In my first article with QB List, I’m excited to dive into some early-season matchups to consider when drafting your teams over the next few weeks. While team matchups shouldn’t be your most important factor when drafting, it is helpful information and can be the deciding factor when choosing between two players. In this article, we have six passing offenses whose matchups may be favorable or matchups you’d like to try to avoid. My findings are based on a couple of different factors: last year’s performances against offensive positions on a per-game basis and 2024 PFF NFL secondary rankings. This should give some extra insight to help you win your matchups in the early portion of the season.
Favorable Matchups
Washington Commanders
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| @ TB | NYG | @ CIN | @ ARI |
The new-look Washington Commanders have one of the most favorable early schedules for an NFL passing attack. They will be on the road for three of their first four games, but their opponents should give them chances to mesh this new-look offense. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels should be able to make some noise against some easier opponents. He’ll face the Buccaneers and Cardinals, both of which were bottom ten in fantasy points per game to quarterbacks per Pro Football Reference. He should be able to provide a rushing floor with two teams that struggled to stop mobile quarterbacks last year.
Since Jayden Daniels should get off to a fast start, his WR1, Terry McLaurin, should also benefit from the early-season schedule and become a more attractive option in drafts. All of his first four opponents were in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per game to receivers last season. None of these teams have a lockdown cornerback who can stop McLaurin from dominating in the early portion of the season. According to FantasyPros ADP, McLaurin is a steal at 68 overall. A veteran receiver with WR1 upside, “Scary Terry” can start his 2024 campaign off hot in September.
The easier schedule gives some hope that former first-round pick Jahan Dotson can rebound in 2024. The hope is that Dotson can get more work in the slot and beat these early-schedule nickelbacks. While the community is raving about Ben Sinnott (as they should!), Zach Ertz should be considered a deep sleeper to start the season. Those who play in deeper leagues could get Ertz late in drafts, who could provide solid fantasy production to start the season. Ertz’s matchups are against some teams who were in the bottom 10 in fantasy points per game to tight ends per PFF.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| WAS | @ DET | DEN | PHI |
The Bucs passing game should get off to a fine start in fantasy football. They get three home games, and their one away game is in a dome in Detroit. This brings me to Baker Mayfield as a great sleeper to start the season. Mayfield is returning to the Bucs with the same weapons that helped him be a QB1 last season. Per Pro Football Reference, three of Mayfield’s first four matchups come against teams ranked in the bottom ten in fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. The Commanders secondary was horrific last season and didn’t improve much over the offseason. Detroit and Philadelphia are still figuring out their secondaries, as they have a mix of young and old players who are untested. Denver has Patrick Surtain II but lost key pieces like Justin Simmons in their secondary. While Mayfield isn’t being drafted in most single-QB leagues, his value in Superflex leagues makes him a sleeper you should draft.
While Mayfield should receive a boost, so too will his primary pass-catchers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have the easiest strength of schedule for wideouts in the season’s first four games. Despite his age, Evans looks in prime form after an elite 2023 season where he finished with over 1200 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’ll get solid matchups with teams who lack an elite cornerback to cover his size. The only one who may give some issues is Patrick Surtain II, but Evans has elite touchdown upside and could help you get a few wins to start the season. His Fantasy Pros ADP of 30 provides excellent value for an owner looking for a potential borderline WR1 for fantasy.
Godwin’s return to the slot is going to boost his fantasy stock in 2024. Godwin should go up against some rookie nickelbacks in 2024 such as Mike Sainristil and Quinyon Mitchell. Godwin was already rising, but his schedule makes him a great option in the sixth/seventh round of the draft if you choose to wait on your WR2. Finally, Jalen McMillian is a name that you should remember late in drafts. The rookie had a great training camp and is a great option for your last roster spot to see if he can shine in the first four weeks.
