By the grace of God, we’re about to enter the heart of fantasy draft season. There’s nothing quite like putting stickers on a board in a backyard, for those that have the live draft experience, or feeling the pressure of the clock ticking down for your pick on your favorite fantasy football site. Since our long-awaited drafts are closely on the horizon, we can’t just focus on the early rounds littered with superstars. Who are we going to take in the back end of the drafts to fill out our rosters? The easy, and maybe lazy, answer is guys with upside, but it goes a bit beyond that. Outside of rookies, I’m using the late-rounds to target players who do have a high ceiling if certain things break their way, but also have flashed success and proven they have it in them to be real fantasy contributors. For a variety of reasons their price is cheap, whether it be recent injuries or guys in front of them on the depth chart, but each player here has at least flashed the ability to help your fantasy team at some point in their career, outside of the one rookie mentioned.
All ADP data is courtesy of fantasypros.com, as of August 16th.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAC), ADP 124.7: Lawrence is the perfect example of why I’m more than okay with waiting on quarterback in 2024. I can’t argue that last season was a disappointment, but let’s not forget that 2023 was littered with injuries for Lawrence. From a mid-season knee bruise to a high ankle sprain, concussion and shoulder sprain all in December, the former #1 overall pick was literally limping to the finish line. A hopefully healthier 2024 season along with a nice group of weapons makes his 11th-round ADP in full-point PPR leagues one of the better values across drafts. Even with all the health issues he battled last season Lawrence still came away with 339 yards on the ground, adding an element that most late-round QBs this year don’t give (i.e. Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers). Lawrence’s ADP one year ago was in the 5th round, making his price this season a significant discount. Outside of losing Calvin Ridley, Lawrence has a collection of pass catchers that complement each other well, from his trusted options in Evan Engram and a healthy Christian Kirk, to big-play deep-threat targets in Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas.
Jaylen Wright (RB, MIA), ADP 155.0: As the 155th player off the board, on average, the rookie from the University of Tennessee truly possesses the nuclear upside we should all be looking for in the late rounds. Yes, he’ll likely need an injury to De’Von Achane or Raheem Mostert to get consistent touches, but if that happened, would it be so shocking? Achane dealt with injuries as a rookie and has a frame that will make it tough for him to carry a huge workload, and Mostert is 32 years old. Wright is a play away from playing a huge role in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. The North Carolina native didn’t just fall into the Dolphins’ lap either. They made him a priority by moving up in the draft for him in the 4th round and parting with a 2025 3rd-round pick, which is noteworthy considering they did that for a day 3 pick.
Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF), ADP 139.0: Continuity is the key reason behind picking Shakir. With the losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills have a massive amount of vacated targets up for grabs. Sure, they traded up for Keon Coleman, but he’s still just a rookie. Newly acquired WR Curtis Samuel had success under current offensive coordinator Joe Brady while they were both in Carolina, but he’s never commanded a significant amount of targets throughout his career. That leaves Shakir as the only member of the receiver room who has a background with Josh Allen. He’s also flashed his ability to create explosive plays, as the below video indicates. Shakir ranked second among all receivers in fantasy points per target, according to playerprofiler.com. With a greater target share, this number could understandably regress, but the point is that Shakir has been extremely productive with the targets he’s been given. The Boise State product could legitimately be Josh Allen’s #1 WR, yet you can currently draft him as the 52nd receiver at pick 128 overall.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL), ADP 177: The one true TE handcuff in the NFL, Likely doesn’t go off the board until pick 177. He’s a no-brainer choice if you decide to invest in Mark Andrews, but he may have some standalone value without needing an injury to Andrews. Baltimore didn’t make any significant additions to the receiver room, and Likely was quoted this off-season as saying he’ll be all over the field. Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken spoke about Likely’s role expanding and mentioned he expects him to have a great year. In terms of advanced metrics, there are some positive signs for the Coastal Carolina product. Likely was #9 among TEs in fantasy points per route, and #1 in fantasy points per target, according to playerprofiler.com. The arrow is clearly pointing up for Likely despite his clearance-sale type of draft price.
Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL), ADP 204: Falcons brass made Mooney a priority signing after inking him to a 3-year $39 million contract early in free agency. The deep-threat speedster is the perfect complement to Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who likely will dominate targets in the intermediate areas of the field. While 2023 was a down year in terms of productivity and efficiency, Mooney averaged over two yards per route run in both 2021 and 2022, which was top 25 among all wideouts each year (according to playerprofiler.com). Playing with Kirk Cousins is the best situation he’s had at quarterback, and while we never like injuries, Rondale Moore going down for the season takes away another competitor for targets. Mooney gives you a great combination of a guy with high-end upside who we’ve already seen have success in his career.
Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)
