Expert Mock Draft: Drew DeLuca’s Half-PPR picks

QB List's Drew DeLuca reviews his picks from a recent Expert Mock Draft hosted on CBS Fantasy by FSWA Hall of Famer Scott Engel.

Drew DeLuca
Draft Prep 4 Months Ago

Peak fantasy football draft season is upon us, and people all over the world are furiously scrutinizing positional lists of players and spreadsheets in final preparation. Mock drafts on online platforms are great in principle as a preparation tool, but they’re ruined all too often by unspeakable heathens who leave after Round 2 and send the entire mock straight to Autodraft Hell. With that in mind, a better way to prepare for your most important drafts is to peek in on industry experts to see how they are approaching theirs.

It was an honor to represent QBList.com last week in an expert mock draft alongside several notable and esteemed experts. A huge shout-out goes out to Scott “The King” Engel, whose work can be found at Sportsline.com, Rotoballer, Seahawks.com, and Sirius XM Fantasy. Scott organized and hosted the mock draft on the CBS Fantasy platform, and I’m grateful for the invitation. Scott Engel’s full article, complete round-by-round results, and analysis of this draft can be found here on Sportsline.com.

This particular 12-team league utilized Half-PPR (0.5 points per reception) scoring. Starting lineups consisted of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, and 1 DST. Teams were allotted five bench spots with no minimum or maximum positional allotments. With those particulars out of the way, let’s take a look at the participants, roll up our sleeves, and watch how the draft unfolded.

 

List of Participants

Draft Slot Expert Drafter
1 Scott Engel, SportsLine.com
2 Joel Cox, CBS Sports
3 LaQuan Jones, RotoBaller
4 Geoff Stein, National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC)
5 Drew DeLuca, The QB List
6 Doug Orth, FFToday
7 Rich Maletto, Fantasy Guru
8 Drew Loftis, New York Post
9 Kevin Murray, Fantasy Football Unlimited
10 Iggy Gilbert, The Sports Affiliation
11 John Laub, Player Profiler
12 Yvette Laboy, Bougie Sports

 

 

Round 1, Pick 5: WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

In Half-PPR drafts, I typically prefer a Hero RB or Robust RB approach, preferably with a stud RB in Round 1. My plan going into this one: pray that one of Breece Hall, Christian McCaffrey, or Bijan Robinson would slip to me at Pick 5. My hopes soared when FSWA Hall of Famer Scott Engel selected Tyreek Hill first overall, but Joel Cox, LaQuan Jones, and Geoffrey Stein crushed my plans by selecting McCaffrey, Robinson, and Hall in the three subsequent selections.

The conundrum: take the RB4 on my board, Saquon Barkley, or my WR1: CeeDee Lamb. As a lifelong Philadelphia Eagles fan, this decision was far harder for me than it needed to be, but I ended up listening to my head instead of my heart and selecting Lamb. I decided to wait until Round 2 to take whichever of Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, or Isiah Pacheco fell to me at Pick 20.

 

 

Round 2, Pick 20: WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

On to Plan B, as none of those running backs fell to me at Pick 20. De’Von Achane also went off the board for good measure. When everyone else in the room zigs, the smart move is to zag. It was never my intention to start WR/WR in a half-PPR draft, but here we are. So, welcome to the club, Puka Nacua. A month ago, he was going near the 1/2 turn, and since most players improve in their second seasons, I’m happy to see Nacua still sitting there at Pick 20 after posting a rookie season for the ages.

 

 

Round 3, Pick 29: WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

 

This pick was made at the intersection of logic and analytics. Ideally, fantasy football drafters want to walk away with key pieces of high-powered offenses. Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards, and Jaylen Waddle is a key piece of the offense. The former Alabama standout has missed four games during his three seasons, but still managed to draw 100+ targets and log 1,000+ yards in each. Last year’s touchdown total (4) was 43 percent lower than his average (7) over his first two seasons, so positive touchdown regression is to be expected, especially when the following metrics are considered:

 

 

Round 4, Pick 44: RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

I thought about taking Jalen Hurts as the first quarterback off the board here and also considered an elite tight end like Sam LaPorta. Unfortunately, this was not a slow draft. With a short clock ticking, running back scarcity caught me in a moment of weakness. Aaron Jones was the next running back on my board and one of the few left with a reasonably logical path to a Top 12 finish. Jones has averaged 52 receptions in each of his last four full seasons (14 or more games played), so I’m not as convinced as some that Ty Chandler is going to squeeze Jones out on third downs. Chandler has caught only 21 passes in 20 career games and isn’t even a shadow of the player that Jones is when healthy.

