One of the most significant mistakes a fantasy football manager can make is relying on statistics from past seasons and expecting the same level of production in the future. Box scores don’t show you the stats that aren’t “sticky” from year to year. They don’t take into consideration players wearing new threads and encountering new situations. Context is everything.
Men lie. Women lie. Stats lie.
Let’s look past the box score and break down the misleading stats you need to know before you draft in 2025.
The Case: The Resurrection of Sam Darnold
One of the most shocking developments from last season was the resurrection of Sam Darnold’s career. Far from a guarantee to become the starter, he was handed the reins of the Vikings offense when a torn meniscus cost 10th overall pick JJ McCarthy his rookie season. What happened next leads one to believe that Kevin O’Connell is likely able to walk on water.
Darnold set career highs across the board through the air: 361 completions for 4,319 yards and a 35:12 touchdown to interception ratio. He finished the season as QB9 in total points and a completion percentage of 66.2%, a full five points above his career average. So why didn’t Darnold have to worry about seeing ghosts in Minnesota?
To quote renowned philosopher Hootie (and his blowfish),
“Tiiiii-iiiiiiiiiiiii-iiiiiiime.”
Darnold has historically struggled under pressure. Luckily for him, Minnesota has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. But his problems with pressure remain.
Sam Darnold’s 2024 Splits: Pressure vs No Pressure (per Fantasy Points Data)
When Darnold had over 2.5 seconds before pressure last season, he completed 73.8% of his passes. But when he had 2.5 seconds or less? His completion percentage plummeted to 45.5%. The good news? Darnold parlayed his career year into a payday from the Seattle Seahawks. The bad? Seattle’s offensive line. Let’s compare Minnesota to Seattle in terms of their rankings in pass protection metrics.
Yikes. Seattle was one of the worst pass-blocking units in the entire league. The average time to pressure for their quarterbacks was 2.5 seconds, right at Darnold’s Mason/Dixon line of suckage.
Seattle did make moves in attempts to shore up the o-line, spending the 18th overall pick on guard Grey Zabel and signing veteran Josh Jones to bolster their depth. But even if the line improves, Darnold’s going to see an exponential increase in pressure when he drops back compared to what he saw as a Viking.
The Player: Sam Darnold – QB – Seattle Seahawks
The Stat: Career-best 66.2% completion percentage.
The Lie: Sam Darnold was fixed by QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell.
The Verdict: He was a great story last season, but he’s a full fade for me in 2025. He still crumbles under pressure. I expect we’ll see Jalen Milroe before season’s end.
The Case: 10 Touchdown Terry
The poster boy for “this is his year” finally had his year. Terry McLaurin finished as WR7 in total points and WR16 in points per game. He’s finally got the quarterback that can match his talent. Terry’s a lock for another top ten finish, right?
Well, here’s the thing. Let’s take a look at how Scary Terry did in 2024 compared to some of his career numbers:
McLaurin was right around his career averages, and he didn’t blow past any he surpassed. His targets and yards per catch were actually lower than what he’s done in the past.
What pushed him into the top 10 was catching double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his career. Unfortunately for Scary Terry, things get very scary for receivers the season after they catch 10 or more touchdowns.
JAYDEN DANIELS
TERRY MCLAURIN
86-YARD TOUCHDOWN
😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/Y29DXXD6IL
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 24, 2024
From 2020 to 2024, 18 different wide receivers accounted for 31 instances of a wide receiver catching 10 or more touchdowns. Only six of them able to accomplished the feat in consecutive seasons: Mike Evans (twice: 20-21, 23-24), Davante Adams (three straight seasons, 20-22), Amon-Ra St. Brown (23-24), Adam Thielen (20-21), Stefon Diggs (21-22), and DK Metcalf (20-21). Of the 18 pass catchers who have a season of 10+ receiving touchdowns over that period, eight of them were unable to do it again. Seven wide receivers have a chance to do it in consecutive seasons in 2025: McLaurin, Evans, St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, and Brian Thomas Jr. Based on history (seven back-to-back seasons / 31 separate occurrences), three of the seven are what we are most likely to see. Of those seven, I’d rank McLaurin last in likelihood of it happening.
WRs with 10+ receiving touchdowns 2020-2024 (per StatHead)
The Player: Terry McLaurin – WR – Washington Commanders
The Stat: 10 receiving touchdowns
The Lie: Terry McLaurin is finally a locked-in WR1 with Jayden Daniels as his quarterback.
The Verdict: Besides touchdowns, McLaurin’s stats were on par with his career averages. Based on historical evidence, there’s a less than 30% chance he repeats 10+ touchdowns. His ceiling remains a WR2.
The Case: The Plodding Bellcow
At the time of writing, the Los Angeles Rams and Kyren Williams were amid contract negotiations. Williams is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and wants to get paid. Completely understandable. But the Rams see what I see, and I fully co-sign their hesitation to pay him the big bucks. Williams’ numbers are impressive, but his efficiency and explosiveness are not.
Yes, he’s gone over the century mark in back-to-back seasons. But my 6-year-old son is more of an explosive runner. In 2024, he had the 2nd-lowest explosive run rate (1.9%), just six runs of 15+ yards, and only two runs over 20 yards. He’s not built to handle a heavy workload. Williams averaged 2.09 yards after contact last season (third worst in the NFL) and over the past two seasons has had only six total games where he averaged over five yards per carry. He’s had just 12 total games over 4.5 ypc over the same period.
Rams head coach Sean McVay is infamous for his willingness to move on from running backs and has drafted a running back in the first three rounds in each of the past two NFL drafts. Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter are both more than capable, and early into training camp, Hunter is getting a whole lot of buzz.
The Player: Kyren Williams
The Stat: Back-to-back 1,000+ yard rushing seasons.
The Lie: Williams is the unquestioned bellcow back for the Rams, and is headed for a third straight 1,000-yard season.Â
The Verdict: His lack of explosiveness and efficiency, as well as the involvement of Corum and Hunter, spells immense bust potential.
(Photo by Mark Goldman | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X))