Draft Prep: Four Quarterbacks Who Will Bust in 2019

Those who know me know that I like to wait on QB (broken record if you’ve read my other articles) and it’s easy to find busts at the position. A bust at the QB position is anyone you have to spend real capital on (let’s say a pick in the first 12 rounds) that is likely to disappoint in terms of final value. When I dub someone a bust, I’m not necessarily commenting on their real life talent or how I think they’ll do this year. My favorite example of this is Patrick Mahomes; he’d be on my real life team in a heartbeat if I could get him there, but he won’t be on any of my fantasy teams this year. He’s just too expensive in my mind, and he is unlikely to live up to his huge cost. Before we take a look at our list of busts, let’s first check how things finished up these last few seasons:

	2018 Finish	Points	2017 Finish	Points	2016 Finish	Points
Patrick Mahomes	1st	427.1	——–	—-	———	—-
Matt Ryan	2nd	350.5	15th	240.1	2nd	352.5
Ben Roethlisberger	3rd	349.0	10th	270.7	17th	259.2
DeShaun Watson	4th	340.7	26th	172.9	——–	—-
Andrew Luck	5th	337.5	——-	—-	4th	316.7
Jared Goff	6th	318.3	12th	262.5	36th	60.2
Aaron Rodgers	7th	308.6	30th	135.6	1st	383.0
Russell Wilson	8th	306.5	1st	354.9	12th	269.7
Drew Brees	9th	304.9	11th	270.7	3rd	347.3
Cam Newton	10th	291.6	2nd	313.5	15th	264.3
Tom Brady	11th	290.7	4th	299.8	18th	258.6
Dak Prescott	12th	289.9	9th	273.7	6th	290.9

Note: Scores in this table were calculated using Yahoo standard scoring.

 

Okay, so what do I gather from the data? Only three quarterbacks have stayed in the top-12 each of the last three years: Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and of course Dak Prescott. This shouldn’t be held against Mahomes, Watson or Goff though–they haven’t yet played three full seasons. Another takeaway from the data is that none of these quarterbacks have started in 10+ games and finished outside of the top-18 that season. They are all relatively safe options. Finally, I looked back for seasons where a fantasy quarterback put up 400+ points (like Mahomes last year) and it hasn’t happened since 2013. In fact, only three other quarterbacks have done it since the 2001 season…Peyton Manning (420.0), Aaron Rodgers (403.4), and Drew Brees (401.6). They finished with 323.7, 350.0, and 364.6 points their following seasons. We aren’t here to talk about number one finishers though…we want some QBs to avoid. Let’s get into it!

 

Patrick Mahomes (ADP 3.03)

 

I tend to avoid the first quarterback off the draft board each year; it’s nothing personal though. I was a big fan of Peyton Manning, I think Aaron Rodgers could be the best quarterback of all time, and Patrick Mahomes might be in the playoffs every season for the next 10-15 years. However, the best quarterback tends to get there with some luck and he tends to be overly expensive. Here is a look at previous #1 finishers at quarterback along with their touchdown percentages (TD%, % of all attempts that end in a touchdown):

	Fantasy QB #1	TD%	Career TD%	% Difference
2001	Kurt Warner	6.6%	5.1%	+1.5
2002	Rich Gannon	4.2%	4.3%	-0.1
2003	Daunte Culpepper	5.5%	4.7%	+0.8
2004	Daunte Culpepper	7.1%	4.7%	+2.4
2005	Carson Palmer	6.3%	4.7%	+1.6
2006	Peyton Manning	5.6%	5.7%	-0.1
2007	Tom Brady	8.7%	5.5%	+3.2
2008	Drew Brees	5.4%	5.3%	-0.1
2009	Aaron Rodgers	5.5%	6.2%	-0.7
2010	Aaron Rodgers	5.9%	6.2%	-0.3
2011	Aaron Rodgers	9.0%	6.2%	+2.8
2012	Drew Brees	6.4%	5.2%	+1.2
2013	Peyton Manning	8.4%	5.7%	+2.7
2014	Andrew Luck	6.5%	5.2%	+1.3
2015	Cam Newton	7.1%	4.7%	+2.4
2016	Aaron Rodgers	6.6%	6.2%	+0.4
2017	Russell Wilson	6.1%	6.0%	+0.1
2018	Patrick Mahomes	8.6%	?	?

