Every season, names emerge from the abyss of late rounds or the waiver wire to become fantasy legends. A few players who had an ADP outside the Top 120 last season?
Bucky Irving
Darnell Mooney
Tank Bigsby
JK Dobbins
Khalil Shakir
There are plenty of others, but the point is clear. Identifying opportunities late in drafts gives you a huge leg up towards your push for championship glory. I’ve identified players who have a few of the puzzle pieces put together to arise as one of those names we wonder, “How the heck was he not drafted?”
All players listed are currently outside of the Top 120 per FantasyPros ADP.
Joshua Palmer – WR – Buffalo Bills
(FantasyPros ADP: WR72, 207 Overall)
I recently wrote up Keon Coleman as a post hype sleeper, and for similar reasons, I like first-time Buffalo Bill Joshua Palmer this season. For starters, Palmer’s new quarterback, reigning MVP Josh Allen, has one of the best deep balls in the league.
But with the departures of Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins, Coleman is the lone returning Buffalo pass catcher with an average depth of target over 10 last season. They brought in both Palmer and Elijah Moore to help fill the void, but I prefer Palmer. Despite finishing fourth in targets on the Chargers last season, Palmer accounted for 25.6% of Los Angeles’ air yards and ranked second on the team in deep targets with 18. Among the teams’ receivers with at least 10 catches, Palmer had the highest yards per reception with 14.97. His ADP outside the top 200 players is borderline blasphemous. If things between him and Allen click, Palmer can easily become a viable every-week fantasy starter. The potential is there for Palmer to return immense value.
Wan’Dale Robinson – WR – New York Giants
(FantasyPros ADP: WR67, 174 Overall)
Listen. I completely understand the hesitation with considering any Giants player outside of Malik Nabers for your fantasy team. But Wan’Dale Robinson quietly had 140 targets last season and was the only Giant not named Nabers to see more than 70 targets. Robinson was one of only 11 receivers with 90+ catches and over 100 targets, but the only one to finish outside of the top 16 at the position. Eight of the 11 finished inside the top 10, including teammate Malik Nabers, and other elites like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. Jerry Jeudy (WR13) and DJ Moore (WR16) just missed the top 10. Robinson’s WR36 finish certainly wasn’t helped by the abysmally poor offense he was on, as well as the 78.9% catchable target rate he received, which ranked 24th among qualifying WRs.
I don’t expect the Giants to have an elite offense by any means (I’m not a fanatic), but it should be significantly improved with Russell Wilson, Jaxson Dart, and/or Jameis Winston under center. I don’t envision Robinson seeing another 140 targets, but another season of playing second fiddle to neighbors should make 100+ easily attainable. That alone makes him a viable option for your FLEX spot or a bye week fill-in.
Roschon Johnson – RB – Chicago Bears
(FantasyPros ADP: RB58, 167 Overall)
The instant Ben Johnson was hired as head coach of the Chicago Bears, the dialogue shifted to determining who would handle the David Montgomery role in the offense. With no significant additions at the position this offseason and D’Andre Swift already earmarked for the Jahmyr Gibbs role, the assumption by most has been that seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai will be the one. But the answer to the question is a back who was already on the Bears roster.
Roschon Johnson was abysmal last season. He rushed for 150 yards on 55 attempts, averaging 2.73 yards per carry. Despite his poor production and seeing nearly 200 fewer carries than Swift, Johnson was able to match Swift’s six rushing scores. Johnson was much better in short-yardage situations and outperformed Swift in the red zone pretty handily. Swift had 31 red zone carries compared to 14 of Johnson, but Swift was stuffed at a 58.1% rate. Johnson’s staff rate was ~30% less at 28.6%. Johnson had 10 carries inside the 10 compared to 18 for Swift, and had a seductive 60% touchdown rate (#1 among backs with at least 10 carries inside the 10).
Chicago’s offensive line has been significantly upgraded this offseason, and with Ben Johnson on the sidelines calling plays, the offense is expected to be substantially improved. Johnson is still just 24 years old; if he can become the “Knuckles” to Swift’s “Sonic”, Johnson would be in line for major fantasy production.
Mason Taylor – TE – New York Jets
(FantasyPros ADP: TE24, 183 Overall)
Overshadowed by first-round picks Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, Mason Taylor may have the most direct path to a significant target share of the three. Taken in the second round by the New York Jets, Taylor’s competition for second in line for targets is Allen Lazard, Josh Reynolds, and Malachi Corley.
