As the fantasy football season approaches, it’s helpful to know how the player market has changed since we drafted last summer. What players can you get at a discount compared to the previous year? Which names have fallen down the board? Identifying which players’ ADPs (average draft position) have dipped from a year ago can help shape your potential strategy going into drafts.
Maybe you like the Running Backs that seem to fall a little further in drafts than they did in 2024, so you’re more apt to target a few top WRs with your first couple of picks or go with the elite TE strategy. Or, when it comes to quarterbacks, maybe you’re not into the signal callers who come at a lower price than last year and are aiming to target a quarterback on the earlier side. We’ll go position by position and discuss some of the more notable ADP reductions so you’re well prepared to grab the best values heading into your drafts.
The 2024 ADP data comes from fantasydata.com, while the 2025 ADPs originate from Fantasy Pros’ consensus ADP data across multiple platforms for full PPR leagues at the time of writing this article. We continue the series by examining four wide receivers who are available at a slightly discounted price compared to a year ago.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
2024 ADP: 3
2025 ADP: 23.5
I prefer an ascending player or one right in their prime this early in the draft, but the 31-year-old’s uncharacteristic down year in 2024 can be explained for multiple reasons. A wrist injury he suffered during last year’s training camp combined with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing six games made it impossible for Hill to pay off his top-five ADP. Now, after a second offseason wrist surgery, he’s healthy and ready for the start of training camp. Also, Tight End Jonnu Smith was traded to the Steelers, vacating 111 targets within the Dolphins offense. A clean bill of health along with less target competition in this generally consolidated offense makes Hill a worthy look around his ADP.
Now that he’s past the dreaded age of 30, the concern is that he could be over the hill. However, in June, Hill ran a 10.15-second 100-meter dash at a track meet in California, the fastest time among all runners. As a former middle-of-the-road track runner, 10.15 is a time I could only dream of. Hill running the sprint in just over 10 seconds shows he still has plenty of juice and explosiveness to speed by defenders as he’s done so many times in his career.
An ADP at the 2-3 turn isn’t a bargain, but at least you can pair Hill with the likes of a hero running back like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, or target him as your WR2 behind Ja’Marr Chase. Upside is the name of the game, and a healthy Tyreek possesses as much upside as anybody else in the NFL.
Marvin Harrison Jr, Arizona Cardinals
2024 ADP: 15
2025 ADP: 29
One of the best receiver prospects that has ever graced us came at a serious premium in 2024 in terms of draft position. I think we can all agree that taking a rookie receiver around the 1-2 turn was a bit drastic, but now that his price has dipped going into his second season, let’s get into why Harrison may be a good candidate to fulfill or exceed expectations in 2025.
The Ohio State product faces no additional serious target competition, as the main names to know in the Cardinals’ receiving room remain the same. Trey McBride is, of course, one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL, which at least forces defenses to account for another pass-catching weapon along with Harrison. Quarterback Kyler Murray is also another year removed from his ACL injury and heading right into his prime at age 28.
Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland dished out some encouraging metrics for Harrison as well on their Cardinals team preview show. Based on fantasy points per game going back to 2011, his 11.7 FPPG puts him in the low WR3 range. Among rookies who find themselves in the WR3 bucket that were comparable to Harrison in terms of underlying metrics, 43% of them turn into WR2s in their second year, and 26% turn into WR1s. In other words, it would be no outlier for Harrison to bump into the WR2 territory in his second season, which is where he’s being drafted currently.
To add, things ended on a positive note in 2024 for Harrison. His targets per game jumped 28% over the last six games of the season, according to Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don. The Cardinals only have four outdoor games, with just two of them being in potentially cold weather environments (Week 10 in Seattle and Week 17 in Cincinnati). Rosterwatch noted on their June 30 show that the Cardinals have the 4th easiest strength of schedule for receivers, based on their strength of schedule tool. The almost 23-year-old has no shortage of reasons why things are looking up heading into his second year, while you can draft him at a reduced cost compared to last summer. If the stars align for Harrison’s sophomore season, he could deliver the value his rookie season’s ADP promised.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
2024 ADP: 13
2025 ADP: 25
I go back and forth with whether or not I’m in on Wilson as we approach redraft season. Wilson’s ADP of 13 in 2024 compared to 25 this year isn’t quite the discount I was hoping for considering the situation he finds himself in.
Yes, Justin Fields supported a WR6 season from DJ Moore two years ago in Chicago, but we still have more questions than answers when it comes to Fields cementing himself as a legitimate starting quarterback. Wilson should be peppered with targets, but the Jets have no other proven receiving options that can take some attention away from the fourth-year receiver. The Jets are also expected to be a run-heavy team between Fields and Breece Hall, potentially reducing target opportunities for Wilson. He’s undoubtedly an incredibly talented player and could overcome all the questions I just presented, but at this point, I’d prefer a discount towards the 3-4 turn. If you go Running Back early in the first round, Wilson would potentially be your WR1 based on his ADP, something I’m not in love with. I hope I’m wrong, though, as he’s a fellow lover of Cinnabon.
We can’t ignore the massive 4-year, $130 million contract Wilson signed early this week. He could open his own Cinnabon if he wanted to, but more importantly, it shows the Jets want Wilson to be the cornerstone of their offense. I don’t love drafting players just because they have a hefty contract, but it reinforces how much the Jets value Wilson and indicates they look at him as one of the elite talents across the league. I’d still like a little more of a sale price, but at least any concerns about contract issues, trade rumors, etc., can be put aside.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
2024 ADP: 26
2025 ADP: 63
The Saints’ WR1 comes with no shortage of concerns, but with an almost 40-pick discount compared to last year, we have no choice but to take a serious look at him. Olave suffered two concussions in 2024 and only played in eight games. His quarterback situation is also an issue, with rookie Tyler Shough from Louisville and the incumbent Spencer Rattler likely to battle for the starting job in training camp (if Shough shows up to camp, that is, as he’s yet to sign his contract). Rattler didn’t have a ton of help as a rookie last year, but he also didn’t give us many reasons to think he’s the future for the Saints.
Health and quarterback question marks, however, are being priced into his ADP discount. The main case for Olave is that he’s the clear-cut top receiver in New Orleans. No one else in the receiver room or on the roster should challenge him to be the top target earner. Yes, the team and quarterback situation may be bad, but you’re able to grab the Saints’ top pass-catcher as potentially your third or fourth receiver, depending on your roster build. Rashid Shaheed figures to be the Saints’ number two receiver, but he’s known to be more of a big-play threat and not a player who should cut into Olave’s target share.
In the six full games Olave played in 2024, some of the underlying metrics were positive. His 23.7% target share and 2.13 yards per route run put him 22nd out of 106 receivers who qualified, according to Jared Smola of Draft Sharks. Early on in offseason OTAs, new Saints head coach Kellen Moore also said he expects a “huge impact” from Olave in 2025.
Olave required a premium 2-3 turn pick in 2024, but now that you can get the ultra-talented former first-rounder at a nice sale price, he’s an intriguing option in the middle of your drafts.
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