Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 4

Chiefs vs. Broncos

Chiefs

This week the white-hot Kansas City Chiefs offense, led by rookie QB Patrick Mahomes, travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Monday Night Football. The undefeated Chiefs are 17-2 against AFC West in the Andy Reid era, including three straight in Mile High. Let’s take a look at the match-up and what to expect from your fantasy players.

Patrick Mahomes is the fantasy MVP of the young season, what more can he show us this week?

This will be the toughest test yet for the young star. Denver is a division opponent and they will be at home, one of the toughest places to play. Add the national TV audience and all things point to a tough week. Mahomes is a must-start player until he proves otherwise and I will be glued to the screen to see how he responds. Should he pass this test, there may not be any limits for Mahomes.  

Can we trust Kareem Hunt this week or should we be looking for his replacement?

Denver has a rock solid run defense, #5 in rush DVOA, giving up just 77 yards a game on the ground. RB Kareem Hunt has been unproductive in the passing game, likely more to say about the type of QB Mahomes is and not as much Hunt’s talent catching the ball. This week I would recommend sitting Hunt if you have a better option. At the least, he should be in your FLEX spot if you need to play him. Since this is a MNF game, having that flexibility to replace Hunt if needed will help.

Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins draw some tough matchups this week. Are they still safe plays for owners?

Both WR Tyreek Hill and WR Sammy Watkins have even CB matchups this week and should both be in your lineups. So far through three weeks, both players have performed as a starter, top 24 or better, in 2 of 3 weeks. Hill has the obvious upside for monster performances but both should have your trust. With touchdown potential any week of the season both will have ups and downs but both are solid options in this first week of byes.  

What should we expect from Travis Kelce this week?

Denver is allowing 77 yards per game to TEs and allowing 14+ points a game to the fantasy position. While about league average they have not faced a player like TE Travis Kelce. On a national stage, against a division rival, Kelce will show up big. Kelce is hot right now and Mahomes looks like he can recognize the miss match he has in his tight end.

-Marc Salazar

Broncos

The Denver Broncos looked a lot more like ponies than broncos in their week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Offseason savior Case Keenum has looked worse by the game, and the once vaunted Denver D got sliced up by the certifiably NOT ELITE Joe Flacco. Within their clearly poor performance, several fine catches and rushes, and combinations of both by Demaryius Thomas, Royce Freeman, and Emmanuel Sanders represented a slight silver lining in an otherwise dismal effort. This weekend, the ponies gallop home to face a Chiefs team that has looked like a true juggernaut through the first three weeks of the season, both in terms of scoring points, and in allowing opponents to score. How then will the Broncos counter this explosive offense? Let’s dig in and find out…

Case in Turning Point?

Like this paragraph’s opening title/joke, Broncos QB Case Keenum is awful….right now. He has two more interceptions than TD’s on the season and has posted a QBR lower than 70 in each of his past two games. No, it’s not Brock Osweiler bad, but it’s still pretty bad. As evinced by his masterful 2017 season, Keenum has the raw talent to live up to his $18 million per year contract, but he clearly has not through the first three weeks of the season. Is it the coaching staff’s playcalling, or a lack of chemistry, or even Keenum himself that has brought about this Mr. Hyde-esque (not the good one on the Browns) performance? I’m of the opinion that it’s a little bit of each, but these are not un-fixable and whatddya know, the Keenum gets arguably the worst defense in the NFL this season this week. With the opportunity to sling the rock a bit more and expand the playbook beyond run, prototypical short pass, and prototypical screen pass or deep pass, I think Keenum bounces back in a big way this week. Look for the former Viking to post some solid numbers in this one.

Can the Dynamic Duo Cash In?

Lindsay or Freeman? Freeman or Lindsay? Devontae Booker? Well let’s not get CRAZY here. It remains to be seen, between Phillip Lindsay’s hyper-productive week 2 performance, and his, uh, not so productive week 3 (he was ejected for those unfamiliar with the situation), the jury is out on what type of role the coaching staff would like the fiery 5th round rookie to have. However, his counterpart, Royce Freeman, appears to have a very stable role as the rough-and-tough ground back for the Broncos, used more while ahead than behind in games. For this reason alone, my bet would be on Phillip Lindsay not dominating touches in this one but seeing the clear lion’s share out opportunities out of the backfield. Look for the Broncos to utilize Freeman primarily in the first and second quarters as they attempt to keep Patrick Mahomes and dynamic Chiefs offense off of the field, while Lindsay sees the majority of work in the second half, spelled occasionally by Devontae Booker.

Who’s “The Man” Out Wide?

Well, actually, no one. Most fantasy sites will tend to label a “guy you want to own” from a certain team as a receiver emerges who is most productive, most targeted, or both. In the Broncos case, their most productive receiver has very clearly been Emmanuel Sanders; however a brief look at the team’s target distribution shows Demaryius Thomas has actually received three more targets this season than Sanders (26 to Sanders’ 23). That being said, I think each receiver’s projected output will certainly depend on game flow just as much as Keenum’s affinity for passing to either guy. In what looks to be a shoot-out on Monday night for the Broncos, expect the ball to be heading into the hands of these two studs A LOT, with a slight edge to Sanders given talented CB Kendall Fuller will likely be manning the slot in this one and thus covering Demaryius. I like BOTH guys to produce very well, both on Monday night and for the rest of the season, and Thomas could be a very nice buy-low right now. Oh, and don’t forget the talented rookie, Courtland Sutton, and the now lone TE in Denver Jake Heuerman picking up the scraps behind the aforementioned duo. Both players should see a similar uptick in targets and opportunities given the projected flow of this game, as well as the recent season-ending injury to TE Jake Butt.

The Defense?

Don’t do it, man. Just don’t.

Prediction Time!

Alright guys, believe it or not, I’m going with the Broncos in this one. Look for Keenum to hop right back onto the wagon and get rolling right away, slinging the rock successfully to Sanders, Sutton, and Thomas. The run game should limit Patty Mahomes’ chances to burn this talented defense, and when the chips go down late in the fourth quarter, Von Miller will make mincemeat of this mediocre Chiefs O-line.

Case Keenum: 29/42, 355 yards, 3 TDs

Emmanuel Sanders: 6 rec, 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 car, 12 yards

Demaryius Thomas: 8 rec, 95 yards, 1 TD

Courtland Sutton: 4 rec, 55 yards

Jake Heuerman: 5 rec, 45 yards, 1 TD

Royce Freeman: 16 car, 90 yards, 1 TD

Phillip Lindsay: 10 car, 48 yards, 5 rec, 50 yards

Devontae Booker: 2 rec, 16 yards

-Alex Silverman