 

 

Round 5, Pick 53: QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

 

I typically wait on quarterbacks and let a Tua Tagovailoa or Jared Goff fall to me late, but with a Modified Zero RB approach laid out for me by the draft board, the prospect of taking an elite quarterback was suddenly on the table. Therefore, I welcomed Jalen Hurts, my overall QB1 for 2024, with open arms in Round 5. I don’t recall ever being the first person to take a quarterback in a given draft, and I kept that streak intact here.

Hurts, taken a few picks after LaQuon Jones chose Josh Allen, has a far superior cache of weapons in the passing game. He’ll work behind a far better offensive line and remains the superior rushing threat in terms of yardage. Hurts should also equal or surpass Allen’s rushing touchdown total, as he has in each of the past three seasons. Hurts is also well-positioned to have his best season as a passer in a new offense directed by Kellen Moore. Add it all up, and it was way too hard for me to pass on Hurts at this point in the draft.

 

Round 6, Pick 68: WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars

 

This is a flag plant, plain and simple. I’ve gone on record saying that Christian Kirk is the best wide receiver value in fantasy football drafts this year, and I’m compelled to reiterate as much after being sniped on Evan Engram just two picks beforehand by Rich Maletto!

Frequent drafters of Kirk like myself lack confidence in rookie Brian Thomas, Jr. to instantly emerge as the alpha in this Jacksonville Jaguars receiving game. We’ve also seen enough of Gabe Davis to know what he is…and what he isn’t. As the only wide receiver with experience in the offense and an established rapport with quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Kirk is in a great position to absorb a large chunk of the insane volume of vacated red zone targets left on the table by Calvin Ridley, now a member of the Tennessee Titans.

 

 

Round 7, Pick 77: TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

 

As mentioned above, Evan Engram was in my crosshairs the round before. Engram is by far my favorite tight end value pick this year and is one of my most-owned players this season at any position. Enter Jake Ferguson as a consolation prize, who should once again be the second-most targeted player in the Dallas Cowboys passing game. Brandin Cooks will celebrate his 31st birthday in less than a month and hasn’t drawn 100+ targets since 2021.

Ferguson, who was a Top 10 tight end last year in terms of targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, doesn’t get the respect he deserves from the fantasy community. He saw 21 more targets than Cooks last year, and that gap is more likely to grow than shrink as long as the former Wisconsin Badger remains healthy in 2024.

 

 

Round 8, Pick 92: RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

 

Boom! Finally, I landed my stud running back…but is he boom or bust? Jonathon Brooks unquestionably has the highest ceiling of any remaining running back, but he’s currently starting the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list. This means he’ll miss the first four games of the regular season at a minimum. Aaron Jones is a capable weekly starter in the meantime, and I feel confident that I’ll find a few other running back values later on to patch the running back position while Brooks returns to form. As some like Dave Kluge (Footballguys.com) below suggest, Brooks is a potential league winner who can’t hurt your team at ADP. I’ll take him in Round 8 or later every time.

 

 

Round 9, Pick 101: RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

We all saw Nick Chubb squatting the near-equivalent of 34 double-decker buses just eight months after surgery. For me, it evoked memories of Adrian Peterson, who defied all known laws of human nature and modern medicine a dozen years ago. Lest we forget, Peterson returned to the gridiron just nine months after tearing both his ACL and MCL and league in rushing as a 27-year-old. What made this feat even more incredible: Peterson ran for almost 2,100 yards and nearly broke the NFL’s single-season rushing record that year. To be fair, Peterson was a freak of nature…but so is Chubb.

Let me be perfectly clear: I don’t expect Chubb, the heart and soul of the Cleveland Browns offense, to replicate Peterson’s success. However, if there’s one person I’m hesitant to bet against, it’s a player who has already “been there, done that.” Chubb rebounded from a horrific knee injury in college and became one of the best pure running backs the NFL has ever seen.

Like Brooks, Chubb is a high-ceiling IR or bench stash who could lead a fantasy manager to a championship. He therefore makes a terrific home run swing in Round 9. If either Brooks or Chubb pans out, this team will be a force down the stretch. If both approach their ceilings, I like my chances of becoming the odds-on favorite to become league champion.

