Booms and Busts for Fantasy Football in 2025

Which players will soar and which will fall flat?

Geoff Ulrich
Draft Prep 17 Hours Ago

Good drafting in Fantasy Football is more than just finding a bunch of players who produce average scores each week. It’s about targeting those true upside players who break the scoring metrics at their position or outperform their ADP by such a wide margin that they provide your squad with an almost impossible advantage. 

Conversely, it’s also about avoiding those huge landmines that sink your team, like early-round RB busts, or those mid-round, flashy QBs that just don’t work out. 

That’s why I’m going over my favorite booms to target and busts to avoid this week before we get too close to the start of the season. 

For most positions, I’ll give you some early and mid/late targets to work with, so that, depending on how your draft breaks (or what position you’re drafting at), you’ll have options and opinions on more than just the first few rounds. After all, while we’d all like to grab those elite RBs or QBs early, it’s not always going to work out that way. 

 

Quarterbacks

 

Boom: Jayden Daniels

I advocated for Daniels last season, and I’m fine planting the flag here again. His first year was punctuated by him finishing as QB5 in most leagues and gaining the second-most rushing yards in the league among QBs with 891. With Daniels coming in with no injury concerns in his second season and a year wiser, there is every reason to believe the Commanders will set loose his sprinter’s speed more often and allow him to breach the 1000-yard mark. 

With that would likely come more rushing TDs (like the one he scored on his only drive in preseason), and allow him to close the gap between Josh Allen (12) and Jalen Hurts (14) in that department. 

While the Terry McLaurin issue lingers, the Commanders have showcased their new toy already, a very motivated Deebo Samuel, whose after-the-catch ability on short passes should help Daniels’ overall efficiency (not that he needed help). 

While his valuation isn’t cheap (he’s QB3 off the boards in most drafts), I see him having just as good a shot at being the overall QB1 this season as Jackson and Allen, making him the high-end QB I’m going out to get in drafts whenever possible. 

 

Boom: Michael Penix Jr.

The Falcons have invested some capital into their defense this offseason, but it’s still going to be a work in progress. Most sites, including PFF, have them projected to be in the bottom third of the league. 

It should lead to heavier pass volume this year for Penix, who will be working with an elite pass-catching RB in Bijan Robinson, a plus athlete at TE in Kyle Pitts, and, of course, an elite WR in Drake London. 

While the small snippet of Penix we saw from last season was solid (8.2 yards per attempt for 312 yards in his last game), his having an entire offseason of prep as the starter should allow him to make a big jump and unlock more of the upside available from his incredible arm talent. 

 

Bust: Drake Maye

Maye is a bit of a polarizing figure. He’s gotten quite a bit of heat this offseason in fantasy circles, and it’s caused his ADP to rise to where he’s now going as QB13 on Underdog (best ball) in front of Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, and Justin Herbert. While the rushing upside is nice with Maye, the rest of the package is what worries me. 

He’s going to be working with an aging Stefon Diggs (who had an “interesting” offseason) as his WR1, and a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Vrabel. Maye’s already had turnover issues this preseason, and the Patriots’ O-Line (which was terrible last year) has been shaky again. 

Maye’s rushing upside could save him (and Maye drafters), but I’m not sure what the overall upside is for the second-year QB, especially at his current valuation. He only averaged 6.7 ypa last season, and without a massive upgrade at WR, he’s not someone I’m looking at to make a huge jump this year. 

 

Running Backs

 

Boom: TreyVeyon Henderson

Henderson has looked all kinds of explosive in the preseason. 

He’s a great pass-catcher, whose ability in that area should be relied upon heavily, given that the Patriots are projecting to have trouble running the ball behind a terrible O-Line again, and lack explosive playmakers at receiver.

The Patriots still have Rhamondre Stevenson, who projects to split work, but he’s more of an in-between-the-tackles runner who looked terrible behind this weak O-Line last year, and also has experienced fumbling issues at various points in his career, which could limit his red zone work. Either way, Henderson isn’t a player they are going to be able to keep off the field much. His 4.43 40 makes him one of their fastest players on offense, and he was a big play machine as a receiver in college, averaging 11.1 yards per reception over his four seasons. 

His ADP has been on the move big time since the preseason opened (and he ran back a kickoff for a TD on his first touch and looked great in Week 2), but, for redrafts, he may still be flying a little under the radar, making him a player to target in the third round and beyond. 

 

Boom: Jordan Mason

If you miss out on nabbing a solid RB early or are simply honed in on a zero RB strategy, Mason is a name I would want to target. 

Not only does he have a big size advantage over Aaron Jones (which should give him a great shot at handling most goal-line carries), but, at this stage in their respective careers, Mason might also be the Vikings’ most explosive back. Mason’s 9 rushes of 20 yards or more were tied for fifth in the league last year (despite him playing just 12 games), and he’ll again be running behind one of the best O-Lines in football in Minnesota (PFF has them 7th).

