Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 4

49ers vs. Chargers

49ers

The 49ers head south to take on the Los Angeles Chargers one week after losing their franchise quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. Backup QB C.J. Beathard earned the adoration and respect of his teammates last year by showing gutsy play, toughness behind a sieve of an O-line, and moxy in the face of adversity. That being said, the gap behind Beathard and Garoppolo is significant, and this game will go a long way in telling whether or not the 49ers can produce any fantasy-relevant skill position players moving forward.

Can C.J. Beathard lead a productive passing attack?

The simple, and perhaps surprising, answer is yes. Beathard already possesses a strong rapport with breakout TE George Kittle from their days at Iowa, and WR Marquise Goodwin had already begin to develop into a complete receiver with Beathard under center before Garoppolo came over from New England (though, it was Jimmy G who catapulted him into WR1/2 status down the stretch last year). Beathard knows HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and the O-line is much improved after last season’s construct forced the young QB to earn his stripes by being a veritable punching bag to garner respect. He’s a smart, pro-style quarterback who will need to play over his head for the 49ers to compete most weeks, but he can run the offense competently. The 49ers offense will almost certainly not realize its potential without Garoppolo tossing the rock, but Beathard should play well enough for everyone to maintain much of their value rest of season.

Will the team lean on the run in Garoppolo’s absence?

HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense is predicated on creative mismatches and the play-action. A strong run game is the foundation of his scheme, so the insertion of Beathard won’t change the scheme as much as it will affect opposing defenses’ approach in response. Odds are good that the Chargers will stack the line and force Beathard to beat them, so the 49ers may take to the air aggressively initially, if only to push the Chargers’ front seven back and force them to respect the pass. Beathard was far more apt to pass to RBs than Garoppolo has been, as Jimmy G was more proficient as attacking downfield with his quick release and accurate placement. Beathard struggles to push the ball downfield, and he doesn’t have the pocket awareness that Garoppolo possesses, which usually leads to more check-downs. Expect the 49ers to lean on RBs Matt Breida and Alfred Morris to keep the Chargers’ potent offense off the field as much as possible. The Chargers are a bottom 10 run defense, allowing 4.3 YPC to opposing backs and  120.3 YPG, so Breida and Morris are set up well for a productive week despite the loss of Garoppolo. Breida, especially, has had over 100 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks, quickly playing himself into the RB2 discussion as one of the NFL’s leading rushers in the early going this season. His league-leading 5.2 yards-per-carry before contact show how efficient he’s been behind the 49ers revamped O-line.

Who are the best bets in the 49ers passing game this week and beyond?

As mentioned beforehand, TE George Kittle should remain a focal point in the offense as long as the 49ers receivers struggle to separate and win against man coverage. Beathard targeted Kittle on his first pass in relief of Garoppolo inside the red zone against Kansas City, connecting on what should have been a TD had a bogus offensive pass interference penalty not been called on FB Kyle Juszczyk, a player Shanahan may exploit moving forward due to his versatility.  However, this week the Chargers present a stiff test, as they’ve only allowed 7 total catches to TEs through the first four games, and that includes a matchup with TE Travis Kelce. Both Marquise Goodwin and Kittle failed to secure more than 50% of their targets from Beathard a year ago, so their success truly hinges on how much Beathard has developed since then. WR Pierre Garcon remains a low-volume, chain-moving possession receiver with low upside, and the other options in the 49ers passing game should not be considered until it becomes clear whether or not Beathard can support one, let alone multiple, options in through the air.

Will the defense take the next step?

It won’t be easy against the Chargers’ elite offensive personnel. Thus far, the 49ers are a bottom-5 passing defense, and they will be without starting CB Richard Sherman this week. They’re allowing 288 YPG to opposing quarterbacks, and they have yet to record a single interception through 3 games this season. Stud LB Reuben Foster returned to form what should be a solid young linebacking core with rookie LB Fred Warner, who was seemingly drafted as insurance against Foster’s volatile off-field behavior. The 49ers’ run defense is a top-5 unit when it comes to limiting yards to opposing rushers, as not a single back has cleared 50 yards across the season’s first 3 games. That being said, with their secondary currently a sieve, teams don’t have to march far on the ground to rumble into the end zone, as Chiefs’ RB Kareem Hunt showed with his two scores last week. Expect the 49ers to show up and limit Chargers’ RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler on the ground, but both backs should remain productive in the receiving game and are solid bets to score through the air. QB Philip Rivers and WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should feast through the air, especially in the red zone, as the 49ers figure to play catch up for most of the game.

