OPPO Highlights: Week 4

Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) analyzes the best fantasy football opportunities from Week 4, and identifies underperformers and overperformers for the season.

Each week, I’ll use my OPPO metric (OPportunity POints; data found here) to go through who had the most valuable opportunities of the week, who has been scoring less than their looks would suggest, and who has been overperforming the opportunities they’ve been given.

 

Highest OPPO

 

Josh Jacobs came through in a big way for his teams, earning 34.5 fantasy points on 26.6 OPPO. He received 28(!!!) carries and 6 targets. All told, he was expected to earn 4.8 catches, 145.4 total yards, and 1.2 touchdowns.

Cooper Kupp unsurprisingly led all players in OPPO, with 28.7, while returning a solid 26.2 fantasy points. Matthew Stafford couldn’t take his eyes off of Kupp: he fed him a league-high 19 targets, which were good for an expectation of 13.2 catches, 119.9 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns.

The tight end position had a surprise OPPO leader this week, with T.J. Hockenson earning 24.6 OPPO and turning that into 37.9(!) fantasy points. With target-hounds Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift out with injuries, Hockenson was the recipient of 12 targets in the Lions’ high-scoring battle with the Seahawks. Those targets typically net 7.9 catches, 93.1 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns.

 

OPPO Underperformers

 

In this inaugural underperformer list, I’d be remiss if I didn’t include Joe Mixon. Mixon is 2nd in the NFL with 82 carries and has also received the 3rd-most targets (24) for a running back. These looks should have resulted in easy RB1 value, with 22.8 OPPO per game, but he has only returned 14.3 points per game. Even if he’s bad, and not just unlucky, the number of opportunities he’s being fed is absolutely elite, and his Week 4 results look like a step in the right direction for him and those who roster him.

Even though he’s a Top-10 WR with 18.3 points per game, Davante Adams still has room for improvement. He has underperformed his opportunity in EVERY game this season (including his 30.1-point Week 1!), with his opportunities resulting in a league-leading 23.1 OPPO per game. He’s been a great WR1 and should only get better.

Tyler Higbee is the patron saint of OPPO through the first 4 weeks. Despite being drafted in only 52% of Yahoo leagues, he has returned great value from the start (TE5, with 12.3 points per game). Even though he’s easily beating his draft slot, he’s still underperforming! His TE-leading 36 targets have earned 14.9 OPPO per game, the 3rd-highest value of any TE.

 

OPPO Overperformers

 

Nick Chubb has been a force so far this year, with 21.4 fantasy points per game. He’s been a big play machine on the ground, with 459 yards on 81 carries (a fantastic 5.67 yards per carry) and a league-leading 5 rushing touchdowns. He’s an extremely talented player, but those values are all very high, and I’d expect him to put up numbers closer to his 15.5 OPPO per game going forward.

Stefon Diggs has been another home run hitter this year. He’s WR2 overall, with 23.9 points per game, despite just 18.3 OPPO per game. He’s caught 100+ yards more than expected and ~1 touchdown more than his targets usually earn. He’s a great player, with a great QB in Josh Allen, but he may not continue putting up WR2 overall value on his WR8 overall OPPO.

Will Dissly has easily been the most opportunistic TE through 4 weeks. He’s earned 10.4 points per game, thanks primarily to 12 catches and 3 touchdowns from just 12 targets (100% catch rate! A 25% touchdown rate!). The targets he’s received usually result in less than 1 touchdown, and return an unplayable 5.2 OPPO.

 

Don’t agree? Think someone else has been even luckier/unluckier this season? Let me know at @blandalytics!

 

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

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