When we’re playing fantasy football it can often seem like the running back position can be among the most difficult positions to project. Injuries and coaching decisions can take our opinion of a player from a sure thing to a major question mark. Bijan Robinson can be touted as the best RB prospect in years and be drafted in the top eight in the NFL draft, but if Arthur Smith decides not to play him on 50% of offensive snaps we will end up with a sad outlook for the season. Volume and situation significantly affect RB fantasy production more than any other position. With the draft season upon us, let’s break down some of the most advantageous matchups presented to running-game players over the first month of the season.
To help identify matchup strength I used a combination of stats from the 2023 NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted both fantasy points allowed to the RB position and rushing yards allowed, using FantasyData. For both lists, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s finish in 2023 vs. the rest of the NFL with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Arizona allowed the most rushing yards last year: value 1, Chicago allowed the least: value 32) I then used PFF’s rush defense grades as my third data set, assigning numerical values in the same manner. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall run defense score to each team. Those run defense scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the first four games of the season, which served as a foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in.
It’s Lonely at the Top
Washington Commanders: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NY Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals
The Commanders have such an amazing running game matchup schedule to start the season that they’re being placed in a tier of their own. Despite opening against a stout rush defense in Tampa Bay, the following three matchups provide a ton of upside coming against league-worst run defenses from 2023. Expect hot starts not just for RBs Brian Robinson Jr. or Austin Ekeler, but also for second-overall draft selection Jayden Daniels who enters the league already considered a top rushing threat at the QB position. All three matchups in weeks two through four are against opposing defenses that landed in the bottom eight in my run defense scores created for this article, providing the opportunity fantasy managers need to be successful. The Giants and Cardinals provide especially savory matchups, with both teams expected to be amongst the league’s worst defenses in 2024. When comparing the team’s matchup grades, the Commanders stuck out with a grade of almost four points easier than the second-place team.
The Best of the Rest
Pittsburgh Steelers: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, LA Chargers, Indianapolis Colts
When looking at the Steeler’s rush game outlook to start the season the parallels with the Commanders’ offense are easy to see. The Steelers also face their most difficult opponent in week one, coming up against the Falcons and new head coach Raheem Morris. Last season Atlanta quietly had one of the most effective run-stopping defensive units in the league, being graded second best by PFF. After the Falcons, Pittsburgh gets three weeks against some of the worst run defenses from 2023. Expect Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to take full advantage of the weak opponents on their way to strong starts to their fantasy campaigns. Also worth noting, Justin Fields may not be the team’s week one starter at QB but head coach Mike Tomlin hinted recently at Fields potentially being used in specific run packages to begin the season. A healthy mix of option plays with Fields can be an exciting way for the Steelers to take advantage of these easy matchups.
Detroit Lions: LA Rams, Tampa Bay Buccanneers, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy managers already expect the Lions to have one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL this year. The two-headed beast of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs is looking to build off a strong 2023 that saw the duo combine for almost 2000 yards and 23 TDs on the ground. Anchoring the entire offense is RT Penei Sewell and PFF’s #1 ranked offensive line entering the 2024 season. While the first two weeks are difficult matchups, the Lions should still have the talent and scheme to perform well for fantasy managers. Weeks three and four, however, present matchups against the #1 and #3 worst run defenses in 2023 per my aggregate score. The Seahawks and Cardinals struggle immensely against the run giving up over 130 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground per game in 2023, so Detroit’s top-rated rushing game should do more than enough to perform for your fantasy teams.
Miami Dolphins: Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans
Another team that managers expect a great rushing attack from is the Miami Dolphins. Without proper eye protection on a sunny day, you could easily mistake the Dolphins’ skill position players for a group of Olympic sprinters. That extends deep into their rushing attack, led by veteran Raheem Mostert and second-year sensation Devon Achane. Both are among the fastest players not just at the running back position, but in the entire NFL. You’re probably already starting both in week one if you’ve drafted them, but their fourth ranked matchup score should have you feeling even more confident.
New England Patriots: Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers
Despite the horrendous projections for the Patriots’ offense in 2024, the opening schedule may be a light in the dark for RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Behind one of if not the worst offensive lines in the NFL, it’s difficult to project success onto the Patriots’ run game. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has a history of run-heavy offensive schemes with the Cleveland Browns which is projected to carry over this year on the Patriots. While the matchups against the Bengals and 49ers could see the Patriots trailing early and being forced to throw the ball, the Seahawks and Jets present close games where a run-heavy focus can drive Rhamondre and Gibson into fantasy relevance. Also worth touching on is TE Hunter Henry, who is a capable blocker and could see more time utilized as such. A reduction in routes run could negatively swing his fantasy value in deeper leagues.
