Fantasy Football Grenades: WR Busts to Avoid in 2025

Some big name receivers are being way over-drafted.

Jay Felicio
Draft Prep 4 Weeks Ago

“What was I thinking drafting that guy?”

 

It’s inevitable. Whether analyst or Average Joe, we all look back at least a few of our picks with “what ifs” at the end of the season.

But will you be looking back in agony, preparing to perform the league punishment? Or will you be looking back laughing as you lift that League Championship belt like The Rock, shouting “IT DOESN’T MATTER” at any of your league-mates who dare speak to the Final Boss about bad draft picks.

This isn’t your typical, run-of-the-mill busts article. A Fantasy Grenade might be a player being drafted at his ceiling, and you’re buying all the risk. It may be that he’s being drafted late, but his lack of upside makes him just a waste of roster space. I’ll rate each player on a scale of 1 to 5  💥 (we’re calling these grenade blasts because there are no grenade emojis).  One 💥 being the least concerning, five 💥💥💥💥💥 being a guy you should completely avoid.

Even the best of us wind up with bad picks and missed calls. But digging deep and identifying potential busts beforehand could be the difference between a Championship and a “One Chip Challenge” punishment.

I’ve done the work to help you avoid the fantasy shrapnel. This installment takes a gander at the wonderful world of wide receivers, and there’s a name or two that will likely shock you. 

Jerry Jeudy – Cleveland Browns

Jameis Winston is a national treasure.

How could you not love this guy? His teammates consistently praise his positive presence in the locker room, and he brought the Browns’ offense to life when given the opportunity. Jerry Jeudy (and his fantasy managers) loved that, too.

In the 12 games Winston started last season, Jeudy averaged 7.8 targets, 5.1 receptions, 79.6 receiving yards, and 15.7 yards per reception. Without him, Jeudy averaged 10.2 targets, 5.8 receptions, 54.8 receiving yards, and 9.4 yards per reception.

Despite averaging nearly three more targets and an additional catch when Winston wasn’t on the field, Jeudy’s receiving yards dropped by about 25 yards, and his yards per reception dropped from 15.7 to 9.4. Winston’s love for the YOLO ball meshed well with Jeduys’ skillset. But unfortunately for Jeudy, Winston left for the Giants in free agency.

The Browns’ quarterback room is easily in the running for the worst in the league. It’s a four-way battle with a 40-year-old the clear front runner. Joe Flacco returned to the Browns and likely presents the best chance for Jeudy-like production, but…he’s 40. Then there’s…Kenny Pickett and two rookies, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. You may have heard of him. Technically, Deshaun Watson is still there, but I think he’s played his last snap as a Brown.

 

Jeudy’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥 (3/5)

Could someone emerge from that homely cluster of quarterbacks and play well enough to support Jeudy? Possibly. But I think it’s more likely the Browns are going to be Browns, and it’ll be a QB carousel that’s not conducive to fantasy production for anybody outside of the running backs. An ADP of WR33 isn’t awful, but I’d rather take a shot on the upside on the guys going around him like Chris Olave or Rome Odunze.

 

Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

This one hurts because Chris Godwin is one of my favorite players of the past 10 years or so. He’s helped me win quite a few championships. But considering the circumstances surrounding him, Godwin is another guy who is written on my “do not draft” board in dry-erase marker (because there’s always a place where it’s worth the risk).

The obvious and most prominent looming issue is his return from a devastating ankle fracture suffered in Week 7 of last season that required not just one, but also a recently revealed second surgery. He also fractured his fibula and suffered a torn deltoid ligament. This is his second significant injury since 2021, when he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 15.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that an ankle injury for a professional athlete likely impacts their future performance. But what about a study found on the National Library of Medicine website? I’m not kidding. I found multiple, but the one linked in this article comes to a clear and unfortunate conclusion.

If/when Godwin returns to the field, he’ll be battling more than just age and injury to get back up to form. Add in the emergence of Jalen McMillan last season and the first-round pick spent on Emeka Egbuka, and the Bucs’ wide receiver corps suddenly got real crowded.  

Heath Cummings made a great point when I joined him on the Fantasy Football Today Dynasty Podcast. If we’re boosting expectations for the Jaguars’ offense with Liam Coen and the Bears’ offense with Ben Johnson, it would be negligent not to expect a negative impact on the offenses those individuals are leaving behind. The hope is that things continue to run smoothly without Coen in Tampa, but that’s far from certain.

