Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 1

Rams vs. Raiders

Rams

Jared Goff

With 24 games under his belt, there seems to be enough to warrant an accurate judgement. Jared Goff is…very good. He can command an offense in any situation, albeit a rough playoff debut, and can hit every throw. He went from being a 54% thrower in just seven games during the 2016 season to 62% in a full 2017. This year he has the added help of Brandin Cooks, an immediate upgrade over Sammy Watkins. Having the reigning POY in Todd Gurley II doesn’t hurt either. On top of all that, now he doesn’t have to gameplan for Khalil Mack. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets to go through each progression twice every time he drops back.

Expectation:

Jared Goff: 25/35, 311 yards, 2 Touchdowns

Todd Gurley II

Recently I have been hearing murmurs about Gurley regressing back towards his 2016 sophomore slump numbers. I say nay. Quit the slander. This guy is for real. He can catch the ball now. He’s got power, the balance and vision to keep trending toward consistent dominance. This matchup should be a nice springboard for the other 15 games – get physical, push a weaker team around, stiff arm a corner and hit the end zone a couple times. This will be his first time facing Oakland, but that shouldn’t matter. This time last year, he only racked up 40 yards rushing. However, he then caught some passes and turned in 56 more yards through the air. He will surely trump those numbers come Sunday.

Expectation:

Todd Gurley II: 20/112, 1 Touchdown, 4 catches for 43 yards, 1 Touchdown

Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp

5’10”, 183 lbs. Three 1,000+ yard seasons in less than four seasons. You tell me where the weakness is. He’s a small speedster that can run any route from any position on the field. The one caveat is that his quarterbacks have been Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Jared Goff is naturally a slight drop-off in terms of pedigree and sustainable, excellent production. But who’s to say Goff can’t elevate Cooks to similar numbers? The Rams sport an extremely dynamic offense. All receivers they play can and does run every kind of route – short, medium, deep. Cooks fits in perfectly for this role. He automatically slides in as a viable top option in this offense because of his abilities. Against the Raiders, who were in the bottom-third of the league in defending the pass, Cooks should be able to roast all and anybody who guards him.

Cooper Kupp led the Rams in receiving last season [pause while you pick yourself off the floor]. Yes, it’s true. The rookie who spent most of his time lined

Expectation:

Brandin Cooks: 5/87 yards, 1 Touchdown, 1/12 yards rushing

-Joe Hanretty

Raiders

Derek Carr

Make no mistake: the Oakland offense will run through Derek Carr this season. I have heard many people take the quote from Gruden at the Scouting Combine out of context about trying to “throw back the game to 1998.” He was speaking about analytics, not his offense. In fact, Gruden and Carr have been working very closely this preseason to make sure they are always on the same page.

Last year was a down year for Carr. He battled an injury to his back early in the season, however, he was able to play in all but one game last year. He averaged 233 yards per game last year which was right around the league average. Carr is not an extremely accurate passer, once again right around the league average. He finished 21st in fantasy points last season behind Josh McCown. Very disappointing considering his QB15 performance in 2016.

I think Carr is a QB2 with upside this year. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t have him as either a QB2 this week or having much upside going up against the new and extremely talented Rams secondary and pass rush. Carr should probably be avoided in even 2 quarterback leagues since there are good streaming options this week.

Year/Team	G	PYds/G	Att	Comp %	aDot	PACR
2017/OAK	15	233.1	515	62.7%	8.6	76%
2016/OAK	15	262.5	560	63.8%	8.1	92%
2015/OAK	16	249.2	573	61.1%	8.5	83%

***All Stats are provided by Pro Football Reference, Airyards.com, and Pro Football Focus

Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch may have been a steal for you in your fantasy draft. His overall ADP, according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, finished the drafting season at the beginning of the fifth round (5.4), but as little as a month ago you could have gotten him in the middle of the seventh (7.6).

While Lynch isn’t the RB1 he used to be, he very well could be a high floor RB2 with TD upside this season. Behind a solid offensive line, Beast Mode’s running style fits the hard-nosed grind it out mentality of his new coach. When given a consistent amount of carries, Lynch has been a solid back as evidenced by his final three games last season. Owners should hope that he stays healthy enough not to cede some of those carries to Doug Martin.

The matchup against the Rams is not ideal for Lynch. While the offensive line is one of the top-10 units in the league according to ProFootballFocus.com, the defensive line he will be running into is also one of the best. Profootballfocus.com has the Rams defensive line ranked top 5 this season in generating pressure. As talented as the Rams are in the trenches, they are just as stacked in the secondary so it will be picking your poison. Look for the Raiders to play to their strengths and not shy away from running the ball. I have Lynch as a low-end RB2/Flex and am hoping he can make it to the Rams much weaker second level on a few runs to tally up the yards.

Year/Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Targ/G
2017/OAK	15	13.8	59.4	2.1
2015/OAK	7	15.9	59.6	3
2014/SEA	16	17.5	81.6	2.6

***All Stats are provided by Pro Football Reference, Airyards.com, and Pro Football Focus

Doug Martin

Doug Martin should not be in your fantasy lineups this week. That being said, if you are an owner pay close attention to his usage. He shouldn’t get enough carries this week to be relevant even in your flex spot, however, he looked good against Jacksonville this preseason. He showed the ability to run and catch out of the backfield. Without a clear path to volume, other than a Lynch injury or benching, he will be one to avoid for now.