Denver Broncos: Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets
Anytime you can open the season against the porous Seahawks defense you know your running game is going to get off to a hot start. The Seahawks were amongst the worst teams against the run in almost every metric you can find, so be ready for Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin to start the season well. Javonte appears poised to lead the team in carries but Jaleel’s explosiveness is apparent every time he touches the ball, making both a threat to put up solid fantasy numbers. After the Seahawks come two mid-level matchups against the Steelers and Bucs. If rookie QB Bo Nix can command the offense the way he did in the preseason, the Broncos have a chance to make those games competitive and still provide above-average fantasy performances.
Above Average but Not Quite
Dallas Cowboys: Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants
The Dallas Cowboys running game is a difficult one to project. While the offensive line is still ranked top 10 by PFF, the players expected to shoulder the workload are question marks in themselves. 2018’s dream RB tandem of Ezekiel Elliot and Dalvin Cook is joined by fifth-year backup Rico Dowdle to create a backfield that frankly just isn’t going to scare opposing defenses. Despite the concerns about talent, the opening schedule should be fruitful for the Cowboys with matchups against bottom-half teams in the Browns and Saints. They cap the opening month off against the Giants, a team projected by Vegas and NFL analysts alike to be amongst the league’s worst. As of right now, Dalvin Cook has concerns about even making the game-day roster so it’s best to focus on Zeke and Rico if you want to take advantage of these matchups.
Cincinnati Bengals: New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers
I believe the Bengals are amongst the teams best poised to exceed their spot in these rankings. While their week one opponent the Patriots finished 2023 as a top-notch run defense, the offensive woes expected of the Pats could lead to the Bengals building a quick lead and running out the clock. Weeks three and four provide two weeks of fantastic matchups for RBs Zach Moss and Chase Brown who are expected to split carries to start the season. The Commanders and Panthers both ranked bottom 10 in my 2023 run defense aggregate score and both project to roll out some of the worst offenses in the league. With the Bengals in a position to dominate three of the first four teams they play in 2024, the upside for the running game is obvious.
Carolina Panthers: New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals
I hope you love yourself some Chuba Hubbard stonks because the combination of the opening schedule and rookie RB Johnathan Brooks landing on PIP to start the year is providing Hubbard the opportunity to come out of the gate strong. With the toughest matchups coming against the Saints and Raiders, both teams with major question marks on offense, the Panthers are going to have an opportunity to show they’ve taken a step on the offensive side of the ball. If new head coach Dave Canales can improve the 2023 league-worst offense this year, the Panthers’ running game players may be the biggest beneficiaries.
Cleveland Browns: Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders
To start the year, the Browns’ matchup score is a perfect example of how just one good matchup can swing things in your favor. While the Browns have a terrific offensive line, currently ranked #4 by PFF entering the season, opening the season against tough defensive fronts like the Cowboys doesn’t bode well for Jerome Ford who looks to open the season while Nick Chubb is out on IR. Week three brings the Giants and their abysmal defense, and in week 4 the Browns meet the Raiders and starting QB Gardner Minshew. Both games offer a great opportunity for the Browns to build a commanding lead early before relying on the running game to close those games out.
The Bottom of the Barrel
Seattle Seahawks: Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions
If the opening schedule for the Seahawks run game worries you, that probably makes sense. Opening the season against Denver is the lone bright spot for the Seattle rushing attack’s start to the season. Denver proved their vulnerability last season by allowing the Dolphins to score 70 points in one game. After Denver, three straight matchups against the toughest run defenses from 2023 can foster worry in the minds of fantasy managers as it pertains to Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Walker’s explosive upside may help keep him relevant, but this opening schedule may point to a cheap week four trade target more than someone to draft.
San Fransisco 49ers: New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots
Let’s be honest here, it doesn’t matter how bad the matchups are, you’re starting Christian McCaffrey if you’ve got him. Jordan Mason is now the de facto backup with Eli Mitchell landing on season-ending IR, and he serves as strictly a situational player who will not be relevant for fantasy football barring an injury to CMC. The player most impacted by the team’s opening schedule is probably TE George Kittle. Kittle has proven himself a top threat when catching the ball, but most overlook how terrific of a blocker he is. With Trent Williams holding out, it’s easy to see a situation where Kittle is used as an in-line blocker more to begin the year thus limiting his fantasy upside.
New Orleans Saints: Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Philidelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are in a tough spot to begin the 2024 season. To start things off, they have the worst offensive line entering the season according to PFF. Veterans Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams will begin the season handling the bulk of New Orleans’ carries. Both players have had a sharp decline in rushing efficiency over the last couple of years, and an offensive line that is actively trying to let defenders through isn’t going to do them any favors. The enigma that is Taysom Hill might be on your radar if you’re in deeper leagues, but this opening schedule doesn’t appear primed to allow quality fantasy performances from anyone in this offense.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@justparadesigns on Twitter/X)