His blocking is a concern and could be what holds him back from seeing the field at times, but there’s no concern about his pass-catching chops. Taylor is the only tight end in LSU history with 100+ receptions and 1000 receiving yards, and his 55 receptions last year set a single-season record for the Tigers.
After the elites, tight end is often an unappealing group we sift through for merely respectable production, and if we’re lucky, a breakout. Taylor has the skill and opportunity to make it happen, and is practically free.
Tyler Shough – QB – New Orleans Saints
(FantasyPros ADP: QB34, 198 Overall)
The expectations for the Saints this season are understandably low, but we’ve seen plenty of poor real-life offenses produce for fantasy (Blake Bortles, anyone?). There’s a three-way battle for the Saints’ starting QB spot, but Shough (pronounced “shuck”) should have little trouble with his competition. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener were both players who were already on the roster when New Orleans invested a second-round pick in Shough, and both are pretty meh.
The ceiling is certainly limited with Shough; he had turnover issues in college and has a reputation for making slow reads. But considering the strong set of weapons he’ll have at his disposal (Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed, Alvin Kamara) and a head coach in Kellen Moore known for his elite offenses as an OC, Should is a free lottery ticket. He’s more of a target in Superflex leagues, but there’s no risk at an ADP of QB34. He could offer some upside as a solid 1QB league backup with occasional spike weeks.
Rashid Shaheed – WR – New Orleans Saints
(FantasyPros ADP: WR55, 135 Overall)
Rashid Shaheed had a blistering start to the 2024 season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of six games and catching a touchdown in three.
Rashid Shaheed so far:
4 touches
103 total yards
1 TDProblem.pic.twitter.com/Q1dzpHRvBt
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) September 15, 2024
Sadly, the breakout was snipped short in Week 6 due to a knee injury that ended his season. Shaheed’s involvement in the offense was on the rise, averaging nine targets from Weeks 4-6 after averaging just under five in the first three. Obviously, there is concern with the Saints’ Quarterback situation, but as long as it’s Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler, Shaheed should be just fine. Shaheed would benefit most from Shough’s big arm ability, but he did see seven targets in the lone game he and Rattler played together. Shaheed should see enough volume as the set starter across from Chris Olave to return value on his ADP easily. The Saints’ suspect defense should lead to the offense having to air it out plenty as they play from behind. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, and garbage time points count just the same in fantasy.
Honorable Mentions:
RB Elijah Mitchell – Kansas City Chiefs
(FantasyPros ADP: RB70, 212 Overall)
Outside of Mitchell, the only additions at the position for the Chiefs were re-signing soon-to-be 30-year-old Kareem Hunt and seventh-round pick Brashard Smith. Significant opportunity if Isiah Pacheco were to miss time or is unable to return to pre-injury form.
RB Braelon Allen – New York Jets
(FantasyPros ADP: RB55, 135 Overall)
Similar to Mitchell, the incumbent has yet to fully return to pre-injury form. Has shown flashes of elite upside and is another Ben Johnson-influenced offense who expects to use multiple backs.
RB Marshawn Lloyd – Green Bay Packers
(FantasyPros ADP: RB60, 181 Overall)
Rookie season was over before it started, playing in just one game before succumbing to injury. Appears fully healthy and could be the handcuff to Josh Jacobs in a potent Packers offense.
WR DeMario Douglas – New England Patriots
(FantasyPros ADP: WR78, 250 Overall)
We saw flashes from Pop Douglas last season, but he has become an afterthought with the Patriots’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs. Opportunities are plentiful in an offense in need of playmakers and an emerging talent at quarterback.
WR Jack Bech – Las Vegas Raiders
(FantasyPros ADP: WR60, 135 Overall)
The Raiders’ weak WR corps consists of Jakobi Meyers, and that’s about it. A chance to see substantial volume from day one. Brock Bowers can’t catch all the passes. Right?
WR Calvin Austin III – Pittsburgh Steelers
(FantasyPros ADP: WR74, 226 Overall)
The Steelers’ weak WR corps consists of DK Metcalf, and that’s about it. A chance to see substantial volume from day one. Metcalf can’t catch all the passes. Right?
(Data sourced from Fantasy Points.)
Photo by Fred Kfoury III | Adapted by Parker McDonald