 

Looking at the list, 12 of 17 quarterbacks since 2001 saw a jump in their TD% the season they led the league. A reasonable TD% we can expect for a career is somewhere in the 5s for elite quarterbacks. After all, Peyton Manning finished at 5.7%, Tom Brady is currently at 5.5%, Drew Brees is 5.3%, and Aaron Rodgers has an outstanding 6.2%. If we regressed Mahomes back to Rodgers’ numbers, he would have thrown 36 touchdowns in 2018 instead of 50. Do elite quarterbacks drop off like that though? Here is every QB on the list with a TD% of 6.5 or higher along with how they fared the following season:

 

Quarterback	TD% (#1 season)	TD%,following season (finish)
Daunte Culpepper (2004)	7.5%	2.8% (34th, injury)
Tom Brady (2007)	8.7%	—- (injury)
Aaron Rodgers (2011)	9.0%	7.1% (2nd)
Peyton Manning (2013)	8.4%	6.5% (4th)
Cam Newton (2015)	7.1%	3.7% (15th)
Patrick Mahomes (2018)	8.6%	?

 

Looking at this list, each quarterback on it dropped at least 1.9% the following year. For Mahomes, this would mean 11 fewer touchdowns last season. It’s also worth noting that this isn’t just a list of no-name players…there are 4 or 5 future Hall of Fame guys on this list. Still, they drop back off all the same. If we regressed Patrick Mahomes’ TD% to that of Aaron Rodgers (the career leader in the modern era), he would have lost 14 touchdowns and scored a nearly identical amount as Matt Ryan. I don’t see anyone paying up for Matt Ryan. Skip Mahomes and grab someone cheaper later on. You’ll be glad you did.

 

Andrew Luck (5.04)

 

So first I hate Mahomes, and now I’m selling on Luck too. I’m just a buzzkill, aren’t I? I honestly do love the influx of talent at the quarterback position, and I hope the league’s passing games continue to improve. Still, there are two reasons I’m selling on Luck: general regression and injury history. First, let’s look at Luck’s career numbers to date:

 

Year	Age	Games	Comp.	Att.	Comp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Yds/gm
2012	23	16	339	627	54.1	4374	23	3.7	18	2.9	273.4
2013	24	16	343	570	60.2	3822	23	4.0	9	1.6	238.9
2014	25	16	380	616	61.7	4761	40	6.5	16	2.6	297.6
2015	26	7	162	293	55.3	1881	15	5.1	12	4.1	268.7
2016	27	15	346	545	63.5	4240	31	5.7	13	2.4	282.7
2018	29	16	430	639	67.3	4593	39	6.1	15	2.3	287.1
Career		86	2000	3290	60.8	23671	171	5.2	83	2.5	275.2

 

What catches my eye here are two things: TD% and pass attempts. Like Mahomes, Luck enjoyed a better than usual touchdown rate last season. If we regressed Luck’s TD% to his career number, he loses 6 touchdowns from last season’s excellent finish. This doesn’t even mention his attempts, which I also expect to go down. Why do I expect his attempts to go down? Luck has already been dealing with a calf injury this preseason, and we remember how he sat out 2017. I’m sure the Colts won’t take any chances with the face of their franchise. They improved their O-line as a first step, but I also expect a managed workload to help. Let’s say Luck loses 50 attempts, or about 3/ game. He just lost another 2-3 touchdowns. I’m going to pass on Luck at his expensive 5th round price.

 

Matt Ryan (7.04)

 

As far as quarterbacks who just finished top three the year before go, Ryan actually has a reasonable price tag. You could grab three running backs, three wide receivers, and last year’s #2 finisher. So why am I staying away? Let’s look at Ryan’s last 4 years–along with his career numbers.

