49ers vs. Cardinals
49ers
C.J. Beathard will likely be in ball-control mode
A turnover machine since taking over as starter, QB C.J. Beathard gets to take on an Arizona defense that’s allowing a league-leading 148.3 YDS/G on the ground. Beathard has started 4 games, and the 49ers are an abysmal -13 in turnover differential during that span, worst in the league. Having lost to the Cardinals at home already in Week 5, HC Kyle Shanahan will almost surely look to pound the rock and try not to over-expose the turnover-prone Beathard in a game the 49ers can, and should, win. Arizona’s defense is giving up about 233.9 YDS/G to opposing quarterbacks, which ranks in the bottom half of the league, but they can get after signal callers with 20 sacks on the year, good for 8th best in the league. Beathard does not leave the pocket often, as PFF detailed how Shanahan has opted to keep Beathard contained in the pocket with 89.4% of Beathard’s passes coming after a straight drop back. All of this makes Beathard an unappealing streamer this week.
The 49ers look to prioritize a run heavy approach on the road
As mentioned before, the Cardinals boast one of the worst run defenses in football, so RBs Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert would figure to get the ball plenty. However, Breida didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so his availability for the game remains in doubt. If Breida were to miss the game, Mostert would be a low-end RB2 with a favorable matchup and game script that should be run-centric, while RB Alfred Morris and FB Kyle Juszczyk would be desperation RB4 dart throws unless the 49ers somehow got up to a big lead and used Morris to salt the clock. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals have allowed a rushing TD in every game this season, so whoever gets the most run in this game should be able to produce, with Mostert appearing to be the most likely back to lead the team in touches if Breida is declared out. Mostert has racked up 146 yards on 19 carries so far this season.
George Kittle should remain a high-floor play
TE George Kittle has already established himself as an elite TE, and the numbers back that up. Kittle is currently PFF’s highest graded TE and leads all WR and TEs with 359 yards-after-the-catch among pass catchers with more than 22 receptions. That amounts to a brilliant 11.2 YAC per reception. Against Arizona in Week 5, Kittle caught 5 passes for 83 yards on 7 targets, and he should continue to be a focal point of the passing attack.
The 49ers receivers offer little value in a tough matchup
The team’s best WR Marquise Goodwin will likely draw a lot of CB Patrick Peterson, who has been tremendous this season at shutting down the opposition, so it will take a big play for Goodwin to deliver. The Cardinals can be attacked in the slot, where CB Budda Baker has struggled to adjust after converting over from safety, and WR Trent Taylor did have 7 receptions for 61 yards and a TD against this same Cardinals defense in Week 5. That being said, starting Taylor is an option for only the truly desperate.
The defense offer streaming value
The 49ers defense has not been a stellar unit, but the Cardinals’ offense has been atrocious. Ironically, the only game Arizona scored more than 17 points was against this 49ers unit in Week 5, although the team was still reeling from the loss of Garoppolo and may not have taken the underdog Cardinals seriously enough at the time given it was only QB Josh Rosen’s second career start at the time. That won’t be the case this week, especially after getting demolished by the Rams last week and looking to reassert themselves in the division and avoid finishing in the cellar. DT DeForest Buckner currently ranks in the top-5 among interior defensive lineman when it comes to total pressures, and Rosen struggled mightily last week against Denver, tossing 3 picks in a blowout. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals fired OC Mike McCoy, and Bruce Arians acolyte Byron Leftwich will make his debut as a play caller, so it’s unclear what the Cardinals’ offense will look like, though it almost certainly will revolve around making better use of star RB David Johnson running outside the tackles and getting more involved as a receiver. Despite the uncertainty, the 49ers should be able to contain the Cardinals better than they did in Week 5.
Boom: George Kittle
Bust: Marquise Goodwin
Sleeper: Raheem Mostert
-Paul Ghiglieri
Cardinals
HE’S GONE. HE’S FINALLY GONE.
Mike McCoy is no longer in charge. In steps former quarterback Byron Leftwich and a hopeful look back to the successful seasons of Bruce Arians.
Will David Johnson finally piece it together?
Everything looks to be lining up for the high draft choice who has delivered a slow start to the season. Then again, the same story was heard last week. With a change of personnel at the helm, David Johnson should at least find his role trending towards that of his breakout season. Leftwich has made note of the time he spent with Arians, and an underwhelming 49ers defense creates new opportunity. A mid-season change in both quarterback and offensive coordinator spells trouble for the passing game, hopefully creating more opportunity for the rushing attack.
Do the Cardinals’ have another big performance in store?
Only a week removed from back-to-back efforts where the Cardinals’ delivered among the league’s best, there is ample potential for this unit. San Francisco has struggled without Jimmy Garoppolo (predictably), and health concerns to the backfield have slowed the rushing attack – that goes two ways, as the new trio of backs all offer upside. Arizona was sacking the quarterback at a higher rate during their two big games, something that should continue against the 49ers. A safe bet for a couple turnovers, this group serves as a decent replacement for the bye week defenses.
A word of caution for this passing game.
Josh Rosen has looked like a rookie for much of the season, and a new offensive coordinator means there is nothing concrete in this offense at the moment. Christian Kirk has been a valuable big play option, and Larry Fitzgerald still has a knack for finding space. Two decent FLEX options, there are too many unknowns surrounding the aerial attack at present.
-Michael Collins