Year/Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Targ/G
2017/TAM	11	12.5	36.9	1.6
2016/TAM	8	18	52.6	2
2015/TAM	16	18	87.6	2.8

***All Stats are provided by Pro Football Reference, Airyards.com, and Pro Football Focus

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper had an unproductive year last year. He averaged 3 catches for 49 yards last season. He did score a career-high 7 touchdowns, but also tied for third in the league with 10 drops. It’s a year I’m sure he would like to forget.

This week is the beginning of a new season and a turning of the page for Cooper. The good news is that Amari is the number 1 receiver and historically Coach Jon Gruden’s number one receiver gets opportunities. According to Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, Cooper worked best out of the slot last year and Gruden wants to move him around the line of scrimmage to try and get him the best opportunities to get the ball. Look for Cooper to have a bounce-back year.

The Rams will present a great test for Cooper as he will be forced to compete against three high performing corners no matter where he is lined up on the field. One of the best predictors of success is targets, however, and look for Amari to get his fair share as the Raiders will try to find a way to attack star-studded Rams defense. Even with the tough matchup, Cooper should be considered a solid WR2 this week.

Year/Team	G	Targ/G	aDoT	%TeamTarg.	RACR	Rec/G	Y/G	PPR FP/G
2017/OAK	14	6.9	11.6	17.2	61%	3.4	48.6	11.2
2016/OAK	16	8.3	10.10	22.1%	88%	5.2	72.1	14.1
2015/OAK	16	8.1	11	21.5%	75%	4.5	66.9	13.4

***All Stats are provided by Pro Football Reference, Airyards.com, and Pro Football Focus

Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson makes the move from green and yellow to Silver and Black this week. The move to get Nelson as the Raiders WR2 is just one of the offseason moves that puzzled many fans this year. Many believe that Jordy is on the tail end of his career, not in his prime and definitely not ascending to greater heights.

One of the biggest knocks on Nelson over the last few seasons has been his inability to create separation. He has always been a receiver whose game is predicated on speed and great hands. If Nelson has lost the main weapon he used to get separation and get open, then you are going to get diminished results. The data on Jordy, however, says otherwise. According to Josh Hermsmeyer’s look into Nelson’s NFL NextGen Stats, when measuring Nelson’s speed on the field from the 2016 season versus the subpar 2017 season, there was no discernible difference. Hermsmeyer also points out that he still scored 6 touchdowns last year despite Aaron Rodgers’ injury. Jordy may be a sneaky play this year.

Nelson is going to have to prove he still has his speed in the season opener. He will need it to get open against the Rams secondary. Jordy, like Cooper, plays well out of the slot. Look for him to get moved around to try and create mismatches this week too. With the tough matchup, I have Nelson in flex territory only this week depending on your options. I do believe that he is the Raiders best red zone target so he may get some opportunities to score a touchdown. Be very cautious to start him in the flex this week.

Year/Team	G	Targ/G	aDoT	%TeamTarg.	RACR	Rec/G	Y/G	PPR FP/G
2017/GB	15	5.9	11	15.7%	50%	3.5	32.1	9.13
2016/GB	16	9.5	12.2	24.5%	68%	6.1	78.6	19.13
2014/GB	16	9.4	11.4	28.2%	88%	6.1	94.9	20.5

***All Stats are provided by Pro Football Reference, Airyards.com, and Pro Football Focus

Jared Cook

Jared Cook has proven a reliable safety valve for Derek Carr and the Raiders offense since he joined the team last year. He had a healthy 85 targets last year. He is also above league average at catching the ball 5 to 30 yards downfield. However, the average depth of target was at 9.2 yards last year, look for the Raiders to look for him more downfield.

I am not starting Cook this week unless he is my only tight end or playing in a 14+ team league. I have him as a TE2 with upside. If there is a perceived weakness of the Rams defense on paper, it would be their linebacking corps. Look for Cook to exploit possible one on one matchups on linebackers down the field.

Year/Team	G	Targ/G	aDoT	% Team Targ.	RACR	Y/G	Rec/G	PPR FP/G
2017/OAK	16	5.4	9.2	15%	85%	43	3.4	8.4
2016/GB	10	5.1	10.2	9%	72%	37.7	3	7.3
2015/STL	16	4.7	8.5	15.9%	75%	30.1	3	5.3

***All Stats are provided by Pro Football Reference, Airyards.com, and Pro Football Focus

Jalen Richard

Jalen Richard has always looked explosive. He has been in a battle the last two years with DeAndre Washington. Richard is a pass catching back that you want to get into space. Look to see how he is utilized this week to see if he may have a consistent 3rd down back role to play this year.

Seth Roberts/Brandon LaFell

Seth Roberts will be the WR3 in this week’s game after the Raiders parted ways with Martavis Bryant last week. Roberts played the same position last year with results not suitable for fantasy. The Raiders brought in Branden LaFell with intentions of having him eventually filling in the WR3 role. LaFell has been fantasy relevant in the not so distant past, so he’s worth a mental not. Neither is currently on the fantasy radar, but it may behoove you to see how this one shakes out for a sneaky waiver wire add later in the year or bye week fill in.

-Kenny Hyttenhove