | Cowboys | Cowboys -9.5 | 42.5 |
| Raiders | Saints | Raiders -2.0 | 49.5 |
| Panthers | Falcons | Falcons -4.5 | 42.0 |
| Steelers | Eagles | Eagles -10.5 | 43.0 |
| Titans | Texans | Titans -2.0 | 40.5 |
| Giants | Seahawks | Seahawks -3.0 | 45.0 |
| 49ers | Rams | 49ers -1.5 | 43.5 |
| Commanders | Colts | Colts -2.5 | 40.0 |
| Packers | Bills | Bills -10.5 | 47.5 |
| Bengals | Browns | Bengals -3.5 | 47.0 |
| Jake Roy (@Jake3Roy) | Brennan Rampe (@Phdinnfl) | Tyler Gentile (@808PaperBoi) | |
| Pick #1 | Patriots/Jets under 40.5 | Eagles -10.5 | Broncos/Jaguars under 39.5 |
| Pick #2 | Patriots -1.5 | Cardinals/Vikings over 49.0 | Patriots -1.5 |
| Pick #3 | Dolphins -3.5 | Titans -2.0 | Patriots/Jets under 40.5 |
| Pick #4 | Panthers +4.5 | 49ers -1.5 | 49ers -1.5 |
| Pick #5 | 49ers/Rams under 43.5 | Bengals -3.5 | 49ers/Rams under 43.5 |
| Record | 16-19 | 17-17-1 | 21-14 |
Analysis
Jake Roy
On Monday night, the Patriots made a complete mockery of the game of football, surrendering 33 points to the Chicago Bears. As a Patriots fan, I know that they’ll probably bounce back, win the game, and give me just enough hope to ride it out until the end of the season. The Jets are a great story, starting 5-2, playing great defense, and doing just enough on offense to win games. I still refuse to believe they’re actually good. The defense is legit, I’ll hand them that. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner are stars and will remain stars for a long time. The offense is not legit. They just lost Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season and weren’t scoring a ton of points as is. I won’t pick the Patriots to win yet again, but I will bet on this one to be low scoring. The Jets’ will likely be able to get pressure with four and give New England a hard time, while the Patriots should be able to contain the Jets. I see another low-scoring affair in the Meadowlands on Sunday. NE/NYJ U40.5
I can’t not do it. Give me the Patriots as well. Road dog in the division might be a bad idea, but it’s the perfect spot for Bill Belichick to bounce back. There was quarterback controversy, an embarrassing home loss, and plenty of clowning of the Patriots on Twitter. But just when I think I’m out, they pull me back in. Every. Single. Time. I like the idea of buying this down to lose the hook and give yourself the push potential, but I can’t buy points here. Pats in a tight one. NE -1.5
Dan Campbell and the Lions play host to the Dolphins this week. I’m sure there’s nothing Campbell would like to do more than stuffing that geek who calls the plays for Miami in a locker. Unfortunately for him, they’re on opposite sidelines with roughly 53 yards between them. Even worse, Mike McDaniel runs circles around him in terms of football IQ. Nobody in the NFL plays more man-to-man coverage than the Lions. Nobody in the NFL allows more points than the Lions yet for some reason, they’ve refused to change the scheme. It shouldn’t particularly matter what scheme they run, with the weapons they have and the coaching advantage, it should a rout in Detroit. MIA -3.5
I don’t think either of these two teams are especially exciting, explosive, or entertaining. The Falcons run the ball almost every play because they don’t trust their quarterback. The Panthers have already benched their quarterback and traded away their best offensive weapon. These teams are made for each other, destined to punt the ball back and forth until the end of time. Give me the points. CAR +4.5
The Rams and 49ers are both hard to get a read on. The Rams are reigning Super Bowl champs, but haven’t looked nearly as strong as they did last year, with the offensive line being an area of concern. The 49ers have a quarterback problem, although Jimmy Garroppolo has performed serviceably in the past, it’s easy to see why the team wanted to go with Trey Lance. Still, the defenses have been strong, allowing a combined 40 points per game. Both head coaches are familiar with each other, squaring off twice a year since 2017. It’s the second time they’ve seen each other this season, with the last matchup featuring just 33 points. Expect another low-scoring game this time around. SF/LAR U43.5
Brennan Rampe
