Fantasy Football Grenades: RB Busts to Avoid in 2025

These aren't the backs you're looking for.

Jay Felicio
Draft Prep 13 Hours Ago

“What was I thinking drafting that guy?”

 

It’s inevitable. Whether analyst or Average Joe, we all look back at least a few of our picks with “what ifs” at the end of the season.

But will you be looking back in agony, preparing to perform the league punishment? Or will you be looking back laughing as you lift that League Championship belt like The Rock, shouting “IT DOESN’T MATTER” at any of your league-mates who dare speak to the Final Boss about bad draft picks.

This isn’t your typical, run-of-the-mill busts article. A Fantasy Grenade might be a player being drafted at his ceiling, and you’re buying all the risk. It may be that he’s being drafted late, but his lack of upside makes him just a waste of roster space. I’ll rate each player on a scale of 1 to 5  💥 (we’re calling these grenade blasts because there are no grenade emojis).  One 💥 being the least concerning, five 💥💥💥💥💥 being a guy you should completely avoid.

Even the best of us wind up with bad picks and missed calls. But digging deep and identifying potential busts beforehand could be the difference between a Championship and a “One Chip Challenge” punishment.

I’ve done the work to help you avoid the fantasy shrapnel.

 

Kyren Williams – Los Angeles Rams

 

In 2023, Kyren Williams was a true league-winner. The waiver wire gem rushed for 1,144 yards on 228 attempts and over 5 yards per carry. He scored a total of 15 touchdowns, and his 11.4% explosive run rate was the 11th highest in the league. 

While he backed up his breakout sophomore season with a second consecutive top-10 fantasy finish, there were concerning signs. His yards per carry dropped nearly a full yard to 4.1. He tied for the most fumbles lost at the position for a second straight season.

While he led the position with a whopping 70 red zone rushes, his 2.8 yards per carry inside the 20 was among the worst (minimum 25 red zone carries). That 11th-best explosive run rate tumbled to 8.5%, the 7th lowest among qualifying running backs. Twelve of his 14 touchdowns were from inside the five. His already minimal passing game usage also took a hit. Williams saw just 40 targets and was bottom five in yards per route run (0.3), yards per reception (4.7), and yards after the catch per reception (5.9). 

Despite the talks of a potential contract extension, head coach Sean McVay is notorious for his lack of loyalty to running backs. The Rams drafted Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 draft and traded up to draft Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round of this year’s draft, so McVay can move to one of them if he decides Williams isn’t the guy anymore.

Williams’ Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥 (3/5)

At 5’9”, 200ish lbs, Williams isn’t exactly built for 300+ touches. With a worrisome dip in per-touch production already in play before the heavy workload, and fumbling issues to boot, drafting Williams as an RB1 is a huge gamble. Let someone else buy all the risk.

 

Aaron Jones Sr – Minnesota Vikings

 

I touched on some of the reasons why I don’t like Jones this season in my RB Flag Plants article, where I was pleading my case for Jordan Mason. Here’s the quick synopsis.

He’s 30, ancient for a running back. In the past 10 seasons, only 14 running backs 30 or older averaged 12+ points per game and played in at least eight games. He was inefficient, including ranking in the bottom 10 in avoided tackle rate, yards after Contact, and explosive run rate among all running backs with at least 150 carries. He totaled -2 yards on 13 carries inside the five, which led to the offensive acquisition of Mason, who KOC has made it clear will handle the short-yard and uber valuable goal-line carries.

But let’s dig a little deeper, shall we?

Jones was one of 12 running backs with over 250 rushing attempts, with 255 (a career high), which sounds fine and dandy until you hear KOC specifically mention cutting back his workload when discussing the acquisition of Mason. Below is how he finished among those twelve in the following eight categories:

Rushing Yards – 9th
Yards Per Carry – 7th
Touchdowns – T-12
Yards Before Contact – 6th
Yards After Contact – 9th
Avoided Tackle Rate – 8th
Explosive Run Rate – 10th
Juke Rate – T-11

Jones finished in the bottom half in seven of the eight, and just barely made the top half in the eighth.