Final Thoughts

The 49ers are a team trying to tread water after losing their star quarterback for the year. Their playoff hopes have certainly been dashed, but it remains to be seen what this team is capable of with backup QB C.J Beathard under center. Unlike most backups, who are either well past their prime or are young and lack game experience, Beathard remains squarely in his prime and should not feel any game day jitters after starting six games last season, topping 240 yards and a TD in half of them while also rushing for 136 yards and 3 TDs as well. Whether via his legs or arm, Beathard scored at least 1 TD in every game he started last year. Shanahan hand-picked Beathard for a reason, and while the offense will most assuredly take a step back without Garoppolo, the narrative that the 49ers offense is sunk might be a premature until we see what Beathard can do with game experience and a second offseason installing Shanahan’s offense, all while building more chemistry with largely the same roster.

-Paul Ghiglieri

Chargers

After the Chargers tough loss to the Chiefs in week 1, I looked ahead to the Bills and was confident that it would be a game that got the Chargers on track.  Here the Chargers sit at 1-2, coming off another tough loss to a very good team, and they have another great matchup to keep the losing streak at 1.

What is the outlook for Rivers this week? Is he a top 5 QB this week?

Philip Rivers is a top 5 QB this week. The 49ers defense does not have enough talent to stop the skill players of the Chargers. Although the offensive line has struggled, the ability of the receivers to simply get open has made Philip Rivers an elite fantasy quarterback. Richard Sherman was playing well in the secondary but his injury leaves them incredibly thin in the secondary. This game should be a blowout with the Chargers being more talented at nearly every position. The defense has allowed enough points in the first few games to keep the offense throwing the ball but this week might be the exception. If the game gets out of hand quickly, Rivers volume might be lower than desired. Either way, he remains a safe, potentially explosive option this week which makes him a top 5 QB.

Fantasy Expectations:

Philip Rivers: 280 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int

Can Mike Williams continue to dominate?

Let’s start with the positives for Mike Williams. First, in week two and three, Williams ran the same amount of routes as both Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams. He is on the field when the Chargers pass which is a huge step forward. Second, he is emerging as an end zone target. Whether it has been shots from the 30 yard line or short throws inside the 10 it is obvious that Rivers is looking his way. Third, he has produced when he has been on the field! Williams has proved more than worthy of the extra playing time as he leads the team in yards per route run. You may not be familiar with this stat but it is a good indicator of wide receiver performance. If you are getting open and catching passes your yards per route run will increase. What really hurts this statistic is when you do not get open and get 0 yards on that given route. So this stat can loosely be seen as how often does the receiver get open and catch the ball. The point of all this, not even considering the touchdown catches, Williams has been arguably the best option in this offense. So what are the negatives? Any player that is the second option in an offense will always take a backseat to the number 1. If Keenan Allen is open, he is getting the ball. Not to mention the heavy usage of Melvin Gordon in this offense as well. Even with these two studs, there are enough points to go around to keep Williams useful. He is a strong flex consideration this week and is trending toward WR2 status.

Fantasy Expectations:

Mike Williams: 6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD

Keenan Allen: 10 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD

Tyrell Williams: 2 catches, 15 yards

Is Austin Ekeler worth a start this week?

If you are considering starting Austin Ekeler this week you are probably in a deep league. This matchup will be good for Ekeler, just like it is for every other Chargers player because the 49ers defense is bad. If the Chargers turn this into a blowout as expected, Ekeler could get a lot more touches. This game could be perfect for Ekeler because the Chargers will have no incentive to run Melvin Gordon if they are up 20 in the 4th quarter. He has been extremely impressive in limited touches which means a higher usage game could lead to solid fantasy production. This makes him an interesting DFS play this week as well.

Fantasy Expectations:

Melvin Gordon: 15 carries, 60 yards, 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards

Austin Ekeler: 11 carries, 60 yards; 3 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD

-Stephen Dudas