As the fantasy football season approaches, it’s helpful to know how the player market has changed since we drafted last summer. What players can you get at a discount compared to the previous year? Which names have fallen down the board? Identifying which players’ ADPs (average draft position) have dipped from a year ago can help shape your potential strategy going into drafts.
Maybe you like the Running Backs that seem to fall a little further in drafts than they did in 2024, so you’re more apt to target a few top WRs with your first couple of picks or go with the elite TE strategy. Or, when it comes to quarterbacks, maybe you’re not into the signal callers that come at a lower price than last year, and are aiming to target a quarterback on the earlier side. We’ll go position by position and discuss some of the more notable ADP reductions so you’re best prepared to grab the best values heading into your drafts.
The 2024 ADP data comes from fantasydata.com, while the 2025 ADPs are courtesy of playerprofiler.com’s Underdog best ball data, as re-draft ADPs are still in their infant stages. Let’s start this series off by looking at a few guys under center that you can grab at a discount!
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2024 ADP: 29
2025 ADP: 76.2
It would be irresponsible to start anywhere else when it comes to ADP discounts at the quarterback position. The three-time Super Bowl champion comes at a significant price reduction from a year ago, falling from the elite QB tier to essentially just another mid-round quarterback option. When looking at Patrick Mahomes‘ current situation, however, it could be a discount we want to take advantage of. After being burned by Mahomes the past two seasons, I find it hard to get overly excited about drafting the former MVP, but when a player’s ADP drops this drastically, it should get all of our attention.
Regarding Mahomes’ weapons around him, all signs point to Rashee Rice being 100% or at least very close to it by Week 1, according to Yahoo Sports. Rashee Rice had an electric start to the 2025 season, finishing as the WR5 through the first three weeks, according to Underdog Fantasy. With Rice’s injury occurring in Week 4, and all of the positive news surrounding his recovery, he may not have any limitations by the time September rolls around. This would give Mahomes a bona fide alpha receiver who has elite WR1 potential. Just keep an eye on his legal situation, but as of now, there’s no indication he’s at risk for missing games this season.
Moving down the WR ladder, 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy has another year under his belt and has the special speed to break off a 5-yard reception for a 60-yard touchdown. Hollywood Brown is still just 28 years old, and if he can just be fully healthy heading into the season, it would provide Mahomes with an almost forgotten but quality number 3 WR. Sure, Travis Kelce is about to be 36, but even 70% of him is better than the vast majority of tight ends out there. If you’re frustrated with Mahomes’ fantasy success the last couple of seasons, I’m with you. He might not have the rushing upside to be in the upper echelon of fantasy QBs with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, but his WR situation could be better by leaps and bounds compared to last season. That alone is at least reason to consider Mahomes at his current 7th-round ADP.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2024 ADP: 75
2025 ADP: 125.3
The soon-to-be 32-year-old is essentially an afterthought when it comes to the quarterback position in Underdog best ball drafts, coming off the board as QB17 on average. Sure, Prescott had a forgettable 2024 season that ended with a serious hamstring injury in Week 9, but there are a few reasons in particular to be cautiously bullish on Dak for 2025.
First, he’s heading into the season with the best tandem of number 1 and 2 receivers that he’s likely ever had following the trade for George Pickens. Pickens’ deep threat ability should open up space in the middle of the field for CeeDee Lamb to accumulate chunk plays. The former Steeler’s contested catch prowess allows Dak to connect on big plays down the field, which is exactly what we need for a pocket passer who doesn’t offer much as a rusher.
Prescott may also see some positive regression in the touchdown department. His touchdown rate of 3.8% in 2024 was markedly lower than the three years prior, where his rates sat above 6% for two of them while one was at 5.8%, according to JJ Zachariason’s Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Touchdowns are critical for quarterbacks who don’t run much, and Prescott may be in store for a jump in his passes to pay dirt in 2025. A better supporting cast combined with positive touchdown regression at a much cheaper ADP makes Dak an intriguing option if you’re waiting on quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 ADP: 122
2025 ADP: 133.1
The 2021 1st overall pick had another disappointing season in 2024 that was capped off with his head coach Doug Pederson being let go. Now he comes off the board as the 20th quarterback selected and is largely forgotten when it comes to quarterbacks. But Trevor Lawrence’s situation is different in 2025 for two main reasons: Liam Cohen and Travis Hunter. The Jaguars snagged Cohen from the Bucs after he helped Baker Mayfield have a career year as their offensive coordinator. A fresh, young voice as Lawrence’s play caller who has a track record of getting the most out of his quarterback could finally be what T-Law needs to take the next step.
We already know the Georgia native has an elite WR1 in Brian Thomas Jr., but now he gets Travis Hunter, who many look at as one of the best receiver prospects in years. Hunter’s speed can give Lawrence easy fantasy points, as the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner can create explosive plays or take a short pass to the house at any moment. If Hunter lives up to the hype, or at least close to it, it would give Lawrence one of the best tandems of WRs in the NFL.
T-Law also isn’t a zero on the ground, with him compiling at least 291 rushing yards in each season from 2021-23 before his 2024 season was cut short. He’s not in the elite rushing QB tier highlighted by Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and others, but he does have the potential to add two or three points to his weekly stat line with his legs. A new head coach that may help Lawrence reach his ceiling, combined with good weaponry around him, makes T-Law an attractive option when playing the waiting game at quarterback.
Photo by Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)