 

Season	Age	Comp	Att.	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Yds/gm
2015	30	407	614	66.3	4591	21	3.4	16	2.6	286.9
2016	31	373	534	69.9	4944	38	7.1	7	1.3	309.0
2017	32	342	529	64.7	4095	20	3.8	12	2.3	255.9
2018	33	422	608	69.4	4924	35	5.8	7	1.2	307.8
Career		4052	6201	65.3	46720	295	4.8	133	2.1	268.5

 

I see two excellent seasons (2016 and 2018) and two pedestrian seasons (2015 and 2017). I also see a TD% and Int% that are cruising for regression. This regression alone would have dropped Matt Ryan’s touchdowns by six and increased his interceptions by six (coincidentally) as well. That would be a 36 point change in fantasy last year. In addition to Ryan’s regression, we see how hot and cold he can be. For those who are curious, 2014 and 2012 were also solid seasons while 2013 didn’t quite match up. Factor in an aging #1 receiver (Julio Jones), a running back who’s getting older and dealing with more injuries, little other talent in the running game, and a likely improved defense, and I see a less impressive season from Ryan this year.

 

Ben Roethlisberger (11.01)

 

Like Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger finished as a top-3 quarterback last season. Also like Ryan, he has a surprisingly cheap ADP on the surface. It starts to become clear, however once we dig into the numbers. First, there are the weapons that left in the offseason; the Steelers traded away mega-star Antonio Brown to the Raiders, and they let Le’Veon Bell leave in free agency. It’s possible that they just let the #1 wide receiver and running back in 2018 walk. Any team who sees that much firepower vanish is certainly going to drop off, right?

Well to be fair, James Conner held his own last season in the running back role; maybe all hope isn’t lost. Did Pittsburgh also replace AB? Well…James Washington and Donte Moncrief are going to try. Washington had 217 receiving yards last year and 1 touchdown in his rookie season. Moncrief has 21 touchdowns and 2,500 yards through five seasons, or an average of 500 yards and 4 touchdowns per year. This is a far cry from the 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns Brown had last season in only 15 games. I personally think almost no one in the league can do what Brown does, and his loss will be felt. Moving beyond position players, let’s look at Roethlisberger himself:

	Age	Games	Comp.	Att.	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Yds/gm
2004	22	14	196	295	66.4	2621	17	5.8	11	3.7	187.2
2005	23	12	168	268	62.7	2385	17	6.3	9	3.4	198.8
2006	24	15	280	469	59.7	3513	18	3.8	23	4.9	234.2
2007	25	15	264	404	65.3	3154	32	7.9	11	2.7	210.3
2008	26	16	281	469	59.9	3301	17	3.6	15	3.2	206.3
2009	27	15	337	506	66.6	4328	26	5.1	12	2.4	288.5
2010	28	12	240	389	61.7	3200	17	4.4	5	1.3	266.7
2011	29	15	324	513	63.2	4077	21	4.1	14	2.7	271.8
2012	30	13	284	449	63.3	3265	26	5.8	8	1.8	251.2
2013	31	16	375	584	64.2	4261	28	4.8	14	2.4	266.3
2014	32	16	408	608	67.1	4952	32	5.3	9	1.5	309.5
2015	33	12	319	469	68.0	3938	21	4.5	16	3.4	328.2
2016	34	14	328	509	64.4	3819	29	5.7	13	2.6	272.8
2017	35	15	360	561	64.2	4251	28	5.0	14	2.5	283.4
2018	36	16	452	675	67.0	5129	34	5.0	16	2.4	320.6
Career		216	4616	7168	64.4	56194	363	5.1	190	2.7	260.2

 

Big Ben has only completed 600 passes twice in his career–last year and 2014. He has only thrown 30+ touchdowns twice since 2008. He’s only completed 400 passes in a season twice, and last year he completed 452. He’s thrown 13 or more interceptions in 5 of his last 6 seasons. He is 36 years old and he has taken a beating over the length of his career. He lost possibly the best receiver and running back of the last five years in the same offseason. I’m sorry, but even an eleventh round pick is too much to spend on Roethlisberger.

(Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)