As the fantasy football season approaches, it’s helpful to know how the player market has changed since we drafted last summer. What players can you get at a discount compared to the previous year? Which names have fallen down the board? Identifying which players’ ADPs (average draft position) have dipped from a year ago can help shape your potential strategy going into drafts.
Maybe you like the Running Backs that seem to fall a little further in drafts than they did in 2024, so you’re more apt to target a few top WRs with your first couple of picks or go with the elite TE strategy. Or, when it comes to quarterbacks, maybe you’re not into the signal callers who come at a lower price than last year and are aiming to target a quarterback on the earlier side. We’ll go position by position and discuss some of the more notable ADP reductions so you’re well prepared to grab the best values heading into your drafts.
The 2024 ADP data comes from fantasydata.com, while the 2025 ADPs are courtesy of playerprofiler.com’s Underdog best ball data, as redraft ADPs are still in their infant stages. We continue the series by examining three running backs who are available at a slightly discounted price compared to a year ago. Once August comes around and home leagues start to heat up, these ADPs likely will rise, but the Underdog ADP at least gives a good range of where they may fall in redraft leagues.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
2024 ADP: 1
2025 ADP: 13
The 29-year-old comes with his share of injury and age concerns, but there’s a pretty big difference from being picked first overall in just about 100% of drafts to now going at the 1-2 turn. McCaffrey can potentially be paired with the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, or even Malik Nabers if he falls a few spots. In other words, you can start a draft with CMC and a legit WR1, something that was a bit more difficult to do in 2024 due to his 1.01 ADP. McCaffrey fully participated in the 49ers’ mini-camp and had only good things to say about his health. He’s still below the age-30 mark, comes at a discount, and seems to have put his health concerns behind him, at least for the moment. It’s hard to imagine he repeats his 2023 performance, but there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on a quality 2025 campaign for McCaffrey, making him worthy of a late first/early second-round pick.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
2024 ADP: 4
2025 ADP: 36.5
The 2022 2nd-round pick had a rough season a year ago after he battled a Week 11 knee injury that lingered through the rest of 2024. The ailment affected the same knee that required ACL surgery during his rookie year. While Hall himself deemed the injury “pretty serious”, he says he’s healthy now heading into 2025.
The Jets’ offensive structure didn’t do Breece any favors in 2024 either. New York ran the fewest run plays in the NFL, according to thejetpress.com. The lesser volume, combined with a nagging knee injury, can at least partially explain why 2024 went the way it did for Hall.
With his play caller and quarterback situation transformed (OC Tanner Engstrand and QB Justin Fields), along with improved health, Hall is in a position to offer excellent value to fantasy managers who pull the trigger on him in the third or early fourth round.
Justin Fields at the helm likely means this offense looks drastically different in 2025, with the run game being much more of an emphasis. The 24-year-old stands to benefit from lining up next to a quarterback who is a significant threat with his legs. Think Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley a year ago: both of their lives were made easier by Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts putting pressure on the defense with their rushing abilities. Predicting Hall for 2,000 rushing yards is silly, but let’s not pretend like his situation isn’t markedly better for a nice bounce back from a disappointing 2024. The Jets also have only one true proven receiving weapon in Garrett Wilson, adding to the likelihood that this offense will need to run the football effectively to find success.
Hall’s discount of approximately 30 picks from a year ago allows you to pair Hall with two top 24 receivers or draft him as your RB2 if you snag one of the top running backs earlier in the first round. There’s a reason we were all drafting him high last year, and those reasons could be fully exposed in 2025.
Isiah Pachecho, Kansas City Chiefs
2024 ADP: 20
2025 ADP: 114.5
The Chiefs ball carrier fractured his fibula in Week 2 last season and was never able to get back to form following the injury. Pachecho did return towards the end of the season, but during the owners’ meetings at the end of March, head coach Andy Reid noted his cutting ability wasn’t quite 100%.
Now, the Rutgers product is fully healthy and ready to return to his usual explosive self that fantasy managers have grown accustomed to. Don’t just take my word for it. In early June, Reid commented on Pachecho’s injury status, saying he looks “tremendous” and added some good weight over the offseason.
As you can see, the discount on Pachecho is drastic. The market doesn’t believe he can return to his 2023 ways, making him a great buy-low opportunity. Remember, Pachecho’s injury occurred back in Week 2, meaning it’ll be almost a full calendar year since it happened by the time the 2025 season kicks off. He’s only 26 years old, right in his prime, so there’s no reason to think his age should be a concern in terms of being able to regain his explosiveness and cutting ability.
The Running Back room is a little crowded, with the addition of Elijah Mitchell from the 49ers, the re-signing of Kareem Hunt, and the 7th-round draft selection of Brashard Smith from SMU. When you break that room down, however, none of those moves are major investments. Mitchell is on a minimal one-year contract. Hunt will be 30 years old in August and was one of the least efficient running backs in 2024. Smith is a converted receiver and profiles as more of a pass-catching back, making it less likely he takes any early down work away from Pachecho. Combining that with Andy Reid’s glowing comments from a month ago makes Pachecho an easy investment given his ADP. It’ll likely rise when the casual drafters in home leagues come back in the picture in late July and August, but even if it rises a couple of rounds, it’s still a bargain.
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