 

Godwin’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥💥💥 (5/5)

With the news of a second surgery, I expect his ADP to drop from WR35, 74 overall (at the time of writing). I wouldn’t even consider drafting Godwin until outside the top 120 players, and even then, I’d rather take a chance on a player with higher upside and fewer red flags.

 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks

 

One of the most complex skills a fantasy manager has to learn is the ability to adjust their valuation of a player from year to year. Last season, I was all in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The idea of a pass-heavy Ryan Grubb offensive scheme, an aging Tyler Lockett, and an ADP outside the top 40 at the position led me to draft a ton of JSN. It paid off, thanks to a breakout season and top 10 finish, but 2025 is a much different story.

Out at OC is the pass-happy Ryan Grubb, and in is the run-loving Klint Kubiak, who intends to bring back a more balanced attack. Not ideal for a guy whose fantasy production was heavily reliant on volume. His average depth of target was tied with Ja’Marr Chase for 25th among wide receivers with at least 100 targets. Not a bad name to be tied with. Well, let’s compare some of their other metrics.

 

Yards Per Route Run: Chase – 2.5, JSN -2

Yards After The Catch Per Reception: Chase – 6.2, JSN – 4.8

Targets Per Game: Chase – 10.3, JSN – 8.1

End Zone Targets: Chase – 22, JSN – 12

 

I don’t bring these up to win a debate that nobody is having about JSN being anywhere near as talented as Chase. But the stark difference in just a few metrics illustrates how a low aDOT isn’t an issue for a player with as many high-value opportunities and as efficient as Chase.

While a completely different style of player, the addition of Cooper Kupp offsets the loss of DK Metcalf to the Steelers when considering JSN’s value. But I am worried about the quarterback situation.

The Seahawks signed Sam Darnold to replace Geno Smith (who was traded to the Raiders), and I’m wary of his so-called resurrected career. Remember this?

Darnold Struggles under pressure, which we saw in full effect last season. His completion percentage dropped from 66.2% to 49.3% when facing pressure last season. He’s going from one of the best offensive lines in Minnesota to one of the worst in Seattle. He’s leaving Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson behind for JSN, a 32-year-old Cooper Kupp, and lots of question marks at tight end.

Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥 (2/5)

I much prefer Smith-Njigba as a WR3 than as a WR2, which is where he’s projected to go at WR15. Without much target competition outside of Kupp, JSN should still be a target hog overall. However, I expect the volume as an offense to decrease, along with his fantasy production.

 

Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins

 

I understand it’s hard to give up on a guy who finishes as a top-five fantasy receiver in three of the previous five seasons and WR6 in a fourth. Still, I’m frankly shocked at how many people are willing to overlook all the red flags and draft Tyreek Hill as a WR1 (ADP of WR12 at the time of writing).

Wide receivers traditionally start their decline at the age of 30, and Hill turned 31 this offseason. Only 14 wide receivers, aged 30 or older, have played at least 10 games and a minimum of 12 points per game. For 31+, the total drops to six players. Comparing his numbers over the previous two seasons, Hill’s decline started at 30.

Tyreek Hill 2023 vs 2024

Yards Per Target: 2023- 10.5, 2024: 7.9

Yards Per Reception: 2023 – 15.1, 2024- 11.8

Yards After The Catch per Reception: 2023 – 5.5, 2024 – 3.6

Targets Per Game: 2023 – 10.7, 2024 – 7.2

Receptions Per Game: 2023 – 6.5, 2024 – 4.8

Yards Per Route Run: 2023 – 3.9, 2024 – 1.9

Explosive Play Rate (20+ yards): 2023 – 24.4%, 2024 – 16%

 

Some of that can be attributed to injury and the absence of Tua Tagovailoa for a significant portion of the season. But banking on a return to top 10 potential for an aging receiver whose greatest asset is his game-breaking speed is a recipe for disaster.

Hill’s Fantasy Grenade Rating:

💥💥💥💥💥 (5/5)

I’m willing to risk being wrong on this one, and writing Hill’s name in permanent marker on my theoretical do-not-draft list. He’s never going to make it outside the top 20 receivers taking, and I wouldn’t consider drafting him until at least the top 24 or so are gone. 

(Data sourced from FTN Fantasy. Qualifying WRs include a minimum of 75 targets unless otherwise stated.)

 

 

Photo by Peter Joneleit | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)