Detroit Lions
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| LAR | TB | @ ARI | SEA |
The Detroit Lions also have an easy first month of the season. They will start their season with three of their first four games at home, while their one road matchup against the Cardinals features one of the worst defenses heading to the 2024 season. Jared Goff should get off to a wonderful start for fantasy owners, especially if they lean off the run with Jahmyr Gibbs banged up. He’ll get to play two NFC West teams, the Rams and Cardinals, who were both in the bottom eight in fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Goff was solid in 2023, but playing against weak secondaries could help boost his touchdown numbers that he lacked last year. The only one that may give Goff trouble is Seattle, but they allowed high passing yards per Pro Football Reference. Goff is the perfect round 10 or later quarterback if your strategy is to wait on the quarterback in drafts this year.
If Goff will have an uptick in production, then it should benefit Amon-Ra St. Brown in fantasy. St. Brown was one of football’s most consistent fantasy options last year, with double-digit fantasy points in all but one game. St. Brown has a case to be a top-five pick in the draft this August. That also leads to the WR2 in Jameson Williams. Williams is looking for a third-year breakout in 2024. He will go up against the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Cardinals, all of which ranked in the bottom 10 in air yards allowed per Statmuse. Williams is going as ADP 115 currently, and he is an intriguing upside receiver to take in double-digit rounds. If Williams can live up to his draft capital, it will be in part to having such a solid schedule to begin the season.
While the Lions receivers have a solid matchup, Sam LaPorta should be able to continue where he left off in 2023. LaPorta has the third easiest schedule among tight ends over the season’s first month. He’ll start off facing two teams in the bottom eight in fantasy points per game to tight ends. He’ll play a Cardinals team who is still figuring out their defense. Seattle was average against tight ends but allowed high yardage per game. LaPorta should command second or third targets in the offense. While many agree that LaPorta going in the early third round is high, he should be able to show up against some below-average defenses in September.
Others to Consider
Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. have excellent matchups to start the season. After a potential shootout with the Bills, they get the Rams, Lions, and Cardinals after that. If you are one of those drafters who like taking quarterbacks early, look toward Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and Jalen Hurts, whose matchups are favorable in September. Regarding receiving, the 49ers duo (if Brandon Aiyuk stays) and the Texans have great matchups in the first four games. While many are hesitant to draft these players, their early-season schedules show the risk may be worth the reward. Finally, while Dallas Goedert is a tight end I wouldn’t normally recommend, he has the best schedule for tight ends to start the season.
Poor Matchups
Baltimore Ravens
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| @KC | LV | @DAL | BUF |
The Ravens have the worst schedule to begin the season for fantasy. Lamar Jackson gets three opponents in the first four weeks who were top eight in stopping fantasy quarterbacks on a per-game basis. While Jackson improved his passing numbers in 2023, it may be tough for him to start the year. I won’t be overly concerned with Jackson since his biggest strength comes in the run game. It’s important to know that the Chiefs allowed the tenth most total rushing yards to quarterbacks last year. Everyone else on the schedule did allow fewer rushing yards in 2023. Jackson will be in a high-scoring situation, so a strong defense should not matter to Jackson’s fantasy output, and he can be drafted with confidence as a QB1 in drafts.
The pass catchers are where things don’t remain positive. Zay Flowers is Baltimore’s top receiver option, but his schedule is rough. It will depend on whether he sees more or less slot work in 2024. He’ll play the Chiefs, and despite losing L’Jarius Sneed, they have an elite secondary who could shut down Flowers. The Raiders may be the easiest matchup for Flowers, but we saw the Raiders defense step up at the end of last season. The Cowboys have two boom/bust cornerbacks who only allowed an average of 18.2 fantasy points to receivers in 2023 per Pro Football Reference. Buffalo’s secondary has been a group that is keeping their defense afloat in 2024, so expect Flowers to struggle a bit. It’s also known that when Andrews was on the field, Flowers was only a WR3 in points per game.
Mark Andrews‘ matchups to start the season aren’t any better. Andrews was solid last season but had his fair share of poor outings before getting injured. Andrews has been Jackson’s favorite target, so there is some hope. An interesting fact is that Andrews has never played the Cowboys in his career, and they have a great linebacker group who can keep up with him. Andrews has also played the other three teams nine times with a combined stat line of 248 yards and zero touchdowns. Andrews may struggle to start the season, but I have confidence he will turn it around after September.
