OPPO Highlights: Week 6

Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) analyzes the best fantasy football opportunities from Week 6, and identifies underperformers and overperformers for the season.

Each week, I’ll use my OPPO metric (OPportunity POints; data found here) to go through who had the most valuable opportunities of the week, who has been scoring less than their looks would suggest, and who has been overperforming the opportunities they’ve been given.

 

Highest OPPO

 

Brandon Staley must’ve read last week’s OPPO Highlights, because he fed my running back overperformer, Austin Ekeler, the most OPPO this week with 30.5. Fittingly, Ekeler underperformed that OPPO total, returning “only” 24.3 fantasy points. In a game where neither team could consistently get the ball moving, Los Angeles gave Ekeler all he could handle, with 16 targets (for a running back!) and 14 carries. These opportunities were expected to yield 12.4 catches (2nd most by any player this year!), 146.2 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns.

The Dolphins continue to sling the ball around no matter who’s under center, and Tyreek Hill is reaping the rewards. He earned 29.7 fantasy points on 24.2 OPPO, despite not seeing the ball in dangerous locations on the field. Hill saw 15 targets out of the 47 (!) passing attempts by Miami this week (32% target share), and those targets should have returned 9.5 catches, 131.4 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns.

Mark Andrews continues to be the focal point of Baltimore’s passing game, earning 11 of the team’s 32 targets (34%) and 23.6 points on 25.2 OPPO. He had an even higher share of the team’s expected receiving yards (41%) and touchdowns (44%) this week, with his expectations being 6.5 catches, 103.9 yards, and 1.4 touchdowns.

 

OPPO Underperformers

 

Alvin Kamara continues to see an elite 17.7 OPPO per game, and hasn’t quite met that lofty expectation (15.2 fantasy points per game). Case in point: even though he had 18.4 points this week, he still underperformed his 23.6 OPPO. The Saints love to allot their carries in inscrutable ways (Taysom Hill‘s 5 carries this week say hello!), but Kamara gives his rotating carousel of quarterbacks a consistent threat out of the backfield, and they continue to feed him. I think his results will yield more points going forward if he sees similar usage.

It’s a whirlwind of emotions for Rondale Moore after Week 6. Let’s start with the bad: DeAndre Hopkins is coming back, and Robbie Anderson was acquired. Hopkins is a bonafide WR1 and will likely see the lion’s share of targets in Arizona. It remains to be seen how Anderson will fit in, but he’ll definitely take some targets. Thankfully, there’s good news for Moore: he’s been underperforming his targets (13.5 OPPO per game vs 9.2 points per game). His targets generally result in bigger chunks of yardage and should have resulted in a touchdown, and I doubt he keeps rushing for negative yards. There’s also sad news for Cardinals fans: Marquise Brown is injured, and could potentially miss the rest of the season. This should keep Moore as the WR2 for Arizona, and I don’t see his opportunities changing much this week.

I could have written this blurb any week this season, but it’s time to focus on Kyle Pitts. He’s been crushing the hopes and dreams of the Atlanta Falcons and his fantasy teams since he was drafted last year, but I think his fortunes will start to turn around. This week was already a boost to his fantasy results, thanks to finally catching a touchdown. He’s still underperforming in all categories (catches, yards, and touchdowns), but his usage combined with his talent should yield a startable TE going forward (which he somehow hasn’t been most weeks this season). I expect to see him consistently put up games that look more like his 9.6 OPPO per game, if not better.

 

OPPO Overperformers

 

Dalvin Cook has been the recipient of some touchdown luck. Based on his carries and targets, he’d be expected to have 2.5 touchdowns, but he’s actually scored 4 times. 1.5 touchdowns may not seem like a lot, but that’s a difference of 1.5 points per game. This luck, along with some understandable overperformance on his expected yards (he’s a talented player, after all), explains how he’s scoring 14.8 points per game on 12.7 OPPO per game. He’s still a start-every-week player, but I’d expect him to be more of a mid-range RB2 than the RB1 he’s been so far.

Jakobi Meyers is snatching up the targets he sees. He’s caught 24 of his 31 targets this season (including 4-for-4 in Week 6). This impressive catch rate seems unsustainable, with those targets historically resulting in 19.8 catches. If his catch rate regresses, you can expect his yardage and touchdown totals to regress, as well. He is still the primary focus of whatever New England’s passing offense ends up being, but I anticipate that he’ll perform at a level closer to his 12.8 OPPO per game, instead of his 15.7 points per game.

It may not feel like it, but Dallas Goedert has been playing above expectations. He’s almost spot-on with his receptions (25.5 expected vs 26 actual) and touchdowns (0.8 expected vs 1 actual), but he’s vastly exceeded his yardage expectation. For a tight end, he’s seen an impressive 127.9 yards above expectation (229.1 expected vs 357 actual). It’s not some huge plays skewing his numbers, either, but sustained extra yardage on almost every catch. I’d expect him to perform closer to his 8.9 OPPO per game, instead of his yardage-inflated 11.3 points per game.

 

Don’t agree? Think someone else has been even luckier/unluckier this season? Let me know at @blandalytics!

 

(Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

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