To me, that makes him a far better upside play than other names like Jaylen Warren or Tyrone Tracy Jr. in his range, who project to be on far worse offenses (and playing behind far worse offensive lines).

 

Bust: Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard is already going as RB18 and, to be frank, I’m not sure I see much upside beyond this for him. He’s not a great pass-catching back, and the Panthers brought in Rico Dowdle, a former 1,000-yard rusher himself, to handle passing duties. Hubbard is the favorite for early down work and goal line carries, but this could easily devolve into a split fast. 

Add in the fact that this is the Panthers we are talking about, who were 23rd in EPA per play on offense in 2024, and I’m not sure if Hubbard’s current valuation is warranted.

I don’t think Hubbard is necessarily severely overpriced, but I do think his downside (potential to underperform his ADP) is bigger than his upside (potential to outperform), which places him firmly in the bust pile for me. 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Boom: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

What about a wide receiver who was top 15 in targets last year? What if that same receiver was on a team that got rid of their other top two WRs, who combined for 182 targets in 2024? Is that something I could interest you in?

I’m not sure why people seem so hesitant to be in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season, but I see a very condensed target share in this Klint Kubiak offense, which will likely be focused on moving JSN around as much as possible and utilizing his full skillset. 

JSN leading the league in targets in year three is not out of the question, and the potential for a monster year is certainly there if Sam Darnold operates with anywhere close to the same kind of efficiency he did in Minnesota. 

 

Boom: Rashid Shaheed

Is it even possible to write a boom/bust article without mentioning Rashid Shaheed? The Saints WR is the epitome of a boom or bust option for fantasy again this season as he offers enticing upside given his low valuation and elite speed, while also being a potentially large liability given his injury history and the fact that he’ll be attached to a poor offense. 

Still, the boom side here is where you want to focus. Yes, New Orleans will likely struggle to win games, but for fantasy purposes, big plays in ugly blowouts count just the same as big plays in close games. Plus, you have the fact that Chris Olave is still just one concussion away from a possible long IR stint, which could push Shaheed’s target share up towards the elites at his position. 

Shaheed was already trending towards a big year in 2024, which may have seen him outscore incumbent number one Chris Olave, and he has arrived at camp looking bigger and stronger, while taking part in more short and intermediate routes than he has in the past, in Kellen Moore’s offense. 

With the Saints looking likely to start the aggressive Spencer Rattler, the upside with Shaheed is again very worth betting on. 

Bust: Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. is going directly in front of JSN in most drafts, and I don’t think that it’s warranted at all. 

The second-year WR could make a leap in his second season, but he’ll be in the same Drew Petzing offense as he was last year, the one that made getting the ball to their elite pass-catching TE, Trey McBride (147 targets in 16 games), over Harrison (116 targets in 17 games), a priority.

Arizona has also been top-12 in rush rate the last two seasons under Petzing, so it seems unlikely this offense can support a top-5 fantasy TE and a top-10 fantasy WR at the same time. 

I’d rather bet on McBride and see Harrison as a potential bust candidate once again.

 

Tight Ends

 

Boom: Evan Engram

Engram is a unique player, and he seems to finally be linked up with a coach who knows that. His one target in preseason had Sean Payton sweep him across the formation on play action, where he easily beat coverage and turned the ball upfield for a 50+ yard gain. 

It was against the Cardinals’ backups, so let’s not get too excited, but I expect Engram’s route tree to be far more interesting than it was in Jacksonville, where he just played safety valve to the limited and often pressured Trevor Lawrence.

After the big three at TE, there are a lot of question marks, injury issues, age cliffs, and target concerns to worry about in 2025. Engram is entrenched in a good offense, attached to one of the best QB/HC combos in the league, and locked in as the main pass-catching TE (I’m sorry, but I’m not worried about Adam Trautman) and potentially the lead slot receiver. 

He’s a player who has significant upside at his current ADP if he gets through the season healthy.  

 

Bust: Colston Loveland

This isn’t a knock on Colston Loveland as a player. I repeat, put down the pitchforks, I like Loveland… the player. What I don’t like is Loveland’s fantasy situation. 

The Bears already have a starting TE who is pretty good in Cole Kmet, and he comes with a contract that makes it a near certainty he’ll see heavy playing time. That’s already played out in preseason (Week 2), where Kmet and Loveland both played with the starters and rotated in and out (and both caught passes). 

He’s also playing with a somewhat inaccurate, up-and-down QB in Caleb Williams, who is going to feel the heat/need to get his high-profile WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze involved consistently. 

Bottom line, if you are betting on Loveland at his current valuation, you’re playing the hope game. Hoping Kmet becomes a non-factor at some point. Hoping the Bears WRs don’t dominate the targets. Hoping Caleb Williams can support multiple big fantasy finishes from his receivers. I’d rather just look elsewhere at Loveland’s current ADP.

 

 

Photos by Scott W. Grau, Bryan Bennett | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)