Jones’ Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥💥 (4/5)

Very rarely is there a player that I wouldn’t draft under any circumstances. Aaron Jones is pretty darn close to being that guy this season. The only reason he’s 4/5 is his relatively low acquisition cost. I’ll have zero shares of Jones this season.

 

Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia Eagles

 

No, the reason Saquon Barkley is on this list isn’t because I’m a salty Giants fan. I have proof.

I’ll never root for the Eagles, even if there’s a fire, but I was happy for Barkley. However, the toll of the second-highest workload for a running back ever —482 touches— gives me pause as to what 2025 has in store for his fantasy value.

Saquon became just the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards. The eight before Barkley are made up of mainly Hall of Famers: O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Derrick Henry. Unsurprisingly, none have rushed for 2,000 yards the season after (or any season the rest of their careers). Of the previous eight backs to hit the historic number, only Sanders totaled over 70% of his prior year’s total. Peterson and Johnson, the only other two, totaled at least 60%, while Davis, Henry, and Lewis failed to reach even 50%.

Then there’s the curse. No, not the Madden Curse. The curse of 370. A theory developed way back in 2004 (I was in high school) by the illustrious Aaron Schatz. For the sake of keeping this article under 5000 words, I’ll give you a quick recap: it’s not good. The year a running back attains 370 touches tends to end in one of two ways: injury or a drastic drop in production. Let’s take a look at the last five backs to hit the total.

Derrick Henry’s first 370-touch season was in 2020. He started 2021 on a scorching pace, only to be short by injury. He played in just eight games (and still nearly ran for 1,00 yards). Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris both hit 370 in 2021, Taylor finishing as RB1 overall and Harris RB4. Taylor would play in just 11 games and fall to RB34, while Harris dropped to RB14. It was Josh Jacobs‘ turn in 2022, when he finished as RB3, but he followed up with a finish of RB27, playing in only 13 games. Derrick Henry hit the number again in 2022, finishing as RB4. Because he’s King Henry, he’s the exception to the rule, finishing 2023 as RB8.

Barkley’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥 (3/5)

Would I be surprised to see Barkley repeat as an RB1 in 2025? Not at all. He’s one of the few players worthy of the often-overused term “generational talent.” I could see a world where he finishes as the RB1 overall again. But the name of the game in fantasy football is eliminating as much risk as possible. Based on his historic workload, Barkley turning 28, and playing in 16 games just three times in his career, I’m not comfortable taking Barkley among the top three backs off the board. He’ll more often than not be the first.

 

Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts

 

I thought I’d wind up coming into the draft season with JT on my radar, but not at his current cost.

Taylor finished as an RB1 despite playing in just 14 games, rushing for 1431 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. He’s locked and loaded for another RB1 season, right?

 

 

Context matters. Stats can periodically paint a deceptive picture. A whopping 36% of Taylor’s rushing yards and 55% of his rushing touchdowns came in the season’s final three games. Those three teams? The Titans, Giants, and Jaguars, who finished with three of the five worst records in the NFL. The trio ranked among the top-10 most generous teams in fantasy to the running back position.

 With Anthony Richardson‘s struggles and the Colts’ unstable quarterback situation, it comes as no surprise that Taylor faced one of the highest rates of rushing attempts against a stacked box at 47.5%. That likely remains the same this season, with the only move made at quarterback being the replacement of Joe Flacco with sigh… Daniel Jones.

Taylor’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥💥 (4/5)

While I believe in the talent of Jonathan Taylor significantly more than I do in both Kyren Williams and Aaron Jones, the situation surrounding Taylor is much worse. I’ll be fading JT until if/when his ADP hits the mid-to-high teens at the position. 

 

(Data sourced from FTN Fantasy. Qualifying Running Backs include those with a minimum of 150 carries unless otherwise stated.)

 

 

Photo by Jeffrey Brown | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)