Las Vegas Raiders
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| @ LAC | @ BAL | CAR | CLE |
The Raiders are also looking at a rough start to their season under Antonio Pierce. They start off on the road against two excellent defenses in 2024. While Carolina wasn’t an elite defense, they allowed more rushing, which hurt the passing game for fantasy. Cleveland has one of the top two defenses in football. For recently named starting quarterback Gardner Minshew, things are not looking upright. Since the Raiders defense has shown improvement, these could be lower-scoring games, which doesn’t bode well for the passing game. Minshew struggled last season with only three games over 20 fantasy points. While his weapons in Las Vegas are improved, it doesn’t stop Minshew from struggling against a tough defense. At the same time, many aren’t likely drafting Minshew unless, as your third quarterback in Superflex leagues, he is better left on the bench until bye weeks.
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will have their work cut out for them. They start with an easier matchup against the Chargers, but it could be a trap game if the Chargers defense is healthy in week one. They have a solid secondary, but they were all hurt last year. Baltimore and Cleveland still have elite secondaries that will make things challenging for the receiver duo. Carolina may be the matchup where things could go right for them, as they don’t have elite options unless Jaycee Horn is 100% by the start of the season. Adams’ target share should keep him in the good grace of fantasy managers. Meyers, who I like as a sleeper, may need to be efficient with his targets if he is going to make some noise. I still wouldn’t shy away from taking Adams in the late second round.
Rookie sensation Brock Bowers also has some tough tests early in the season. Baltimore and Cleveland were elite defenses who shut down tight ends last year. It may be a learning curve for Bowers, who could split more time than expected with Michael Mayer in the offense. Bowers’ best chance for early-season success is Carolina, whose linebacker unit is not very strong heading into 2024. While Bowers is likely a TE2 for fantasy managers, I’d look in another direction and wait for frustrated managers to drop him after September.
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
| @ MIA | CLE | @ BUF | @ HOU |
The hope for the Jaguars to rebound in fantasy to start the season will be tough. They are on the road in three of the first four games and play four defenses that have elite secondaries heading into 2024. Trevor Lawrence struggles on the road, with 24 interceptions in 25 career away games. They play two teams in the top seven in interceptions and two other teams in the top 16 in 2023. Lawrence will have new deep threats but he may find himself causing turnovers too early in the season. I would expect Lawrence to throw short, which could limit his fantasy value in September. He doesn’t look like a great option in drafts with an ADP of 120 if he struggles to start the year.
As Lawrence is likely to struggle in the first month, the same could also be said for his receivers. They will face Jalen Ramsey, Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, Denzel Ward, and Devin Stingley Jr. to start the season. Moving to the slot may save Christian Kirk a bit since most of those cornerbacks don’t shadow one player. While Kirk should be in for decent production, you may face challenges if you take chances on Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. against these corners. The rookie is being drafted in the top ten rounds so he could be bad value if he struggle out of the gate against these tough secondaries. Davis and Thomas Jr. may not be worth drafting and are better off waiting to pick up off of waivers after the first month.
Evan Engram also doesn’t have an enticing schedule to begin the season. If the team is going to stop the Jaguars from going deep, then Engram should remain fine for fantasy. Engram was so elite the last year since he took many dump-off catches. He was peppered with targets, allowing him to see a lot of short receptions, so he does carry more upside in PPR leagues. Christian Kirk returning to the slot may lower his target share, but don’t let that stop you. The Browns and Ravens were elite last year, but Miami and Houston should still give hope for the Jaguars tight end to produce as a TE1. Engram is going as player 74 overall and he should be able to provide that value despite a rough start.
Others to Consider Avoiding
There are a few other players with difficult early-season schedules to keep in mind. Some fantasy owners are already concerned about Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert‘s prospects this year, and September matchups against tough secondaries won’t help their cases. Both are later-round picks that you may regret in the early portion of the season. Two critical players with hard matchups to start the year are CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. Don’t be surprised if you see lower-than-expected point totals to begin their seasons. At the tight end position, Jake Ferguson, who is a mid-round drafted player, may cause some headaches to start the season. He plays teams who were very excellent against tight ends on a points-per-game basis. While this shouldn’t stop you from drafting these players, you may want to slightly temper your expectations for them in the month of September.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)