“What was I thinking drafting that guy?”
It’s inevitable. Whether analyst or Average Joe, we all look back at least a few of our picks with “what ifs” at the end of the season.
But will you be looking back in agony, preparing to perform the league punishment? Or will you be looking back laughing as you lift that League Championship belt like The Rock, shouting “IT DOESN’T MATTER” at any of your league-mates who dare speak to the Final Boss about bad draft picks.
This isn’t your typical, run-of-the-mill busts article. A Fantasy Grenade might be a player being drafted at his ceiling, and you’re buying all the risk. It may be that he’s being drafted late, but his lack of upside makes him just a waste of roster space. I’ll rate each player on a scale of 1 to 5 💥 (we’re calling these grenade blasts because there are no grenade emojis). One 💥 being the least concerning, five 💥💥💥💥💥 being a guy you should completely avoid.
Even the best of us wind up with bad picks and missed calls. But digging deep and identifying potential busts beforehand could be the difference between a Championship and a “One Chip Challenge” punishment.
I’ve done the work to help you avoid the fantasy shrapnel. Below are the quarterbacks I believe are Fantasy Grenades for 2025. Let’s take a look.
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
I actually anticipated writing up Justin Herbert as a flag plant earlier this offseason. But when I got to the research as part of my writing process, I realized Herbert (despite his wonderful smile) was on the wrong list. This isn’t a knock on his talent. I love what Jim Harbaugh is doing for the Chargers from an NFL or “real” football standpoint. Just not from a fantasy football perspective.
“But Herbert just had one of his most efficient seasons ever!” I hear you. The efficiency was great. But at what cost? Herbert’s 7.7 yards per attempt were the highest of his career, and he finished with a QBR over 100 for the first time. However, he averaged fewer than 30 passing attempts for the first time in his career, had just two games with over 300 passing yards, and had more games with 1 or 0 passing touchdowns (9) than with two or more (8).
Career best touchdown-to-interception ratio is great.
Career low three interceptions is great.
Throwing just three more touchdowns in 2024 despite playing in four more games than 2023 is not great.
Herbert’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:
💥💥 (2/5)
Safe-ish pick at QB15, but his ceiling’s capped in the Harbaugh-led Offense. I’d rather C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love for the upside.
Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I had already considered Baker Mayfield for this list before joining Heath Cummings on the Fantasy Football Today Dynasty Podcast, but his talk of touchdown rate made me want to dig into the numbers a bit more.
In 2024, Mayfield had a career-high 7.3% touchdown rate (the number of touchdowns thrown per passing attempt). Not only is that one of the most volatile metrics for a quarterback from year to year, as Heath said, but just four quarterbacks have had a touchdown rate over 7% in the past five seasons (per teamrankings.com): Mayfield and Lamar Jackson last season, with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson the others in 2020.
Over the previous four seasons, Mayfield averaged a 4.5% touchdown rate. Let’s be nice and round that to 5%. With 570 pass attempts, that would put him at 28.5 touchdowns (we’ll be nice again and round it up to 29). That’s a difference of 12 touchdowns between his actual number of 41 in 2024 and what we’d expect based on his typical career touchdown rate. He’d lose 48 points in 4-point passing leagues and 72 points in 6-point passing, and that’s just if his rate is the average of the past four seasons. Mayfield was below 5% in three of the last four seasons (just barely in 2023 at 4.9%).
Touchdown rate wasn’t the only stat Baker produced an outlier in last year. He also had the best competition percentage of his career in 2024 at 71.4%, nearly ten percent higher than the rate of his previous four years (61.9%). Additionally, among quarterbacks with at least 350 pass attempts, he was tied with [REDACTED] (keep reading to the end to find out who!) for the third-highest rate of turnover-worthy throws at 3.7%. This was Mayfield’s lowest TOW throw rate since 2020.
Marlon Humphrey's second INT!
📺: #BALvsTB on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/xMRvyL2qpo— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2024
There are concerns surrounding Mayfield’s supporting cast, as well. Mike Evans is a surefire Hall of Famer, but he’ll be 32 this August. Chris Godwin‘s return to the field is up in the air after a grueling Week 7 dislocated ankle. Even when he returns, he’ll be eased into action, and a return to form is far from a guarantee. Tristan Wirfs, arguably the best LT in the league, just had knee surgery and is expected to miss the start of the season. And with Liam Coen leaving for Jacksonville, the Bucs promoted passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. Tampa is banking on a plug-and-play OC swap, but significant question marks remain; Grizzard has never called plays in the NFL.
Mayfield’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:
💥💥💥💥 (4/5)
An ADP inside the top 10 quarterbacks is a classic overpay after a career season. Mayfield should end up a borderline QB1, but there’s a very real chance Mayfield falls back to mid-QB2 range with the number of outliers in 2024 and question marks heading into 2025.
Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
That redacted guy? The one who tied Baker Mayfield with the third-highest rate of turnover worth throws? Yep. It’s Bo Nix. The two were tied together another way last season, both being incredible values at their ADP. Mayfield was coming off the board as QB21, and Nix was QB23. But just like his buddy Baker, last year’s breakout is driving up the price, and fantasy managers are buying all the risk.
Nix was one of 11 quarterbacks who threw for 25 or more passing touchdowns. Among those 11, Nix ranked eighth in completion percentage (66.3%), passing yards (3,775), tied for the second most interceptions with 12 (Mayfield tied for first with 16), and was last in passing yards per attempt. He didn’t have a 300-yard passing game until Week 11, and he only had one more after that. Nix had 10 passing touchdowns through Week 10, failing to throw a single touchdown in half of the first ten games. Not exactly what you want from a guy being drafted as the eighth quarterback off the board.
What kept him afloat during those lean passing games was his rushing. But that’s what scares me the most. Nix finished inside the top ten in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 430, but not because he ran remarkably well. Nix had a yards per carry of 4.7, which ranked 16th among quarterbacks with at least 25 rushing attempts, behind Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson. That doesn’t matter when you have as many attempts as Nix did last season; he was one of five quarterbacks with at least 90 attempts. But what happens when that number goes down?
Broncos head coach Sean Payton loves using multiple running backs. In his final three seasons as the Saints’ head coach, Payton’s top two backs averaged 319 combined rushing attempts. Last season? His underwhelming top duo of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for just 252 attempts. This season? The Broncos have second-round stud RJ Harvey and recent free agent signing JK Dobbins as their one-two punch.
I expect the running back touches to return closer to the norm for a Sean Payton offense this season, and Nix’s high total rushing attempts to get nixed (sorry).
Will that number drop by 50? I doubt it. But even if it’s just 35, that’s over 164 yards. That would put him behind Daniel Jones last season.
Nix’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:
💥💥💥💥💥 (5/5)
I don’t see a world where Nix finishes inside the top five, so drafting him at QB8 is buying all the risk. Unless his passing numbers improve significantly, a drastic drop in rushing attempts could be devastating for Nix’s fantasy value in 2025. Avoid him at all costs with a top 10 positional ADP.
(Data sourced from FTN Fantasy unless otherwise noted.)
Photo by Dustin Bradford | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)