 

Round 10 Pick, 116: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers 

And now, we exhale. After taking a couple of shots on high-risk, high-reward running backs to pair with Aaron Jones, we have a legitimate RB2 to plug in for the first quarter of the season. As a Top 12 RB in Weeks 12-17 last season, Chuba Hubbard proved that he’s more than capable of carrying the mail as an RB2 while we wait for Brooks and Chubb to round into form. Hubbard should put up respectable numbers as the lead back in the new offense installed by Dave Canales in Carolina.

Round 11 Pick, 125: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings 

After an impressive rookie season (70-911-10), Jordan Addison slips here due to pending legal concerns and quarterback issues…sorry, Sam Darnold truthers (if any of you are left), but that’s the reality of the situation. That said, Darnold showed a pulse the last time he was under center in Carolina. He led the Panthers to a 4-2 record in 2022, and the team went 3-8 without Darnold under center that season.

Ironically, as 2024 Round 1 draft pick J.J. McCarthy watches from the sidelines all season, Darnold has a decent shot to emerge as the Comeback Player of the Year with weapons like Justin Jefferson and Addison at his disposal. Darnold is no Patrick Mahomes by any stretch, but with so many experts foaming at the mouth in anticipation of drafting Rashee Rice ahead of ADP, I was surprised to see a player with this much upside available so incredibly late in a 12-team expert draft. Addison’s red zone proficiency alone should propel his production well above this draft position.

 

 

Round 12, Pick 140: Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills 

 

Most drafters appear to assume that Dalton Kincaid or Khalil Shakir will serve as the alpha receiving option in the Buffalo Bills passing game. I like both players, but what if it’s actually Curtis Samuel…who caught 77 passes and compiled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in Joe Brady’s offense as a member of the Carolina Panthers in 2020? Shakir, entering his third season, likely won’t play as often in 2 WR sets and has yet to compile 40 receptions in an NFL season. Meanwhile, Dawson Knox, a more complete tight end, will nibble away at Kincaid’s snap share to some degree. I’m not saying this is what will happen in Buffalo…but it could. In Round 12, why not take a shot on Samuel?

In the words of John Paulsen (@4for4_John) on X/Twitter:

Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone.

 

 

Round 13, Pick 149: QB Jared Goff

Welp, we all make mistakes. Goff was the best player available at any position, but in a single QB league, this was a luxury pick, and therefore a waste of a selection. Jordan Mason, the apparent backup to Christian McCaffrey, was available here, and I’m ashamed of myself for not going that route. I almost chose Ja’Lynn Polk, a potential standout rookie wide receiver on a New England Patriots offense that’s starving for a playmaker. PlayerProfiler’s John Laub astutely selected him a few picks later. Sigh.

I can be my own worst critic, but the takeaway here is clear: drafters can do worse than Jared Goff in Round 13. Let this pick serve as a reminder to readers: never chase a non-elite quarterback in the middle rounds, because a high-floor option like Goff with a Top 5 ceiling is basically free in single QB formats.

 

Round 14, Pick 164: DST, New York Jets

Any self-respecting Happy Gilmore fan knows what happens on the 9th green at 9:00 PM. Likewise, the CBS Fantasy platform had Defense/Special Teams listed as an available option…and since I paid little attention to the other expert drafters’ rosters, I didn’t realize until after the draft that no one else actually took a DST!

In my defense, the New York Jets are my top Defense/Special Teams unit, and since there’s always “that guy” who takes a defense way too early, taking the top defense in my rankings in the 14th Round wasn’t such a bad pick in retrospect. I consider this pick an unintentional nod to those in my home league who insist we leave every draft with both a kicker and a DST. Had I went my usual route of foregoing kicker and defense until the 11th hour before kickoff, my selection here would’ve been Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill, who went undrafted. Hill should play a meaningful role in the Ravens’ offense and will be a serviceable flex option during bye weeks later this season.

 

Summary

After the draft concluded, Sportsline gave me a grade of “B+” for this draft. Only Geoffrey Stein (NFFC), Joel Cox (CBS), and Drew Loftis (New York Post) received higher marks. Stein took the crown as the “paper champion” of this draft, earning an “A” or “A+” at every position.

Curiously, I received a positional grade of “B-” at wide receiver, in spite of a starting trio of Lamb, Nacua, and Waddle and solid depth in the form of Kirk, Addison, and Samuel. I ranked 12th out of 12 in draft capital spent on running backs, yet still managed a “B-” grade at the position. I’ll take it!

 

 

Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire; adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)

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