The Eagles are the only undefeated team left in the league and they just got even better. Philadelphia acquired defensive end Robert Quinn from the Bears for a fourth-round pick, which improves a defensive line that was already excellent. In addition, they are back from their bye week. Their opponent, the Steelers, are struggling right now. The offense is lackluster under rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett but that was to be expected. The defense has been playing better the last two weeks without T.J. Watt but they still haven’t had a lot of sacks or takeaways. The Eagles do not have many weaknesses on their roster, and they look like the best team in the NFC by far. Double-digit spreads are tough, but I’m confident about this one. I’ll be surprised if the Eagles don’t win the NFC. Inside the Numbers: The Eagles are 5-0-1 as a home favorite against the spread under Nick Sirianni. PHI -10.5
Tyler Gentile
Alright, this is getting out of hand. Seven straight weeks of 3-2.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’m taking another under in a Broncos, I mean Donkeys, game. Denver is an under bettor’s dream come true. Miserable on offense, and incredible on defense. Opponents have the fewest yards per play against them and they have the t7th fewest yards per play on the other side of the ball. They are also on the polar opposite side when it comes to red zone scoring conversion rate. Dead last on offense (23.5%) and first on defense (25%). Can you imagine what it is like during practice for this team? London is going to love this game with all the kicking and punting to be done. As for the Jaguars, they’re pretty much middle of the pack in most categories so don’t worry about them. The under is 6-1 in Broncos games and I don’t see that stopping despite this measly total. DEN/JAX U39.5
Look, I get it. Unders aren’t fun, but you know what is fun? Cashing bets. Am I right or am I right? Scoring is significantly down this year resulting in a 64-44 (59%) record for the under through week seven. The average total score per game is ~43 which is the lowest since 2010.
The Jets are sort of Broncos lite allowing the fifth-fewest yards per play while accumulating the t7th fewest yards per play on offense. Their best playmaker, Breece Hall, is done for the year. Their starting right guard, Alijah Vera-Tucker, is as well, and it’s hard to think the Patriots’ defense will fold as hard as they did on MNF. A bounce-back is in store for Bill and co. facing Zach Wilson who is just flat out BAD. New England owns the Jets having won 12 (!) straight games against them since 2016.
Writing that makes me want to take them -1.5, so that I will. This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot here. The Jets are on a “heater” with four straight wins, but look a little closer at their wins. Three of the four teams they faced during this win streak had a backup or rookie QB starting. THEY’RE FRAUDS! It definitely doesn’t feel great backing the Pats after that showing on MNF, but they dismantled the Lions and Browns the two weeks prior. I think they win in a rock fight of a game. 20-17 sort of win. NE -1.5, NE/NYJ U40.5
Another under! Would ya look at that! Including last year’s playoff matchup, these division rivals have met on six different occasions since 2020. Five of the six matchups have stayed under this total averaging ~41 points per game and it’s hard to see this under trend ending. Despite getting torched by the Chiefs (every team does), the Niners have arguably the best defense in the league when healthy. Led by Nick Bosa they’re generating the second-best pressure rate and permitting the 5th fewest yards per play. It’ll be nice to get a change of pace going from playing Chiefs to this Rams offense.
The Rams’ offensive line has been the bane to their offensive existence this year. They have the fifth-worst sack percentage, are 28th in run block win rate, and 23rd in pass block win rate. Matthew Stafford has always been miserable under pressure, and that has really shined through this year with the offense ranking 25th in DVOA. They put up nine points in San Francisco a couple of weeks ago and are 28th in yards per play.
At least the Rams have a solid defense. If it weren’t for that pick-six Stafford threw, they would’ve held SF to 18 points in that matchup in week four. They rank 8th in defensive DVOA on the year, have the 2nd best red zone defense, and the under is 5-1 in their games this year. San Francisco is 5-2 to the under as well. SF has a formidable enough offense, and their new shiny toy, Christian McCaffrey, should play a full complement of snaps this week. Also, the Niners have won seven of their last eight games vs the Rams since 2019. SF -1.5, SF/LAR U43.5
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)